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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


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Re: Charlie [Re: Colleen A.]
      #18814 - Wed Aug 11 2004 03:55 AM

Looking at the latest models & Satellite loops, looking more like a SW Fla storm, with the lower keys possibly getting clipped too. Local stations here in S Fla were saying that the Keys emergency officials will make a decision as early as the AM on any possible evacs/recommendations.
Last few frames seems like the CDO is moving more NW than WNW, could be just a temporary jog or uneven expansion of the CDO, in any case Jamaica will be under the gun tomorrow.

TG


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SirCane
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Re: Recon? [Re: danielw]
      #18815 - Wed Aug 11 2004 04:01 AM

I don't really trust models this far in advance. We'll see by tomorrow how things are looking with Charley. I think this could go anywhere from New Orleans to Tampa. As for Bonnie, don't count her out yet. She's still, in fact, there spinning around.

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Anonymous
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Re: Bonnie [Re: SirCane]
      #18817 - Wed Aug 11 2004 04:07 AM

looking at a few sat shots and ndbc info.... it looks like bonnie has CDO over the center again now.... i noticed in last 45-60min that there appears to be a good strom complex, with great rotation over the center or just north of center..... i think she is making a come back

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Anonymous
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Re: Charlie [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #18818 - Wed Aug 11 2004 04:10 AM

very interesting....few hrs old check out Charley

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Steve Hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Steve Steve Steve [Re: Colleen A.]
      #18819 - Wed Aug 11 2004 04:13 AM

Colleen Colleen Colleen, you could get a good blast from this. Wondering what affects we will see here in east central Florida.

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Joe
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Re: Recon? [Re: Unregistered User]
      #18820 - Wed Aug 11 2004 04:15 AM

Recon missions
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml?


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Colleen A.
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Re: Steve Steve Steve [Re: Steve Hirschb.]
      #18821 - Wed Aug 11 2004 04:17 AM

Depending on the track, if it crosses the state, you'll probably get soaked. So go buy yourself a real good umbrella, my friend.

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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Anonymous
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Re: Bonnie [Re: Anonymous]
      #18824 - Wed Aug 11 2004 04:22 AM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/rgb-loop.html

bonnie appears to be oh...... take a look a last few frames

stronger?


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BillD
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Re: Recon? [Re: Joe]
      #18825 - Wed Aug 11 2004 04:28 AM

They have screwed up the NHC site again, I am losing faith in them lately. They overlaid the "today" recon schedule with "tomorrow", what we want to know is what is happening tonight, and this starts at 11/1500Z which is not until tomorrow morning. The next recon data should be coming in soon, but it is time for me to get some sleep.

Bill


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Charlie moving fast ...towards somewhere in Florida [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #18826 - Wed Aug 11 2004 04:30 AM

Okay...
so is like this...

Someone, somewhere in South Florida is going to have to deal with a strong threat of Charlie affecting their weather on the way to parts north.

The problem is not where Charlie will end up as much as where he goes on his way there.

1... west of keys
2...thru keys (eww...whimpering here)
3...oh lets not talk about north keys and SE fla..long shot anyway

As I see it right now.. Charley is going more NW than WNW. He is going so fast that I figure by the time my son and I online got done arguing that one he had traveled the distance from downtown Miami to North Miami Beach.. again "ewww"

So... aside from the "how strong?" "how big" and "how fast" my biggest question here is at what angle is he aiming for Tampa Bay.

Nice to say Tampa Bay but if he comes in around Marathon than the upper Keys and SE florida is on NE quandrant with tons of weather.

Watch.. he'll probably stall in the straits when steering currents go flat.. mark my words, would be ironically pathetically funny replay of Donna. But Donna stalled a lot, Charley never has..

Charley has gone chug chug zoom zoom across approximately over 400 miles in one day. I know I'm not a math major but... approx 25 mph foward speed over 24 hours.. you do that math..

I'm glad I'm not Billy Wagner tonight because he has big decisions to make down in the Keys. Normally he could wait a bit but with this ongoing forward speed and the tracks encompassing the lower keys.. he has to act as soon as possible. And he always does which is why I admire him greatly. So...if some announcement is made tomorrow morning that they will start a evacuation of non-residents in the lower keys tomorrow sometime.. IF..you all know that Miamians everywhere are going to stop, look, listen and run to Publix. Or at least make shopping lists.

