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Tropical Storm Warning extended north along coastal TX to San Luis Pass. Sprawling Storm 01L will likely be named Alberto within 24 hours.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 294 (Idalia) , Major: 294 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 294 (Idalia) Major: 294 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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bobbi
Unregistered




Re: ps..question regarding outflow boundaries and inflow [Re: Rabbit]
      #17839 - Thu Aug 05 2004 07:09 PM

thanks, perfect

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summercyclone
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Re: Surprises in the basin [Re: Unregistered User]
      #17840 - Thu Aug 05 2004 07:09 PM

Yeah, see those lines of cloud, cloud arcs actually, out in front of the tropical wave---rope clouds. Bad sign, indicates collapsing convection...and shear is blowing the tops off.....this sure doesn't look like August, it is an el Nino related effect....

little cluster off Fl, has the same look, rope clouds expanding toward the west.

92L is stretching out a little, but also building convection..shear evident there too.....

If the shear doesn't lay off, it'll be mid and high latitude storms only, which is a n el Nino signature too.....

sc


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summercyclone
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Re: Surprises in the basin [Re: javlin]
      #17841 - Thu Aug 05 2004 07:12 PM

Heat is why there pressure is so low--and the wave axis nearby, gets very hot there.

sc


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bobbi
Unregistered




okay..calm down.. [Re: summercyclone]
      #17842 - Thu Aug 05 2004 07:19 PM

Someone cries El Nino around here and every one suddenly comes out of the water screaming SHARK!!!

Do think El Nino is starting. Not sure that we won't have CV .. think we will.

Personally (and I've said this to a few friends) I think the reason the GULF June/July season could be related to El Nino even though its not apparent yet. Reminded me of 97.. Maybe like pressure drops before winds intensify there are signs out there.

But...wouldn't shut down the door on the season.

Atlantic/CV has a problem (if any) because of dust.. no reason betsy/andrew storms couldn't form.

First place to see signs of El Nino would be closest to its home base.. Carib.. Gulf.

Good explanation on outflow boundaries. Always knew that but knew it instinctually I think.. never had a real crisp explanation.

breathe a bit on the El Nino thing before the powers that be get upset we aren't talking on topic.

and..may I say here.. think we should have an El Nino board for news related articles and observations

thanks, bobbi


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bobbi
Unregistered




Re: okay..calm down.. clarification [Re: bobbi]
      #17844 - Thu Aug 05 2004 07:22 PM

reason that we didn't have a normal Gulf/BOC/Carib season in June/July was because of a possible El Nino forming.

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Rabbit
Weather Master


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Re: okay..calm down.. clarification [Re: bobbi]
      #17845 - Thu Aug 05 2004 07:28 PM

I still think there were two or three storms before August that weren't classified

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Hardcore
Unregistered




Re: okay..calm down.. clarification [Re: Rabbit]
      #17847 - Thu Aug 05 2004 07:33 PM

Quote:

I still think there were two or three storms before August that weren't classified




I don't think so . We here the same thing year after year from Joe bastardi .



http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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Robert
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Re: okay..calm down.. clarification [Re: Hardcore]
      #17851 - Thu Aug 05 2004 07:50 PM

LOL People its only august 5th the verde season does not even realy start till september, The signature in the pacific is the same its been for the past 3 years at this time wich is god only knows id like to call it nuetral. There is a build up of warmer then normal water in the central pacific but there is still a large la nina cold tongue streching out off equadore for a long ways. Granted the SOI is indicating that a possibly weak to moderate el nino is on the way it will not happen till late fall early winter possibly changing the outcome of 2005 but not for 2004 excpect a season much like 2000 - 2003 this year.

