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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: 06Z Tropics Shot [Re: danielw]
      #17893 - Fri Aug 06 2004 06:55 AM

Yet another satellite shot, new source. Shot includes just about everything in the N Atlantic. Notice the new Tropical Wave on the far right side.
http://meso912.gsfc.nasa.gov/goeseast/tropics/color/0408060615G12.jpg

Here is the main page for the shot. Scroll to the bottom for the most recent shot.
http://meso912.gsfc.nasa.gov/goeseast/tropics/color/



Edited by danielw (Fri Aug 06 2004 06:58 AM)


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


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Alex heading for the UK? [Re: danielw]
      #17894 - Fri Aug 06 2004 10:21 AM

With Alex weakening and becoming extratropical it looks set to impact the UK's weather late this weekend and into next week. Our Meteorological Office has issued the following advance warning of severe weather:

THE MET OFFICE IS FORECASTING A DEEP DEPRESSION TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED WEST OF IRELAND OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO NORTHERN IRELAND, WALES AND SOUTHWEST
ENGLAND LATER ON SUNDAY EXTENDING TO SOUTHWEST SCOTLAND AND
NORTHWEST ENGLAND BY MONDAY. DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY THUNDERY WITH SOME VIOLENT
THUNDERSTORMS AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARDS
ACROSS THE COUNTRY, WHILE DRIER BUT SHOWERY WEATHER FOLLOWS FROM THE
WEST. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO
EXCEED 50MM IN MANY PLACES. LOCALISED FLOODING IS LIKELY.

If you want to keep track of the latest UK Watches or Warnings as ex-Alex threatens the you can visit the UK Met Office site.

Regards

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


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There is a brief low in atlantic activity [Re: Rich B]
      #17895 - Fri Aug 06 2004 10:24 AM

But when the wet phase of MJO arrives by mid to late august then things wil really heat up.

Dr Gray has made his august outlook and if you want to see why he downgrades the numbers a tad go to storm forum where it is posted.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: There is a brief low in atlantic activity [Re: Cycloneye]
      #17897 - Fri Aug 06 2004 11:41 AM

Keep an eye on 92L. I believe its our next TD already, and should stay on a westward course for the foreseeable future due to ridging that should be strengthening as the east coast trough lifts out. Cheers!!

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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Administrative Post - Clarifications [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #17898 - Fri Aug 06 2004 12:42 PM

"If I post a statement that Invest 92L will become a TD in two days and will rapidly intensify to hurricane status in four days...and never say anything else, i.e., what prompted me to feel that way, you would be all over my case. HankFrank and I don't care too much for these types of posts, especially those that are intended to aggrevate, so please don't make them. Their survival rate on the Board could become shorter than TD2.

4. There were some good meteorological posts today. There were also some bad meteorological posts today - sometimes by the same individual?!? "

I had no idea this would turn into a big brother is watching forum. If someone wants to give a gut feel, and doesn't have the meteorological knowledge to back it up...what of it?...shall we limit this to the wordy and "intelligent" moderators and weather watchers, and leave the novices out, like unwanted peasants?...

don't quite understand the point of moderating someone's feeling. This will quickly turn into just a few person's viewpoints, and thereby lose my interest altogether.


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Storm 2K [Re: rickonboat]
      #17899 - Fri Aug 06 2004 12:53 PM

What is the address to this website? Everyone keeps referring to it, but I haven't found it.

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ticka1
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Re: There is a brief low in atlantic activity [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #17900 - Fri Aug 06 2004 01:07 PM

I agree Steve. Satellite pictures of 92L are looking better and better. You say its going to stay on a westerly course? At least we will have something to watch this weekend.

--------------------
Join www.wildonweather.com/forum Message Board


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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Administrative Post - Clarifications [Re: rickonboat]
      #17901 - Fri Aug 06 2004 01:19 PM

Well, here, here and bully! I've been posting on this board since '96, and my gut often can be intuitive and sometimes not!

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bobbi
Unregistered




Clarifications-well put Rick [Re: rickonboat]
      #17902 - Fri Aug 06 2004 01:23 PM

Wow.. you took the words off my fingers that I was going to type and then thought, "why bother?" and didn't bother.

But, you did. And, prefer this comment does not get deleted as I do not want to have to send email to Rick as this is for the whole forum.

Sometimes we DO have a "gut" feeling and that is different from some kid signing on and saying "DUDE, THIS IS GONNA BE A MONSTER GOING TO JAX" I mean there are guidelines and suggestions and then there are enough rules to need a manual.

I'm really sorry but sometimes I get a gut feeling. And, I do have a really extensive background in meteorology and oceanography beyond the casual observer. I am sure my "gut" feeling is based on something I know or learned somewhere but sometimes I don't want to have to sit there trying to put it into proper meteorological jargon that will make some retired met on this board feel he is not wasting his time with 'stupid idiots" and that is the feeling some of us get at times.

This board should be a board for all of us. Those who are working in the field, those who are retiring, retired or aspire still to be professional mets. It should be a board for kids learning the ropes and mothers who want to do something other than shove soccer down their kids throats and grandmas who would rather track canes than knit baby blankets.

