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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Kevin
Weather Master


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Models [Re: Old Sailor]
      #18403 - Tue Aug 10 2004 12:58 AM

Some of the models have just shifted to east this evening. Remember, though, that this is just one piece of an incomplete puzzle.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_03.gif


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ticka1
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Models [Re: Old Sailor]
      #18404 - Tue Aug 10 2004 12:59 AM

I have a question - when will the next model runs occur? Very interested in how they track Bonnie?

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DroopGB31
Weather Guru


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Re: decode recon data? [Re: Old Sailor]
      #18405 - Tue Aug 10 2004 01:00 AM

Nothing unusual about an open eyewall in an organizing tropical storm, its basically fluctuating in intensity, right now looks to be on the down swing, look for a large blow-up later, which may increase the overallsize of the storm, as its very small right now. Not gonna comment on track right now though. I bet Joe B. is loving life right now! LOL Does he have any comments we should be aware of?

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Models [Re: ticka1]
      #18406 - Tue Aug 10 2004 01:07 AM

The ones I posted above are usually every 6 hours starting at 02Z. So probably another hour, hour and a half.

BTW- AF968 last report was from the Antilles it appears, probably St Croix. They have probably flown down to fly TD3 tomorrow.
URNT10 KNHC 100015
97779 00154 30199 68500 56100 08012 56/// /4591
RMK AF968 WXWXA TRAIN OB 11. LAST REPORT


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: Sticking my neck out.... [Re: BabyCat]
      #18407 - Tue Aug 10 2004 01:08 AM

why was my post edited.. there was no reason to edit that post.. i watched the update and Lyons SAID IT WAS PINT SIZED..how was that not an appropriate post? Are you trying to make some point or read somthing that I dont read.

I thought it was cute of lyons..rarely does he make comments like that and was a good comment as it is a small storm so far.

I also found Lyons VERY excited about following with his finger the center of circulation (his words) on TD3 and have rarely ever seen Lyons as excited and annimated as he was tonight on the update at 7:50

I dont mind being edited if i say something inappropriate or impulsively silly but I was reporting back his exact words and they were an appropriate description by a professional, as important I think as him saying it could be a hurricane soon. He ALSo said it could fall apart just as soon.

Why can we talk about Joe Bastardi and not Steve Lyons?

Not being difficult just looking for clarifcation here to understand what is and isnt allowed.

(This post is an example of something that should be asked using the PM capability - I just sent you an answer.)
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Aug 10 2004 02:47 AM)


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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


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Re: Models [Re: Kevin]
      #18408 - Tue Aug 10 2004 01:11 AM

Kevin:
I seen those models, also looked at some Navy Models too , some even have it going to the East Coast of Florida, I think going to see lot of model change till the have Recon in there to locate the center on TD3.

Dave


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: decode recon data? [Re: DroopGB31]
      #18409 - Tue Aug 10 2004 01:11 AM

The boss is the boss!!!!!! knuth said!

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Hardcore
Unregistered




Re: It's CHARLEY... [Re: LI Phil]
      #18410 - Tue Aug 10 2004 01:35 AM

Quote:

Check the storm forum for my ideas on Bonnie...CAT V headed for Mobile...

Seriously, though, I don't think Bonnie will have too much of an affect on Sir Charles...which might not be a good thing. I see Charley as more of a w GOM storm, while Bonnie looks to be taking aim at the Large Bend





Cat 5 headed to Mobile was not funny !!!!



http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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Colleen A.
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LoisCane [Re: LoisCane]
      #18413 - Tue Aug 10 2004 01:42 AM

I don't know why your post was edited. Sorry.
That being said, Andrew was a small, compact storm but did major damage (as if we didn't already know that!) A storm doesn't have to be huge to be devastating.

Why don't we list topics we are/are not allowed to talk about. We can talk about whether it's "Charley" or "Charlie" or if it's going to affect somebody's wedding, but we can't talk about what Steve Lyons said?

I'll stay on topic but for goodness sake could we just be a little more tolerant?

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SirCane
Storm Tracker


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Re: It's CHARLEY... [Re: Hardcore]
      #18414 - Tue Aug 10 2004 01:55 AM

Quote:


Cat 5 headed to Mobile was not funny !!!!






