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Western Gulf and NW Caribbean increasingly favored for development potential over the next week or so.
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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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James88
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Alex Strengthens Again [Re: LI Phil]
      #17746 - Wed Aug 04 2004 07:17 PM

The latest T-numbers put Alex at 90kts - the strongest he's ever been. Well, he does look great on satellite.

Edited by James88 (Wed Aug 04 2004 07:17 PM)


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jth
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TD2 [Re: James88]
      #17747 - Wed Aug 04 2004 07:30 PM

If there is a circulation, I beleive it may be even further south than they say now. Looking at the latest visibles, it appears there may be a slightly exposed LLC around 12.3 63.9. I may be seeing things, but this location would make since given that the system is being sheered from the south.

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LI Phil
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Re: Alex Strengthens Again [Re: James88]
      #17748 - Wed Aug 04 2004 07:37 PM

90kts=104mph...that's only seven mph shy of MAJOR status...wonder if Alex could actually get that strong (or would NHC even bump him up). That could skew everyone's numbers for the season...

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hurricane_run
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Re: Alex Strengthens Again [Re: James88]
      #17749 - Wed Aug 04 2004 08:01 PM

look at Alex's eye

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summercyclone
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Re: "TD 2" [Re: LI Phil]
      #17750 - Wed Aug 04 2004 08:02 PM

Will likely be an open wave at 5, but, it has a good chance to regenerate. We have seen a number of storms in the last few years go through this process, in the carib.

sc


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javlin
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Re: TD2 [Re: jth]
      #17751 - Wed Aug 04 2004 08:06 PM

I saw that too JTH hard to put a finger on it though.Bobbi's little girl is looking rough right now but you know she gets frisky at night.If the wave makes it to 70W without much movement to the N then maybe the troph won't catch it.The wave continues to defy the models isn't that because of how weak the system is and it's speed.Look at her tonite back to tread mill.

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cyclone_head
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Re: Alex looks good [Re: LI Phil]
      #17752 - Wed Aug 04 2004 08:09 PM

LI Phil, joepub and CAT V Rick,

I was laughing when I posted that response. I have been with CFHC for 3 years and always look forward to reading his posts. All in fun....


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LI Phil
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Re: TD2 [Re: javlin]
      #17753 - Wed Aug 04 2004 08:14 PM

>>> Bobbi's little girl is looking rough right now but you know she gets frisky at night.

LOL. That's going in the comedy forum tonight. The double entendre is just priceless...

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bobbi
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Re: TD2 [Re: LI Phil]
      #17754 - Wed Aug 04 2004 08:18 PM

Thanks Phil for the Mid-Day WV Loop break...

Even I would probably pretty much go with it being an open wave at this point. But, my reasoning is not just the shear. I think she's lower than we realize and that a good part of what would be her circulation (if she had bothered to intensify) is over land.. namely South America. They have had showers all along the coast more than usual. And, the last wave to take this path cruised right into the top of South America. Jim talked about this on HurricaneCity but no one wanted to deal with the fact that the part left wasn't the main part and most people tracked it until it reached a neighborhood bar in Oklahoma and ordered Poneys for dinner. But, I think Jim was right in part on that last southern cruiser.. SA did inhibit it's development. And, I think with TD 2 there is some interaction also. The bottom half seems to have disapeered. The top half is mostly so large because its being sheared SW/NE.. making it look bigger than it is. The wave is outrunning itself. GOD I HATE WHEN THEY DO THAT!

So... thanks for a good look. Appreciate it.

And, you are right...there is dry air everywhere. And, if she doesn't lift .. a second battle with shear that would knock the innards out of whatever is left with it.

Think we should call it a day a half an hour early and pretend its 5 o' clock somewhere.

Lastly... since Alex did intensify SO much and is taking a somewhat low path across the Atlantic.. am afraid it may interfere for a bit with development of CV waves.. something to think on.

cheers
Bobbi


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James88
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Re: TD2 [Re: LI Phil]
      #17755 - Wed Aug 04 2004 08:20 PM

Oh great, you are doing another one of those today. They're great!

Alex looks better than ever now, and he's displaying a good example of a stadium-effect eye. I wonder if he could make major hurricane status - a final surprise from an unpredictable storm.


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LI Phil
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Beautiful [Re: James88]
      #17756 - Wed Aug 04 2004 08:39 PM

Alex

Anyone think this is a CAT III?