Sometimes someone might come on and know what they are talking about. A 5.5 on the scale of knowledge and look at some storm like Alex and say ... I got a feeling it can and will explode and might be a BIG hurricane. Maybe deep down they are thinking of Alberto or some other storm that did intensify at a high lat but they just don't want to sit and write a term paper giving proper research and footnotes. They just have a "gut" feeling.

Gut feelings are based on real knowledge usually. People who are intuitive learners and not by the books left brain people who have to find a reference in some book they saw somewhere before they would be sure to quote that source and etc.. We are left and right brain people. Why can't this board be for all of us.

I think the difference between some regular or newbie posting "got a feeling she's going to explode" is way different from "THIS MOMMAS GONNA TAKE OUT NAWLINS"

so please relax a bit and think of all of us on the board and our needs and that will contribute to a more user friendly board. If someone doesn't want to read through one of my long rambling posts (vs someone who finds it humorous) or one of Hank's long posts w/o punctuation (which others find informative) and if someone wants to read a two or three line post by someone who bothered to post that says "look at that wave, its going to be a storm soon" ..in my opinon "let them"

Save the editing for the really offensive posters and people who are out to stir up trouble.

My opinon.

Wouldn't have posted this w/o Rick's post but agree with him whole heatedly.

And, if you think I'm being heavy handed I have stopped myself from writing a whole slew of things that were:
a) didnt need to be said here
b) were a bit too blunt
c) extremely honest and true
d) all of the above

But, I'm feeling kind today. Honest.. but good and kind.
Bobbi


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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


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Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: Clarifications-well put Rick [Re: bobbi]
      #17903 - Fri Aug 06 2004 01:34 PM

If the old 02 is dead why does it still have T #'s. Not being ugly here just would like an explaination.

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Anonymous
Unregistered




still looking for Storm 2 K [Re: andy1tom]
      #17904 - Fri Aug 06 2004 01:51 PM

can someone please post the link

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: still looking for Storm 2 K [Re: Anonymous]
      #17905 - Fri Aug 06 2004 02:03 PM

Agree with Rick, but also I agree with ED. I think he's suggesting that those who come out anon and make some blanket statement of doom don't deserve the time of day and will be edited. Most registered or unregistered posters with aliases will be questioned and pressed for details if they make a similar assertion (however you spell it).

Here's your link to Storm 2 K. It's not to the homesite, just the Hurricane Hollow Message Board (Barometer Bob's old site's name). Couldn't you have just gone to Google? Heh
Storm 2 K

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


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Re: El Nino [Re: Steve]
      #17906 - Fri Aug 06 2004 02:23 PM

Interesting article on Yahoo about the return of El Nino later this year:
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=st...rkets_elnino_dc

TG

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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LI Phil
User


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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
My $.02 [Re: Steve]
      #17908 - Fri Aug 06 2004 02:32 PM

Gotta go with Steverino, there. It's the completely anon's who "chuck and duck" that are what bring down the board. However, I think it's perfectly acceptable to make a blanket statement, as long as you back it up with "just a gut feeling," "no meterological reasoning here," "reminds me of storm 03 from '72," etc. We're all here to learn and post relevant comments, and try to stay on topic.

If it seems like everybody is ganging up on Rabbit, it's not because he doesn't make sound meterological arguments (because he does), but it's the manner in which he conveys his sentiments. He may have more knowledge than many of us (but certainly not all). Civility and humility go a long way.

It's great to be right. It really is. But it's also quite humbling to be wrong (grumble). So, lets keep the forum civil and humble and we'll all be the richer for it.

Bobbi's got some good points, as do Steve and CatV Rick. I think Ed's point was not meant to "scare off" newbies or those with less knowledge of the weather than others. He'd just prefer (as we all would) that if you do say this or that will happen, simply have something to back it up (even if it is just your 'gut' feeling). That's OK.

OK, them's my 2 pennies. Now lets talk about the weather!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Bobbi
Unregistered




"Now Lets Talk About the Weather" [Re: LI Phil]
      #17909 - Fri Aug 06 2004 02:37 PM

you first, im listening

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bobbi
Unregistered




oh my gosh.. look [Re: Bobbi]
      #17910 - Fri Aug 06 2004 02:40 PM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html

would that be that storm that some model link showed moving west bound towards florida?


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James88
Weather Master


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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: My $.02 [Re: LI Phil]
      #17911 - Fri Aug 06 2004 02:41 PM

Well, the last advisory has been issued on Alex as he heads out towards Europe at nearly 50mph(!).

The system in the central Atlantic has not been upgraded to TD #3 as of yet. Maybe at 5:00. Or maybe not. What do you guys think?

Edited by James88 (Fri Aug 06 2004 02:54 PM)


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cyclone_head
Weather Hobbyist


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Loc: Florida
Re: Clarifications-well put Rick [Re: bobbi]
      #17912 - Fri Aug 06 2004 02:50 PM

Well said bobbi...and I didn't count one acronym...lol

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Clarifications-well put Rick [Re: cyclone_head]
      #17913 - Fri Aug 06 2004 03:00 PM

Model runs on #2 Looks gulf bound



http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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summercyclone
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: 91L [Re: Rabbit]
      #17914 - Fri Aug 06 2004 03:11 PM

Same old question I ask year after year...why couldn't NHC 'see' that upper low out on front of 91L that has been shearing the life out of it...like I said Thursday afternooon...gone,

sc


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