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Western Gulf and NW Caribbean increasingly favored for development potential over the next week or so.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 290 (Idalia) , Major: 290 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 290 (Idalia) Major: 290 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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LI Phil
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Re: New Thread?? [Re: joepub1]
      #18236 - Mon Aug 09 2004 04:25 PM

I've already put out the word to John, Mike, Ed & HF about a new thread. I could do it, but I could also screw it up.

Here's a headsup for possible TD3:

THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IN THE VICINITY OF TOBAGO IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. ALTHOUGH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO NOT INDICATE A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME...THIS SYSTEM IS WELL
ORGANIZED AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. EVEN IF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DOES NOT OCCUR...SQUALLS WITH SOME WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE
LIKELY OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TODAY... ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE WAVE ON TUESDAY. ALL INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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doug
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Re: LLC ~ 22.9 and 87.9 exTD2 [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #18237 - Mon Aug 09 2004 04:38 PM

Looks like XTD2 continues to have problems holding onto its convection, and that is necessary for the pressures to fall and get going...As I see it, the actual estimated LLC has moved more north, and in the latest visible a new very circular convective cloud mass is appearing, and this is born out by the banding that is visible...this means that it is still transitioning and is pretty weak.
93L looks a lot like 91L at this same time. Not sure it is closed off...it is possible neither will actually be upgraded when the fliers get in.

--------------------
doug


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Cycloneye
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Re: New Thread?? [Re: LI Phil]
      #18238 - Mon Aug 09 2004 04:43 PM

Yes Phil I was going to post that about changing to a new thread as these 2 systems are on the brink to develop.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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joepub1
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Re: LLC ~ 22.9 and 87.9 exTD2 [Re: doug]
      #18239 - Mon Aug 09 2004 04:57 PM

<this means that it is still transitioning and is pretty weak.>

I think were looking for this to renamed TD2, not Hurricane Bonnie this afternoon. Most TD's are pretty weak, and are in a transforming stage of their development. The circ is becoming enclosed with convection and moving NW away from land into very warm waters. It's doing OK by my standards......

93L, if it continues to get it's act together, will move north to some degree as well; again away from land and into warm waters. The models are cranking this boy up as well, but it's got to fight it's way through the graveyard first. While overall a stronger system at the moment next to 91L-XTD2, does it have what it takes to survive the nasty trip it's about to make??


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javlin
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Re: LLC ~ 22.9 and 87.9 exTD2 [Re: doug]
      #18240 - Mon Aug 09 2004 04:59 PM

That is about the spot I see it also.The shear is subsiding and the new wrap of clouds to the N and NE is becoming evident.I wonder how that low over LA is playing a factor as a steering mechanism.How much longer before a plane gets in there?93L looks prone to pounce little shear right now in the boneyard do not really see any till you look at the W Carib.

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BugsBunny
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Re: LLC ~ 22.9 and 87.9 exTD2 [Re: javlin]
      #18241 - Mon Aug 09 2004 05:06 PM

I'll expect that if they send planes out, and if either of these systems are classified, it will likely be after 5pm

--------------------
forecast: 17/14/9/5
to date: 3/3/2/1


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bobbi
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Re: about Louisiana---thanks Steve for visuals [Re: Steve]
      #18242 - Mon Aug 09 2004 05:26 PM

and may I say I am sure that TD2 has a very nice personality.

what were the reports from the islands as the really big exciting wave started passing through


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bobbi
Unregistered




Clarification on recon please re: td2 bits and pieces [Re: BugsBunny]
      #18243 - Mon Aug 09 2004 05:31 PM

Didn't they originally say they would have a plane in exTD2remants this afternoon?

Have I missed something?

Are they or aren't they sending in the plane?

