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Newly tagged Invest 91L in the Central American Gyre heading towards MX/TX, a slow and sprawling flood threat. Bahamas hybrid well E of FL 10%/30% odd and expected to track back to the W across FL or SE US this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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summercyclone
Weather Hobbyist


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Loc: Florida Big Bend
Re: Another area to watch? [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #17915 - Fri Aug 06 2004 03:14 PM

Yes, and look at the TX coast today...the Gulf is open for business!!

sc


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bobbi
Unregistered




model runs [Re: Unregistered User]
      #17916 - Fri Aug 06 2004 03:21 PM

As what? I see it... just as what?

And, does a storm build out in Atlantic and follow it?

my thoughts?

wont be much but rain..
area south of florida across to cuba over to the Bahamas down to PR is a shear zone of messy winds, chaotic word still being used. Cannot see a system form here..

That wave looks real good now moving west with the high but real soon it hits THE ZONE and shear and well.. don't see it.

There are some real problems out there that are inhibiting storm formation not to be laughed off for those of us who enjoy tracking.

Something will form somewhere. Where threre is desire there is motivation. The atmosphere NEEDS to move itself around, clear itself out and flow.. If it is stopped up in one spot it will go where it can go elsewhere. Case in point.. Alex. A climotolgically unfriendly place to form that strong a Cane but the atmosphere let. Maybe the Gulf.. maybe..

Thanks for the visual...what was intensity tho intensity forecasting is as we say crappy at best without a real system or point of reference to start from


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Hardcore
Unregistered




Re: model runs [Re: bobbi]
      #17917 - Fri Aug 06 2004 03:27 PM

Ive got bad news for you guys living on the central gulfcoast. I just put up my new davis weather station . So there will be no storm this year AL/MS and FL . Sorry that I had to do it


http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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summercyclone
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: oh my gosh.. look [Re: bobbi]
      #17918 - Fri Aug 06 2004 03:32 PM

Shear monster at work already.....it may get upgraded, but, par for the course this year, will have an uphill battle..another El Nino signal, as Bobbi observed yesterday.

sc

sc


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bobbi
Unregistered




locating lows [Re: summercyclone]
      #17919 - Fri Aug 06 2004 03:51 PM

Regarding your question on why "they" can't see lows are a problem.

Somehow lows that are about to become stronger don't always get picked up on the models. They are hard to see on sats until they get going. Again as I said the WV can give you a feel for where something might start twisting but that goes back to intuitive weather forecasting. A sense of what am I missing here? Something doesn't add up.

This is of course my opinon and an opinon based on Monday Morning quarterbacking by experts to explain why something that didn't form or didn't intensify didn't..

Meteorology is math.. if something doesn't add up right.. you are missing a part of the equation.

my thoughts, not from a textbook


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: locating lows [Re: bobbi]
      #17920 - Fri Aug 06 2004 04:25 PM

My point exactly ....as I sometimes say, they need to get up from the computer and 'look out the window', ie. what is really happening, what do we see empirically?

sc


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summercyclone
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Re: Dr Gs forecast [Re: Anonymous]
      #17921 - Fri Aug 06 2004 04:31 PM

I think he nailed it, the three suppressing factors are in fact 'empirical', they are happening now, and evident.

sc

I thought 1966 might be one of the analogs too.

Edited by summercyclone (Fri Aug 06 2004 08:50 PM)


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: locating lows [Re: Anonymous]
      #17922 - Fri Aug 06 2004 04:35 PM

>>... that upper low out on front of 91L that has been shearing the life out of it...like I said Thursday afternooon...gone

For now. The apex is moving SW so if you set your Goes 12 WV to 30 loops, you can see for yourself. Then you'll see it too . Maybe you do or maybe you don't know this but ULL's can aid in ventilation of a tropical system depending on their relationship. If the ULL is positioned in such a way to allow exhaust into the entrance region of a jetstream, it's not going to shear it, it's gonna enahnce it. XTD2 will be in such a position after Sunday. Following the diving ULL, a ridge will be building across the GOM. Check out the GFS upper air charts (200mb, 850, etc.) and follow along the vortmax. You'll see an "x" near the Yucatan by Tuesday. Also, there is a front lying in the middle of the Gulf. This was not lost on the Mobile area NWS which has already referenced the ETA closing off a low south of Alabama and retrograding it west to the LA Coast. And that had nothing to do with the wave itself. The wave will provide heat and the proberbial spark to set off a system if one is in the offing.

Weather is dynamic. Just because you think you see something one day doesn't mean it's going to be the same thing the next. Like the media, everyone wants to be right and guess right first. They get all the glory when they do. Their comments are usually forgotten when they don't. Tuesday is a long way off, but I'd invite you to look at the facts:

a) some water in the Gulf is already > 90 degrees

b) there is a front lying across the Northern Gulf.

c) a wave, currently being sheared by an ULL that is moving away SW out in front of it is set to join the party if it survives.
-----------------------------------------------
We shall see.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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bobbi
Unregistered




Re: locating lows/steve's post [Re: Steve]
      #17923 - Fri Aug 06 2004 04:45 PM

Two of the best tools when following the tropics and most overlooked are..