Oh boy, that's no joke.

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Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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SirCane
Storm Tracker


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Re: LoisCane [Re: Colleen A.]
      #18415 - Tue Aug 10 2004 01:56 AM



--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: Models [Re: Kevin]
      #18416 - Tue Aug 10 2004 01:58 AM

It's interesting to note the GFDL solution, a complete form of which can be found here:

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfdl...;hour=Animation

That is potentially a disaster scenario for the Florida Big Bend region, particularly if the solution it has for Bonnie from its 18Z run holds true (bringing the eastern quadrant of the storm this way). Of course, it's five days out, and things can and do change from run to run, but T.D. 3 is one to watch.

I say it is a potential disaster scenario because it doesn't seem to be recuribng the storm, just sending it up north. If that trend continued for another 12-24 hr beyond the forecast time and the storm remained a borderline cat 3 hurricane, the storm surge in Apalachee Bay - on the east side of the circulation, no less - would be immense. Taylor & Wakulla Counties in Florida would be flooded. I've heard before from the local officials that a cat 4 hurricane moving in this fashion would put much of Wakulla County almost all the way to Leon County - 10-15 miles - under water due to the flatness of the land and the surge possible from Apalachee Bay.

I don't mean to sound any alarm, but just note that it is one to watch. For the people along that coastline, let's hope that's not what happens. Beyond a direct strike on a major metropolitan area, a strike just west of New Orleans, and a strike along Long Island, that area and track is one of the most susceptible to major damage from a storm.

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(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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BillD
User


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Re: It's CHARLEY... [Re: Hardcore]
      #18417 - Tue Aug 10 2004 02:00 AM

If you knew the message board history, and the context, it is funny, but out of context, and not knowing the history of RickInMobile AKA rickonboat, it is not funny. This has been explained many times, but Phil, maybe its time to drop that line, too many people are taking you seriously

Bill


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SirCane
Storm Tracker


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Re: Models [Re: Clark]
      #18418 - Tue Aug 10 2004 02:02 AM

I noticed that the Ships model puts Bonnie at 87mph in 72 hours!

--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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Rasvar
Weather Master


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Re:blowin up! [Re: SirCane]
      #18419 - Tue Aug 10 2004 02:07 AM

It is scary to see a system like this start to blow up in the evening hours. This system has that Opal dynamic to me.

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BabyCat
Weather Guru


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Re: Sticking my neck out.... [Re: SirCane]
      #18420 - Tue Aug 10 2004 02:11 AM

It was Opal that first got my full attention, undivided attention. After Andrew plowed through so. Fla. and was heading towards La., I didn't get the feeling of terror like I did with Opal.
Go figure...
I didn't sleep the night Opal bloomed. Stayed up all night and watched it. Felt like a sitting duck.


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52255225
Weather Guru


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Re:blowin up! [Re: Rasvar]
      #18421 - Tue Aug 10 2004 02:12 AM

I wonder if Bonnie could get close to Tampa?

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Alex K
Unregistered




unpredictble [Re: SirCane]
      #18422 - Tue Aug 10 2004 02:21 AM

This little bonnie is weird. It has a CDO but a tiny one, no more than 75-100 miles across. That makes it unpreidctable
It could becomre a hurricane in 12 hours or dissipate in 12 hours! I was surprised at how fast the convection came back up.

Of course the gulf is boiling right now, so id give it good odds


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jth
Storm Tracker


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Re:blowin up! [Re: 52255225]
      #18423 - Tue Aug 10 2004 02:25 AM

TD 3 really has started to fire in the past couple of hours. The center is very easy to pick out even on infared. This one really scares me. As I said earlier today. This could be a historic storm in the making. If the models pan out, there could be multiple landfalls as a hurricane with very little weakening along the way to the Gulf.

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SirCane
Storm Tracker


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Re: unpredictble [Re: Alex K]
      #18424 - Tue Aug 10 2004 02:28 AM

Yep, Opal scared the heck out of me. As for Bonnie, let's hope she doesn't get any stronger than a CAT 1.

--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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