Also..can someone please repost that site with wxr obs for Carib/Lesser Antilles. Thanks


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Frank P
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Re: about Louisiana---thanks Steve for visuals [Re: bobbi]
      #18244 - Mon Aug 09 2004 05:31 PM

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/caribm.

weather reports for the caribbean


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andy1tom
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Re: about Louisiana---thanks Steve for visuals [Re: bobbi]
      #18245 - Mon Aug 09 2004 05:33 PM

If the GFDL model is correct we got problems here....
bad news


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rickonboat
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two timing [Re: bobbi]
      #18246 - Mon Aug 09 2004 05:35 PM

Well, not just one, but a double wammy. I think the system in the Gulf may prevent that wave out there, when it DOES enter the Gulf in 5 days or so...from becoming the mother of all storms...if it wipes enough of the enegy and temperature out of the bath tub...

I have watched systems for over 12 years now, and the wave entering the caribbean is already a depression, and possibly a tropical storm within 12-24 hours. It would NOT suprise me if this blossomed quickly into a major hurricane. Just has that look to it. Suprised it is not already classified.
Since these have cycles, we will see if the whole thing plays out to be someone's worst nightmare, or just another fun thing to watch.

It sure looks impressive, is south enough to enter the gulf, and big enough to ward off the graveyard ahead of it.


hmmmm

The system in the bay of Campeche will possibly make a miserable weekend of being on my trawler, and the one behind it...will finish me off....HA!


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Storm Cooper
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Re: about Louisiana---thanks Steve for visuals [Re: andy1tom]
      #18247 - Mon Aug 09 2004 05:38 PM

As most of the models go we may have bad news

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


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Re: Clarification on recon please re: td2 bits and pieces [Re: bobbi]
      #18248 - Mon Aug 09 2004 05:38 PM

carb weather

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bobbi
Unregistered




thank u and look at this.. [Re: Frank P]
      #18249 - Mon Aug 09 2004 05:40 PM

(Post deleted by moderator)

Edited by LI Phil (Mon Aug 09 2004 05:48 PM)


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bobbi
Unregistered




models and bad news for Rhode Island [Re: andy1tom]
      #18250 - Mon Aug 09 2004 05:44 PM

(Post deleted by moderator)

Edited by LI Phil (Mon Aug 09 2004 05:49 PM)


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BugsBunny
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Re: two timing [Re: rickonboat]
      #18251 - Mon Aug 09 2004 05:49 PM

For me, 93L conjures up thoughts of Iris in 2001 and of Isidore in 2002, as both were very well-defined waves when entering the Eastern Caribbean, and both developed (although because it moved south of Trinidad, Isidore dissipated at first as TD10)

It is of note, though, that neither system was in August--Iris was in October and Isidore was in September, although we musn't forget Allen in 1980. Although I doubt this system will ever be a Cat V, Allen rapidly intensified while moving west at 25 mph, AND in the eastern Carib. Allen, like this system, (although Allen was already classified) had a very well-defined upper level anticyclone.

--------------------
forecast: 17/14/9/5
to date: 3/3/2/1


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Storm Cooper
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Re: two timing [Re: BugsBunny]
      #18252 - Mon Aug 09 2004 05:52 PM

319
WTNT33 KNHC 091746
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
145 PM AST MON AUG 09 2004

..THIRD TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS NEAR THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...

INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AT 145 PM AST...1745Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST OR
ABOUT 50 MILES... 80 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRENADA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH
..35 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY.

WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER ELEVATED
TERRAIN.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 145 PM AST POSITION...11.7 N... 61.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE National Hurricane Center AT
500 PM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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James88
Weather Master


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TD #3 [Re: BugsBunny]
      #18253 - Mon Aug 09 2004 05:53 PM

The wave in the Caribbean has become the third tropical depression of the year.

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teal61
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Loc: Spring, TX (30.1N 95.5W)
Re: TD #3 [Re: James88]
      #18254 - Mon Aug 09 2004 05:54 PM

Hmmm, wonder what info made them upgrade it in the early afternoon ?

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rickonboat
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Re: TD #3 [Re: teal61]
      #18255 - Mon Aug 09 2004 05:57 PM

Will be a tropical storm within 12-18 hours..maybe before the day is out...

Hurrcane within 2-3 days....


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