Reading various local NWS discussion in possibly tropically affected areas

Reading through at least twice the Tropical Discussion from NHC, analysis and at times Marine Discussion.

Good ways to find clues to things not previously mentioned by politically correct press releases.

thanks steve, interesting thoughts


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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


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Re: Another area to watch? [Re: summercyclone]
      #17924 - Fri Aug 06 2004 04:55 PM

i think what is along the tx coast is a frontal boundry. there may be a low trying to form along this line. It does look like a mess there. am i correct on this?????

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doug
Weather Analyst


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Re: XTD2 future [Re: Steve]
      #17925 - Fri Aug 06 2004 05:08 PM

Steve: you posted, more eloquently than I could, what I was investigating my self. Provided there is still some sort of low presure area in the wave south of Hispanola we could have what occured with Alex which we recall rotated out over a retrograding ULL into a favorable environment for development. That is why NHC continues to caution that conditions can improve on the system in the next day or two.
Also recall that the shortwave trof now down about 29N was to be particularly strong and pull this system up north, but we now know that the west end of that is not going to progress further down than it has so this system should progress wnw into the southern GOM in the next two days...I am not bullish on this develpoing but i am not writing it off either...present appearances can be decieving.
As for 92L shear is pushing the tops off all convection and the LLC is exposed...same problems other systems have had so far...this system is a fish spinner in any event too far north already, IMO.

--------------------
doug


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Hardcore
Unregistered




Re: Another area to watch? [Re: andy1tom]
      #17926 - Fri Aug 06 2004 05:24 PM

Quote:

i think what is along the tx coast is a frontal boundry. there may be a low trying to form along this line. It does look like a mess there. am i correct on this?????




Would it not take 4 or 5 days for that to form into something tropical ?


http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


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Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: XTD2 future [Re: doug]
      #17927 - Fri Aug 06 2004 05:28 PM

FWIW, Wright Weather's model map is out. Earlier today, the bullseye was on SC LA. Now it's looking more like a potential Texas threat. It will probably go back and forth with the new runs. But a western Gulf threat isn't really anything I'd taken into account. I figured all along (going back to maybe Monday) that there was an eastern Gulf threat if anything. Here's the link to the updated runs. Also of note is the plot of 92L. Several of the models prefer a loop or SW jump to near Puerto Rico. This would presumably be due to the Bermuda High retrograding west and forcing it SW.

91L, 92L Model Maps

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


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Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: 92L & shear [Re: Steve]
      #17929 - Fri Aug 06 2004 05:51 PM

SHEAR, that dreaded monster thats killing most of the tropical systems so far, with of course the notable exception being Alex, is affecting 92L now, sw to ne. Looking at the future shear maps, if it can remain south of 20 latitude or gets past 60 longitude, in 48 hours plus, it should be in a more favorable environment for development. Obviously if it goes more NW initially then it probably won't have a chance. Here's a link to the 48hr(Sun) shear forcast.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/shr_48.gif

TG

Edited by Tropics Guy (Fri Aug 06 2004 05:56 PM)


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bobbi
Unregistered




Re: 92L & shear [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #17930 - Fri Aug 06 2004 06:00 PM

Odd to see shear in that part of the ocean..if you ask me.

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Storm Cooper
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Re: Another area to watch? [Re: andy1tom]
      #17931 - Fri Aug 06 2004 06:09 PM

The front should stall out this weekend and yep... that would be a possible area in the GOM to watch.... a couple of models hint to it but who knows?

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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summercyclone
Weather Hobbyist


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Loc: Florida Big Bend
Re: Alex's sister? [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #17932 - Fri Aug 06 2004 06:16 PM

In the wings, a bit further east than the Big Guy developed....

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

92L is a goner for now...see that little jet streak connection to the other disturbance further south>? We've seen this before, means a no go.

Forget 91L.

As I said, watch the Golfo de Mexico.

sc

Edited by summercyclone (Fri Aug 06 2004 06:26 PM)


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summercyclone
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Loc: Florida Big Bend
Re: XTD2 future [Re: Steve]
      #17933 - Fri Aug 06 2004 06:23 PM

SW motion will not happen, not in August, in that locale. And if it did, the sytem would most likely tank.....only a very sheared and weak system could conceivably move that way, out there.

Just an opinion...

sc


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javlin
Weather Master


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Re: XTD2 future [Re: summercyclone]
      #17934 - Fri Aug 06 2004 06:49 PM

I am probably an idiot but that rope like feature with 91L act's like a web from Spider Man.It looks though like were ever 91L goes it goes.That is due in part that this is 91L.We would of expected it to be in that position about now.So let's say it is then,once it gets on the other side of the low things would improve would they not.
pressures over Jamaica look to be in the norm

Edited by javlin (Fri Aug 06 2004 06:58 PM)


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: XTD2 future [Re: javlin]
      #17935 - Fri Aug 06 2004 06:53 PM

That model map sure does look funny. I can't ever remember seeing something like that.



http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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