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Newly tagged Invest 91L in the Central American Gyre heading towards MX/TX, a slow and sprawling flood threat. Bahamas hybrid well E of FL 10%/30% odd and expected to track back to the W across FL or SE US this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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bobbi
Unregistered




nope..there has never been discussion on shear [Re: doug]
      #17715 - Wed Aug 04 2004 03:44 PM

Find it rather amazing a wave can stay this together vs such strong shear.

And..have not hear anything from official sources for the last few days regarding the shear. Infact...they keep saying it should intensify and has a favorable environment. It doesnt because its far south of where it might have had a better environment.

Smart to keep a watch on it.. think it has a closed circulation somewhere or it would have fallen apart.

Circulation causes waves to be somewhat "rooted" to a path vs a tumble weed that gets blown away.

my thoughts..


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James88
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Alex looks good [Re: bobbi]
      #17716 - Wed Aug 04 2004 03:48 PM

Check out Alex on satellite imagery - he's got a really distinct eye. He almost looks better than he did yesterday.

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LI Phil
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Re: Alex looks good [Re: James88]
      #17720 - Wed Aug 04 2004 04:10 PM

Indeed, Alex does have that classic look. And he's headed straight for you & Rich B.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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James88
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Re: Alex looks good [Re: LI Phil]
      #17721 - Wed Aug 04 2004 04:13 PM

So he is. If the current track is to be believed, he may track into Spain or France, but any jump to the morth in the track would take him straight to the British Isles. Things could get interesting in a few days.

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LI Phil
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Re: Alex looks good [Re: James88]
      #17722 - Wed Aug 04 2004 04:28 PM

Check the NHC 5 Day

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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bobbi
Unregistered




alex looking real cute [Re: James88]
      #17723 - Wed Aug 04 2004 04:30 PM

love it.. just staring at how beautiful these storms can look sometimes at such a high latitude

very nice... remember Alex next time y'all want to count out a storm real early on


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James88
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Re: Alex looks good [Re: LI Phil]
      #17724 - Wed Aug 04 2004 04:34 PM

I hadn't seen that map. If it turns to the right slightly it will take it right up the Bristol Channel and River Severn estuary to the county where Rich B and I live. This could be really interesting if it pans out.

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Tropics Guy
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Re: HF's TD2 Challenge [Re: LI Phil]
      #17726 - Wed Aug 04 2004 04:40 PM

Well, think i'll take HF's challenge on TD#2/wave. Think that there still may be some kind of weak circulation there, maybe at the mid-levels, regardless don't think it will get going until somewhere in the ctrl or west carib, then it may be affected by the trough and picked up north, assuming of course it doesn't fall apart first.


--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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rickonboat
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Re: Alex looks good [Re: James88]
      #17728 - Wed Aug 04 2004 04:42 PM

"Will go with the speed demon theory...misses the trof...survives the graveyard...gets into the GOM. Then heads straight for Rickonboat as a CAT V."

Love it...I should be so lucky.

The tropical depression #2, IMHO, will develop if it slows down...no news there.

three possibilities left..
1) dissipates
2) stays west and misses us...because sheer keeps it from developing
3)...hangs in there...reaches the western Caribbean...finds a nice environment...quickly strengthens...and becomes the mother of all storms....quickly bee-lining for the beautiful city of Mobile...of course, as a cat 5


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LI Phil
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Re: HF's TD2 Challenge [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #17729 - Wed Aug 04 2004 04:43 PM

TG & CAT V,

Put em in the forum, guys, or they won't count.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by LI Phil (Wed Aug 04 2004 04:46 PM)


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Rich B
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Re: Alex looks good [Re: rickonboat]
      #17731 - Wed Aug 04 2004 04:49 PM

Hey guys,
i had noticed the track for Alex brings his extratropical remnants to my doorstep, and James88's too, in a few days could be interesting weather here if it pans out, but its not forecast to be a strong storm system by then. He certainly does lok good on the latest visibles though, classic

TD 2 looks more like a strong wave than a depression to me at present. However with Martinique reporting sustained winds of 35 mph there must be something trying to hold the system together. Like so many have said, it needs to slow down before it can really get going.

