F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Newly tagged Invest 91L in the Central American Gyre heading towards MX/TX, a slow and sprawling flood threat. Bahamas hybrid well E of FL 10%/30% odd and expected to track back to the W across FL or SE US this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | >> (show all)
James88
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Fast Historical Hurricanes [Re: Unregistered User]
      #18537 - Tue Aug 10 2004 11:45 AM

Hurricane Allen, 1980 - Allen's forward motion was unusually fast for most of its life. The hurricane moved along at near 20kts (around 23mph) until about 2 days prior to landfall in Texas. While moving at this speed it was able to reach CAT 5 status twice. Not quite 25mph but pretty close.

Hurricane Allen

There was Hurricane Carmen in 1974. While I was unable to find its actual forward speed, the track map shows that it was moving quite fast while in the east and central Caribbean.

Hurricane Carmen

A famous example (one that I owe Phil for bringing to my attention a few weeks ago), was the 'Long Island Express' in 1938. While it did not form at a high speed, it was able to maintain CAT 3 status while travelling at speeds of over 60mph.

LI Express

Not sure if these were what you were looking for Bobbi, but they did move pretty fast.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
recmod
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Fast Moving Hurricanes [Re: Unregistered User]
      #18538 - Tue Aug 10 2004 11:46 AM

Hurricane Allen, a Cat V monster in 1980, trucked along at >20mph for most of its lifetime...yet that never seemed to inhibit the storm from reaching 170mph three different times along its track.

--Lou


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JustMe
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
Re: i hear you Steve... [Re: Unregistered User]
      #18539 - Tue Aug 10 2004 11:51 AM

Hi All

finally good things to track
figures planning a mini vacation to the Florida Keys this weekend. What are the thoughts should we go or not.. going to do some snorkeling ... wondering what Charlie and Bonnie will do to the water .... wondering if we should wait now.

Your thoughts would be appreciated... Will Charley churn the water enough where it won't be clear to snorkle?

--------------------

I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Allen..maybe I was thinking Allen and not Gilbert, thanks [Re: JustMe]
      #18540 - Tue Aug 10 2004 11:58 AM

Thank you. I think when I keep seeing Gilbert's size I am seeing Allen's speed, thanks. I was busy and living in California during those 80s storms and not tracking as carefully.

As for Rabbit and my earlier post:
For Rabbit again...

Bonnie died out around Central Florida Hurricane Center 2004 - 60-62 W when she picked speed to 25mph..

Charley is currently at Central Florida Hurricane Center 2004 - 66.3 going 24 mph and his center seems to be swirling well and well defined. He does have big color out ahead of him but don't think thats anything other than a strong band that will wrap back in..

similar track and speed but very different storms

**************
may I add... I wish we had cords and advisories for that gap in Bonnie's track to see how the two really compare but there is that drop off in statistics til she was reformed

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 1299
Bonnie's IR looking better this am [Re: JustMe]
      #18541 - Tue Aug 10 2004 12:03 PM

Shows some pretty intense convection just off to the NE of the center.... white hot.... but still oh so small.... continues on that slow NW track per the IR loop... with the approaching cold front, and it looks to be quite significant for August (what the heck are we getting cold fronts in Aug anyway....) if it slows down to much, I think the track could actually shift more to the right... its all about timing with these approaching fronts.... if it increases speed, track goes more left.. right now models are consistent on Fl panhandle... PC or just to the right of PC looks about as good as any place right now... as I said, with this one its all about its forward speed and timing with the front...

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Alex K
Unregistered




data message [Re: danielw]
      #18542 - Tue Aug 10 2004 12:19 PM

Shows pressure down to 1003 in Bonnie, dunno how old that is.

Seems to be fortifying


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Bonnie's IR looking better this am [Re: Frank P]
      #18543 - Tue Aug 10 2004 12:20 PM

If the storm got stronger than forcasted would the track shift back to the left or the right ?



http://www.hardcoreweather.com


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
jth
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 275
Re: Bonnie's IR looking better this am [Re: Anonymous]
      #18544 - Tue Aug 10 2004 12:24 PM

Intensity shouldn't mater m uch for bonnie. Theonly issue for her is how far west she gets before the trough gets her. The longer she stays on the WNW to NW track, the further left the track. She will eventually go NE no matter what.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 1299
Re: Bonnie's IR looking better this am [Re: Anonymous]
      #18545 - Tue Aug 10 2004 12:26 PM

right now I would think the overall strength of the storm will not be as important as its forward speed, and that of the appoaching front's speed...... in determining its track.... and whether it goes more to the left or right.... slows down to much and you're looking at a cental fl event... not saying that's going to happen, and the models have been rather consistent in cluster towards the PC general area... but ya never know do ya....

