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Western Gulf and NW Caribbean increasingly favored for development potential over the next week or so.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 290 (Idalia) , Major: 290 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 290 (Idalia) Major: 290 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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caneman
Unregistered




Re: Alex's sister? [Re: summercyclone]
      #17938 - Fri Aug 06 2004 07:06 PM

You can't forget 91 as it may be the spark for the Gulf

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javlin
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Re: XTD2 future [Re: Unregistered User]
      #17940 - Fri Aug 06 2004 07:07 PM

They will change many more times before this over IF 91L is still in there somewhere.The best place to be usually is where they forecast the storm to hit about 48>72 hrs out.A big guarntee usually it's not coming to you.

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Anonymous
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Re: XTD2 future [Re: Unregistered User]
      #17942 - Fri Aug 06 2004 07:08 PM

Wright Weather is just mapping the plots.

As for the SW motion, I assume sc is talking about 92L? A building high from the north and east would and could cause a weak system to move that way. The SW I was referring to is the backing SW of the ULL in front of 91L that you have declared dead. Again, I reference the Goes 12 WV Loop to view it in process and the upper air charts from your model of choice for early next week. The ingredients are on the counter and the water's boiling on the stove. That's all I can say at this point.

Steve


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Anonymous
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Re: XTD2 future [Re: Anonymous]
      #17944 - Fri Aug 06 2004 07:24 PM

There appears to be a weak LLC south of Jamaica (well South). I can see it very well on a close up visible sat. It is very weak and there is no convection, but it is still there.

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Anonymous
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Re: XTD2 future [Re: Anonymous]
      #17946 - Fri Aug 06 2004 07:57 PM

That LLC is really south of Jamaica about 14 to 15 N would run in to Central America or Mexico

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teal61
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Re: South of Jamaica [Re: Anonymous]
      #17947 - Fri Aug 06 2004 08:00 PM

Yep it's there, I went to the NASA GHCC site and zoomed in the area south of Jamaica and there is some sort of eddy or maybe even a week LLC located about 16n/78w moving off to the west.

Links to the Nasa site never seem to work, but go there and do a 12 image loop at medium zoom centered south of Jamaica and you should be able to pick it out.


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LI Phil
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Dead Friday... [Re: Anonymous]
      #17948 - Fri Aug 06 2004 08:04 PM

Well, it's a pretty quiet Friday, both at sea and on the boards. I said today would be a wait and see day, and boy, it sure is. Only three things of interest out there:

Alex: Gave us all a lesson in persistence. The little engine that could just keeps chugging along. Even though he's completely extratropical now, he's still packing TS strength winds. Rich & James, should Alex's remnants reach you, let us know how the mother country fared. He should be there by Sunday.

XTD2/91L-still up on NRL, so it's still possibly a playa. Right now just dumping rain and t-storming for Hispaniola, Coobah and Jamaica mon. Nothing happening now, conditions could marginally improve in a day or so. I'm not declaring it dead, but it could sure use a heater and some smelling salts.

92L-I am now of the view that this will definitely become a TD, and possibly Bonnie, within 48 hours. It's pretty small and is a pretty well developed area of low pressure. If it does develop, which I think it will, it will merely churn the mackarels..or whatever fishes are out there.

Pretty much that's all there is. Another wait and see day on tap tomorrow I'm afraid. I eagerly await HanKFranK's daily commentary...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Steve Hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: South of Jamaica [Re: teal61]
      #17949 - Fri Aug 06 2004 08:11 PM

A circulation is south of the western tip of Hait moving slowly wnw. Been there for a couple of hours. We'll see.

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bobbi
Unregistered




Re: Dead Friday... [Re: LI Phil]
      #17950 - Fri Aug 06 2004 08:32 PM

1) I can see the swirl south of jamaica, its well sw of all the convection..

2) Invest is still up. I was thinking Phil paid off someone at NRL.

3) When we try tracking storms all the way to Europe..its not a good sing.

4) canetracker..btw ...that was a good post, i got it.


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teal61
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Re: South of Jamaica [Re: Steve Hirschb.]
      #17951 - Fri Aug 06 2004 08:43 PM

Yup Steve, there might just be one there south of the western tip of Hati. Maybe it will be the real thing, its nearer the thunderstorm activity anyway. There is another very small eddy west of Jamaica and south of Cuba I noticed also. I will be watching the area you pointed out this afternoon.

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summercyclone
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Re: Alex's sister? [Re: summercyclone]
      #17952 - Fri Aug 06 2004 08:49 PM

There clearly is a circulation and organized thunderstorm area off the East Coast, but it is rapidly getting swept NNE....no joy there.

Basin looks more like late October than August!

sc


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summercyclone
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Re: locating lows [Re: Steve]
      #17953 - Fri Aug 06 2004 08:51 PM

The problem is there has to be something there to develop,,,,there won't be, at least not 91L, I mean, so, coulda woulda shoulda won't happen, IMHO.

sc


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Ed in Va
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Re: locating lows [Re: summercyclone]
      #17954 - Fri Aug 06 2004 08:54 PM

Indeed a slow day, but you might want to look at the discussion under the NWS for Wakefield, Va, which talks about a possible sub-tropical low late next week.
http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/va/discussion.html

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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summercyclone
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Re: Dead Friday... [Re: LI Phil]
      #17955 - Fri Aug 06 2004 08:54 PM

Dead 92L...have you looked at it this pm?....I'll say dead through the weekend, if it makes it past Sunday, there is a possibility..otherwise ...NHC made a good call NOT upgrading it, just to have to downgrade it again like 91L.

sc


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summercyclone
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Re: South of Jamaica [Re: Steve Hirschb.]
      #17956 - Fri Aug 06 2004 08:56 PM

Good eyes, saw that when everyone was looking s of Jamaica...it may be a vorticity center induced by topography...

sc


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summercyclone
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Re: Subtropical Low? [Re: Ed in Va]
      #17957 - Fri Aug 06 2004 08:59 PM

I see no mention of subtropical low anywhere in that discussion...can you point it out? Coastal low = not subtropical, unless otherwise stated.

sc


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LI Phil
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Re: Dead Friday... [Re: summercyclone]
      #17958 - Fri Aug 06 2004 09:00 PM

Yeah, after I made that post, I looked at on all the loops, including two different wv, and I am ready to call this one done. Dry air is killing whatever chances it had and shear is taking care of the rest. It only would have spun the fishes anyway, but it might have provided a "bump" in our season totals, das all.

Oh Bonnie-o, wherefore art thou oh Bonnie-o ?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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LI Phil
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Re: Subtropical Low? [Re: summercyclone]
      #17959 - Fri Aug 06 2004 09:01 PM

It's in the SECOND discussion. I wondered about that too, until I read #2

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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summercyclone
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Re: Subtropical Low? [Re: LI Phil]
      #17960 - Fri Aug 06 2004 09:04 PM

Ah so, I see it now, thanks. Hmmm, Gulf to the NE coast....more October stuff!!

That scroll thing, gets me all the time!

sc


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Subtropical Low? [Re: summercyclone]
      #17961 - Fri Aug 06 2004 09:09 PM

Hey Bros C--

I thought the counter was not counting right...I think I have 5 posts that are "#62"!!

sc

(Editor's note: your next post will show that you have 63 posts, and the one after that, 64. The "posts" does not keep track of your individual posts, but rather the number of total posts made. If you were to go back to your first post made, it will still show you have 62 posts.)

Edited by LI Phil (Fri Aug 06 2004 11:12 PM)


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