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Tropical Storm Warning extended north along coastal TX to San Luis Pass. Sprawling Storm 01L will likely be named Alberto within 24 hours.
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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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wxman007
Meteorologist


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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: Charley [Re: Colleen A.]
      #18793 - Wed Aug 11 2004 02:24 AM

Tomorrow's 18 and 00Z runs should be solid.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Colleen A.
Moderator


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Re:charley [Re: danielw]
      #18794 - Wed Aug 11 2004 02:24 AM

I have no idea what all that means. Can you do it in "Hurricanes for Dummies" language?

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


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Thanks, Jason [Re: wxman007]
      #18795 - Wed Aug 11 2004 02:26 AM

Thanks, I appreciate it. Boy, you ARE fast!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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danielwAdministrator
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Posts: 3525
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Re: TS WATCH is UP [Re: Colleen A.]
      #18796 - Wed Aug 11 2004 02:31 AM

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022004
0300Z WED AUG 11 2004

AT 10 PM CDT...0300 GMT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHWEST FLORIDA FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE
MOUTH OF THE SUWANEE RIVER.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 90.4W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT


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DroopGB31
Weather Guru


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Re: Thanks, Jason [Re: Colleen A.]
      #18797 - Wed Aug 11 2004 02:32 AM

Jason, I agree with you. Those runs tomorrow should give us a better idea. I think its because the NOAA Gulfstream planes should be out examining the enviroment around Charley. Am I right Jason?

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Charley [Re: Colleen A.]
      #18798 - Wed Aug 11 2004 02:35 AM

Well looking over 00Z model runs looks as though not much has changed. The 5 pm NHC track is on the western edge of model guidence. I would like to see run to run considency, but this maybe a start, they are clustered fairly tight now. Expect a possible slight adjustment to east on latter period of forecast.

Not giving up on Bonnie and would expect some come back tomorrow as conditions improve but may worsen closer to landfall as winds race from west and wnw.


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wxman007
Meteorologist


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Re: Thanks, Jason [Re: DroopGB31]
      #18800 - Wed Aug 11 2004 02:36 AM

You got it....

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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SirCane
Storm Tracker


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Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: bonnie [Re: wxman007]
      #18801 - Wed Aug 11 2004 02:37 AM

Bonnie has been a very odd storm-that's for sure. Just get the feeling she's going to fire up any time now.

--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Charley [Re: Colleen A.]
      #18802 - Wed Aug 11 2004 02:39 AM

Well looking over 00Z model runs looks as though not much has changed. The 5 pm NHC track is on the western edge of model guidence. I would like to see run to run considency, but this maybe a start, they are clustered fairly tight now. Expect a possible slight adjustment to east on latter period of forecast.

Not giving up on Bonnie and would expect some come back tomorrow as conditions improve but may worsen closer to landfall as winds race from west and wnw.

Joe


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BillD
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Re: Charley [Re: Anonymous]
      #18803 - Wed Aug 11 2004 02:45 AM

Hurricane watch up for Jamaica and Cayman Islands. Should be Hurricane Charley by morning.

Bill


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jth
Storm Tracker


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Re: Charley [Re: BillD]
      #18804 - Wed Aug 11 2004 02:49 AM

Look for the tracks of both to shift west tomorrow. The data from th bouys in the gulf indicate that Bonnie may be drifting a little west of north still.

I think the models shifted east for Charley based on a reformation of the center further north. Maybe they mistook this for a more northerly motion. he has been on a very consistent WNW motion and I beleive he will continue all the way to the South Central Gulf before turning NW. Could be a LA storm. more likely from NO to Destin again.


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Alex K
Unregistered




Bonnie hmm [Re: Anonymous]
      #18805 - Wed Aug 11 2004 02:51 AM

I have a weird feeling about this storm. It isnt going to just stay like this, drifting northward as a weak tropical storm. I bet it either dies or deepens tommorrow. I dont think it wll be a weak tropical storm though.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re:Charley [Re: DroopGB31]
      #18806 - Wed Aug 11 2004 02:54 AM

The new Charley posts are up.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/


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Colleen A.
Moderator


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Re: Charley [Re: jth]
      #18807 - Wed Aug 11 2004 03:10 AM

Tampa Bay's ABC Station just showed the track of Charley on our doorstep on Saturday morning as a possible Cat 2. Dennis Phillips is the met and he is good. He also pointed out that the model runs (all 5) have Charley hitting somewhere along the west coast of Florida. I do not know if those model runs are from the 5pm advisory or the 11pm advisory but it does look a lot closer to Tampa than it did at 5pm. THAT BEING SAID:

He also mentioned that there are different scenarios (i.e., goes over the middle of Cuba, etc) that would change the track. Then he said if this track is still the same tomorrow, we may see Hurricane Watches/Warnings up for the Central Gulf Coast of Florida.