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
two things.. [Re: Frank P]
      #18546 - Tue Aug 10 2004 12:37 PM

bonnie is looking stronger...how does that affect track if models didnt have her reaching hurricane status til thursday?

charley is going more west than wnw... have looked for a long long time.. on multiple sats... i see west with drop north of west but because of his fast foward speed differences in direction can make a huge difference down the line

both looking good

love watching jon on TWC on the morning shift, he is good good and gooder... see how lyons does when he comes on

will see what he thinks of Gidget soon

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
jth
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 275
Recon [Re: LoisCane]
      #18547 - Tue Aug 10 2004 12:55 PM

The link to recon data above is not working. Does anyone have another link?
Also, when will recon be in Charley?????
I am still going with a track a little more west with Bonnie. She just keeps chugging along westward.

Something has not been mentioned is a comparison of Charley to Gilbert. The track is forecast to be very similar in the Caribbean. If he strengthens (significantly), could je stay on a westward track ala Gilbert??? Food for thought.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: Bonnie flaring up [Re: James88]
      #18548 - Tue Aug 10 2004 01:00 PM

Bonnie seems to have expanded a little this morning and seems to be trying to organize some more. Today will be very interesting!

--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Bastardi [Re: SirCane]
      #18549 - Tue Aug 10 2004 01:10 PM

What is Joe's take on the current two storms?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
andy1tom
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: Bonnie flaring up [Re: SirCane]
      #18550 - Tue Aug 10 2004 01:13 PM

how long before watches and warnings are issued?? earlier on TWC a scroll said t/s conditions may be here by wed nite..guess its time to think about taking the boat outta the water

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Bonnie's IR looking better this am [Re: Frank P]
      #18551 - Tue Aug 10 2004 01:18 PM

The influence of the trof is approaching hard off Texas now, so the westward component of Bonnie should begin to diminish and cease soon. I am oersonally shocked at actually how far that trough has penetrated to the Gulf coast already.
At first i thought it would slip under and more west, but then I saw that wall rapidly approaching off Texas. It has to go east.
My guess now is that Bonnie will be right of the projected path as the influence of the trough is already appearing over the coastal areas of the central gulf coast with sharp SW upper flow. Don't be surpirsed if the actual land fall is more toward the Florida Big Bend, even down to Cedar Key.

--------------------
doug


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
strange question on Bonnie [Re: andy1tom]
      #18552 - Tue Aug 10 2004 01:19 PM

Can someone please tell me based on any loops or images of any kind why someone who I repsect a lot thinks its a possibility that Bonnie will or could bomb today .. well not bomb but intensify and then just as fast fall apart? Looking at wv for US and trends and I think there is something with Bonnie we are missing here... for one..her rapid intensification was not seen on models and some didnt even pick her up yesterday... and will she grab that express to the east or??

seriously, can anyone see a scenario where she will once again fall apart or fall below expected expectations and WHY

thanks

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: strange question on Bonnie [Re: LoisCane]
      #18554 - Tue Aug 10 2004 01:28 PM

Lois:

Very small storm; not a lot of convection to work with; rapidly approaching trough and upper wind shear that could reduce convection, or cause the LLC to shift east away from the convection ahead of the trough. We have seen this in several gulf systems in the past, most notably for me was the system that actually made land fall in Sarasota County in Sept 2002(Josephine?) which had characteristics like I described...That system was border lin cat I and rapidly ducked ene ahead of a front..had very little weather on the west side but very strong winds on that side due to the transfer of upper level winds down into the system as it interacted with the trough. this could happen to this one too.

--------------------
doug


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Bonnie's IR looking better this am [Re: doug]
      #18555 - Tue Aug 10 2004 01:34 PM

I am no expert but I think the elongation of the storms connected with bonnie on satellite is the beginning of that turn to the right. I am convinced that if she turns back towards the east that elongation will become wrapped tighter and she will be formidable for the Gulf for a while. This is not to say that she will go inland as a strong or major storm. The day is young, but I think by tonight she will either fold or increase so that she will be the news maker for the next few days. Charley on the other hand will be making hearts pick up the pace soon afterward in the wake of Bonnie's mess. I might add, should either one of them threaten Central Florida as a slow moving tropical depression, we will have disaster conditions on our hands due to all the above average rains we have had this month and in July.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Bonnie's IR looking better this am [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #18556 - Tue Aug 10 2004 01:39 PM

yeah i see the elongation too towards the NE but not sure which thing i belive, being twisted about not good for small circulation or turn to the ne..

also something about the wv images across SE US bugging me today

watching Charley, that storm is driving me crazy

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Bonnie's IR looking better this am [Re: LoisCane]
      #18557 - Tue Aug 10 2004 01:52 PM

The Floater loops seem to have a good update rate and I am seeing the center of bonnie being exposed and the bull of her convection being blown towards the south. Sort of reminds me of a Semi truck being turned around in a big parking lot. I always wonder if the wheels are going to follow in the direction of the cab. In Bonnie's Case I wonder if the convection will follow the center or if it will be like the merrygo round effect and she will have to start over.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 271 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 41142

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center