Regards as always

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Tropics Guy
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Re: HF's TD2 Challenge [Re: LI Phil]
      #17733 - Wed Aug 04 2004 04:52 PM

It's in there Phil

TG

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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joepub1
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Re: HF's TD2 Challenge [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #17734 - Wed Aug 04 2004 05:07 PM

Tossed mine in there too.

I'm thinking the trough, instead of clearing the storm away from the US, does a half-hearted job and leaves us with a developing TS south , and maybe just east, of FL. It won't do any harm to development by slowing it down, and will prop. give it a chance to exhale some as well. Try to think of the trof as a positive thing, if you want to see this become Bonnie. I don't think shear plays any part in this yet, unless she starts going 30 mph and shears herself to pieces, but hopefully the trof kicks in before that. She is already getting a SW to NE look to her, leaving me to believe that a slight move to the north is not that far away.


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cyclone_head
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Re: Alex looks good [Re: rickonboat]
      #17735 - Wed Aug 04 2004 05:12 PM

rickonboat says....
>"Will go with the speed demon theory...misses the >trof...survives the graveyard...gets into the GOM. Then >heads straight for Rickonboat as a CAT V."

>Love it...I should be so lucky.

If you are on a boat....whatever mooring you have won't withstand a CAT V. Why on earth would you "love it"??


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Anonymous
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Re: Alex looks good [Re: cyclone_head]
      #17736 - Wed Aug 04 2004 05:24 PM

Check out the radar loop from NC yesterday as Alex goes by.

http://intellicast.com/Local/USLocalWide...mp;prodnav=none


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joepub1
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Re: Alex looks good [Re: cyclone_head]
      #17737 - Wed Aug 04 2004 05:37 PM

<<If you are on a boat....whatever mooring you have won't withstand a CAT V. Why on earth would you "love it"?? >>

Always keep a grain or two of salt around for 'Cat5 Rick'. Every storm is a Cat5 headed for Mobile. It takes some time, but you could end up liking his sense of humor. It took me a couple of years.....

Besides that, his forecast may not be wrong......

First rain band, he's five states away from Mobile anyway.


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James88
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Re: Alex looks good [Re: joepub1]
      #17739 - Wed Aug 04 2004 05:53 PM

If I may say so, TD #2 looks a lot like a wave at the moment than ever before - it's pretty stretched out. Even so, it could slowly organise over the next day or two. I really do think it could go either way at the moment.

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rickonboat
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Re: Alex looks good [Re: cyclone_head]
      #17740 - Wed Aug 04 2004 06:04 PM

I read an article about Hurricane Andrew, and have a good friend who went down there for volunteer work. It looked like a nuclear warhead.

If a cat 3 hit....my 34' trawler is toast. At least with a cat 5, I won't waste time trying to shore up the lines. ha! I will just get further inland a bit, and come back later. Andrew almost broke the insurance industry. It's amazing, the beach front buildings that have sprung up, even in the last few years. A heavy storm, and there is no way they could get everyone off of the coast. They say that they would open up both lanes...but still. The growth is way too much to withstand a major hurricane, let alone a category 4 or 5
We all know the disaster is looming. Just a question of when. I was in Mobile...my first year in the south, in 1979 when a strong Cat 3...Frederic..hit us. I will never forget it, and have been hooked ever since. The eye came over Mobile...we got the calm...then the opposite winds..the whole thing...

If an Andrew hit...body bags..

I love following the things...but who in their right mind would want a 5 to hit their home?....not me....


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LI Phil
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Re: Alex looks good [Re: joepub1]
      #17741 - Wed Aug 04 2004 06:11 PM

<<If you are on a boat....whatever mooring you have won't withstand a CAT V. Why on earth would you "love it"?? >>

Always keep a grain or two of salt around for 'Cat5 Rick'. Every storm is a Cat5 headed for Mobile. It takes some time, but you could end up liking his sense of humor. It took me a couple of years.....

Besides that, his forecast may not be wrong.

Hey Joepub: That was MY forecast

LOL

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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LI Phil
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TD2 [Re: LI Phil]
      #17745 - Wed Aug 04 2004 06:55 PM

Bobbi's favorite loop seems to show the dry air ahead of TD2 to be lessening and moving westward...will be interesting to see if this enhances possible development...also check out all that dry air BEHIND the wave.

TD2 WV Loop

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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