Oh...Dennis Phillips is not one to overreact and he is probably one of the most dependable mets in our area.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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stormpath
Unregistered




Re: Charlie [Re: Colleen A.]
      #18808 - Wed Aug 11 2004 03:25 AM

Hi Colleen,
I'm in Orlando and noticed the new track as of 11pm puts Charlie almost directly over the bay area. I think a lot of people will wake up in the morning and be surprised. Always appreciate your posts.
Looks like we're in for an interesting next few days. I watched the three wx forcasts here in Orlando and only one station had the updated track. One even had Charlie out in the gulf the other N. of Cedar Key. Although too early to tell, it's nice to note who is on top of the latest information.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Charlie [Re: stormpath]
      #18809 - Wed Aug 11 2004 03:30 AM

Did you say Charley was plotted west of Tampa Bay, or what will be known as Tampa Lake?

Edited by danielw (Wed Aug 11 2004 03:32 AM)


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Colleen A.
Moderator


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Re: Charley [Re: jth]
      #18810 - Wed Aug 11 2004 03:30 AM

This is the discussion of the eastward shift of Charley from the 11pm Advisory:

Quote:

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT FAST FORWARD
MOTION IS LIKELY ENHANCING THE WINDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE
BEYOND THAT WHICH WOULD NORMALLY BE SUPPORTED BY A 999 MB STORM.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/22...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY BE JUST
A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THAT. Charley IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHILE TROPICAL STORM BONNIE IS OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND A DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD MOVE Charley
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY RECURVATURE TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THIS HAPPEN.
THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE NOW TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 72 HR...
CALLING FOR Charley TO TRACK ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
AND WESTERN CUBA ON ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE CLUSTERING HAS BECOME EVEN TIGHTER THAN 6 HR AGO SINCE THE GFS
AND GFDL HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD...WHILE THE NOGAPS HAS SHIFTED
EASTWARD. THE FIRST 72 HR OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGE JUST A
LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. AFTER 72 HR...WHILE
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DIRECTION.
S SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT ON THE SPEED BETWEEN THE FASTEST NOGAPS...THE
INTERMEDIATE GFDL...GFS...AND NHC98...AND THE SLOWER BAMS. THE
FORECAST WILL COMPROMISE ON THE SPEED...CALLING FOR Charley TO MOVE
INLAND ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST OF FLORIDA AND ACCELERATE TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE 72-120 HR PART OF THE FORECAST IS CONSIDERABLY
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
TROUGH SHOWN IN THE MODELS.






I think it's based more on the trough/ridge than a reformation of the center of Charley. Dennis Phillips just made another point of noting that 5 of the models are in agreement on the track; although he is trying to stress it could change, I think he is yelling PAY ATTENTION!!! if you read between the lines.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


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Posts: 1432
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Re: Charlie [Re: stormpath]
      #18811 - Wed Aug 11 2004 03:37 AM

Thanks, Stormpath. It was the updated track, so that would mean two consistent runs between 5 and 11.

I think tomorrow will be "Hurricane Hell" here in west Central Florida.

(Please stay on topic - and that wasn't)
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Aug 11 2004 04:17 AM)


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Recon? [Re: Alex K]
      #18812 - Wed Aug 11 2004 03:48 AM

anyone know what time recon is tonight?

i know its every three hrs starting 1500z on wed...


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Recon? [Re: Anonymous]
      #18813 - Wed Aug 11 2004 03:52 AM

I'm not seeing any data, and I know that one of the WX Chan mets was on the last bonnie flight. He's back at Keesler now.
I think they may wait to make a 06Z or 12Z run. At least the 12Z run. Should be airborne nlt 05Z or 11Z. So we have to wait a while. Good time to catch up the other data. IMO.


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