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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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James88
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TD #2 - RIP [Re: LI Phil]
      #17757 - Wed Aug 04 2004 08:43 PM

I think it could be - looks more organised than a CAT 2. BTW, TD #2 is no more. It has degenerated into a tropical wave:-

...Depression degenerates to a tropical wave in the eastern
Caribbean Sea...

Reports from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft this morning...and
satellite imagery this afternoon...indicate that Tropical
Depression Two has lost its surface circulation and has degenerated
into a tropical wave.

Perhaps it will regenrate. I wouldn't be surprised if it did.


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summercyclone
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Re: Give Rabbit the carrot! [Re: LI Phil]
      #17758 - Wed Aug 04 2004 08:43 PM

Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 6


Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on August 04, 2004



...Depression degenerates to a tropical wave in the eastern
Caribbean Sea...
Reports from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft this morning...and
satellite imagery this afternoon...indicate that Tropical
Depression Two has lost its surface circulation and has degenerated
into a tropical wave.
At 5 PM AST...2100z...the remnants of Tropical Depression Two were
located near latitude 13.5 north...longitude 63.5 west or about 380
miles...610 km...south-southeast of San Juan Puerto Rico.

The remnants of the depression are moving toward the west near 23
mph ...37 km/hr. A west-northwest motion is expected over the next
24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds associated with the wave are near 35 mph...
55 km/hr...with higher gusts. This system still has the potential
to bring gusty winds and heavy rains to Hispaniola over the next
couple of days. An Air Force reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft
is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow morning for signs
of regeneration.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb...29.85 inches.

Repeating the 5 PM AST position...13.5 N... 63.5 W. Movement
toward...west near 23 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1011 mb.

This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system unless regeneration occurs.

Forecaster Franklin


sc


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hurricane_run
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Alex [Re: summercyclone]
      #17760 - Wed Aug 04 2004 08:53 PM

Alex strenghtened. to 90kts. 970mb pres.

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LI Phil
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Re: Give Rabbit the carrot! [Re: summercyclone]
      #17761 - Wed Aug 04 2004 09:00 PM

I'm not ready to stick a fork in him, I mean it, yet.

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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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James88
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Re: Give Rabbit the carrot! [Re: LI Phil]
      #17762 - Wed Aug 04 2004 09:07 PM

I really wouldn't write this one off yet - the convection has been persistent and it has maintained some organisation for the past couple of days. I think it's too well organised to be able to stick a fork in it with a reasonable degree of certainty. In the last 3 years we have had 3 systems that have degenerated, only to emerge again a short while later:-

Chantal, 2001
Isidore, 2002
Lili, 2002

This system could develop a LLC, as they come and go with ease in young and developing systems. Also, imagine if this wave were to make it to the Gulf - strong potential for development there. I would not take my eyes off this system for the next day or two.

Just my humble opinion.


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bobbi
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for now.. it's done. [Re: LI Phil]
      #17763 - Wed Aug 04 2004 09:08 PM

Come on ....when I say to pull the plug.. it's pretty much over for today.

Could leave behind the part that's lagging behind, join a gym in Aruba, do some butt lifts and work on her overall muscle tone and show us something before hitting Jamaica. But at the pace she's going she's not going to even notice those mountains in Central America.

Shows you.. one should never drink and drive.. never mix meds and stay off those herbal cocktails. She was like on speed or something.

Not saying she won't find a way to get it back.. wouldn't count her out so fast. But for today.. at 5.. she is an open wave.

Sorry Phil but looks like Rabbit got this one right. So far.


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LI Phil
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Re: for now.. it's done. [Re: bobbi]
      #17764 - Wed Aug 04 2004 09:13 PM

I'm sticking with this one until the ship goes down, and I'm the captain.

Oh Bobbi, the comedy forum will be sixpence the richer tonight.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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bobbi
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historical similarities... [Re: LI Phil]
      #17765 - Wed Aug 04 2004 09:37 PM

okay..here's a post that even Ed will love..
no humor and no silliness..

Two years to look at that have had similar storms that two waves this year followed without repeating their success.

One is 1971... notice that year the first two storms formed where Alex did (give or take) and who knows how many waves skimmed the southern route w/o making it to the memory books.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1971/

Also.. similar year pattern wise I think and similar storm ..though strong down there to look at.. 1963

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1963/


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Anonymous
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Devils advocate [Re: bobbi]
      #17767 - Wed Aug 04 2004 10:26 PM

Looking at the last 6 or so visible images, there is a clear circulation still visible. in fact it has gotten better the last few hours. Also appears some of the convection is slowing down around this area. Just take a look. Use the visible sat located on the opening page.

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