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Rabbit
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the unclassified [Re: Hardcore]
      #17852 - Thu Aug 05 2004 07:51 PM

Subtropical Storm--May 25
Subtropical Storm--Jun 18
possible Tropcial Depression or Tropcial Storm--Jul 9
Tropcial Storm


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Rabbit
Weather Master


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to all the El Niño speculators... [Re: Rabbit]
      #17854 - Thu Aug 05 2004 08:11 PM

remember that in 1998, the count by August 5 was 1/0/0, and TD2 (which became Bonnie) didn't even form until Aug 19. In the last week, there have been 2 TDs, possibly on the way to a third

here are a few recent examples of late starts in active years:
1996: no August storms until Aug 19 (Dolly)
1998: Bonnie formed Aug 20; Total: 14
1999: Bret formed Aug 20; total: 12
2000: Beryl formed Aug 14; Total: 14
2001: Chantal, the first Cape Verde system, formed Aug 15; Total storms: 15

Also, if an El Niño were in existence, the Eastern Pacific would have had more than four storms by now, and would likely not have gone all of June without so much as a depression; last time that happened was 1969, which also had a late start in the Atlantic:
no TD until July 25
the first hurricane, Blanche, was Aug 11, 8 days after this year
the first major hurricane, Camille, was Aug 15, 10 days after this year

I am by no means predicting a season as active as 1969 or another Camille, but the evidence points to an active season, not a quiet one.


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rickonboat
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el nino shmino [Re: Rabbit]
      #17855 - Thu Aug 05 2004 08:24 PM

the wave seems to be holding together all day, quite nicely. Is it starting to take shape? Doesn't appear that the tops are being blown off of it by shearing winds aloft.

I think this has the look of surviving....

Camille wannabeeee?


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: to all the El Niño speculators... [Re: Rabbit]
      #17856 - Thu Aug 05 2004 08:26 PM

Looks like former TD 2 is going to dissipate...getting shredded by the strong jet in the C Carib...not sure about 92L---could get upgraded at 5, but, if they are being cautious at NHC, not.

sc

Look at what is brroiling over the Canal Zone---high overhead, promoting jet that is shredding Bonnie wannabe.


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Steve
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Re: to all the El Niño speculators... [Re: Anonymous]
      #17857 - Thu Aug 05 2004 08:47 PM

Yeah, but look at the upper air progs. That jet (and the ULL) is moving SW out front of the system. Down the line, it shouldn't have much of an effect. For now, it's just holding the system in check and disallowing recurvature.
------------------------------------------------
As to El Nino, there are mixed signals. Nino 3-4 is definitely in a warm phase. But this is offset by the cold phase in the Eastern Pacific. There are occasional bursts of westerlies down there but it shouldn't have much of an effect (enhancing or supressive) on the bulk of the 2004 season.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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doug
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Re: to all the El Niño speculators... [Re: Steve]
      #17858 - Thu Aug 05 2004 08:55 PM

If it does refire the main center is still south of 15N that's where some convection is persisting.

--------------------
doug


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summercyclone
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Re: 92L [Re: doug]
      #17859 - Thu Aug 05 2004 09:03 PM

Could have been upgraded at 5, structure has improved, but, still very small, and a bit stretched out. There is some sw and w shear just ahead of it, doesn't look too bad.

Although they could upgrade at 11, I'll say 5am or 11am tomorrow, assuming it holds together, of course!

sc


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PFSThunder
Weather Watcher


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Re: to all the El Niño speculators... [Re: doug]
      #17860 - Thu Aug 05 2004 09:07 PM

For all those people worried about lack of storms should remember that TS and hurricanes form to rid the tropics of excess heat and carry this energy to the Northern latitudes. The water temps have been above normal all season so I would guess this translates to an above average season in my eyes.

--------------------
Go Boilermakers


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Rabbit
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91L [Re: PFSThunder]
      #17862 - Thu Aug 05 2004 09:11 PM

over and done with as far as i am concerned

dissipating


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ErinAndOpal95
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Re: 91L [Re: Rabbit]
      #17863 - Thu Aug 05 2004 09:17 PM

No chance of 91L pushing on through to the Gulf and reforming tomorrow or the next day?

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: 91L [Re: Rabbit]
      #17864 - Thu Aug 05 2004 09:18 PM

td 2 is not over and done with. conditions will become better for it in the next. 24 hr.

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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: 91L [Re: Rabbit]
      #17865 - Thu Aug 05 2004 09:20 PM

Could be Rabbit. But it will re-fire again tomorrow, and might just be the energy that could cause something to brew near the fizzled out trough that will stretch from the Bahamas through the GOM this weekend. Gone and done with is the easy answer (high probability). Its the 30% chance I look for .

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