Could go west of the Keys.. and then slam into those bay cities on the West Coast but..I think that's not the most likely scenario with her current motion being closer to NW than WNW.

And, while I've been writing this he probably went further than the average commute to work for most the people reading this... think on that one. Don't think too long or it will have gone another five miles.

Where will he hit Cuba?
At what angle?
How big will he get?
How big/strong will he get?

How many times will the models be pulled left and right over the next 24 hours before we know who is really under the gun as he makes his way towards a probable West Coast landfall.

I think a track blending Cleo from the South and then Donna track takes over...

My guess..

Good night.. we should all get some rest, we won't rest much tomorrow night.

And if Billy is reading this somewhere...sorry I can't make you laugh tonight but do me a favor and go light some candles in the grotto for me...
Bobbi
ps...too tired to proofread from looking at loops so correct the mistakes yourself and if I called him a her or a he well ..Im tired, wish they were all named after girls again...would be easier and more honest...;)

--------------------
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joepub1
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Re: Steve Steve Steve [Re: Colleen A.]
      #18828 - Wed Aug 11 2004 04:36 AM

Having spent the last hour reading all the posts for the afternoon and evening since at least one of us has to work.....
I notice all of my fellow floridans that at least care what a hurricane is and can do have been checking in. I'm still trying to get my thoughts together and still have alot of data to sift through, but the one I can make now is it looks like we are going to take the hammer for awhile as Miami and the SE coast take a nap. Chuckie could still be a Cat1 has he passes over my garage and back yard swing. I don't know about the rest of you, but I hate my garage and really love my swing. This is going to be a weather event, people. For some reason I've had a funny feeling about this one. Don't know why, just have.

Does anyone else think we are paying the price for the waves coming off of africa so low? Low waves, fall/winter like cold fronts(in structure) in August; can anybody find an analog year for this mess? It hit me the other day when somebody posted that a nice looking wave coming off of africa seemed too low; they almost all been kinda low to me. Now we are getting long-trackers into the EGOM on a semi-reg basis

Strange season already, and it's just really started


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BillD
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Re: Recon? [Re: SirCane]
      #18829 - Wed Aug 11 2004 04:37 AM

It looks more NW to me too, in the last few frames. But it could just be a wobble... we'll know more tomorrow, and I am going to get some sleep, because if it is shifting to the right, I'm not going to be getting much sleep over the next few days.

Bill


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Bonnie [Re: Anonymous]
      #18831 - Wed Aug 11 2004 04:38 AM

just a side note.... the weather radio just went off here on panama city.... guess what it said..... a TS has been just issued for the florida panhandle.... well lets not get to quick... it's only about 1h30m off!!!! watch came out long time ago!!!

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Bonnie [Re: Anonymous]
      #18832 - Wed Aug 11 2004 04:42 AM

Bad timing-delay the panic or accelerate it at night.
Tomorrow is going to be busy in the FL panhandle.


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Anonymous
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Re: Bonnie [Re: danielw]
      #18834 - Wed Aug 11 2004 04:50 AM

last 30min on sat shot show spiral banding starting up on south side all the way to NE side of storm (shear is light now here) CDO appears to be centered over low level cir
and i think i am seeing good fan out from center in upper level!
think recon might be leaving soon. Short flight, not to far to go!


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Bonnie [Re: Anonymous]
      #18837 - Wed Aug 11 2004 04:55 AM

I checked my email and the recon is Not tasked until 11/1500Z or 11 am EDT. Double checked it against the earlier Plan of the Day. Same flight times.
They did add one flight. Gulfstream 4 on Charley for 12/0000Z or 6pm EDT on Wednesday evening. High altitude 43,000 to 45,000 ft. No lat/longs listed.


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HanKFranK
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Re: Bonnie [Re: danielw]
      #18838 - Wed Aug 11 2004 04:56 AM

bonnie doesn't look much the worse at this hour. convection has once again returned to this small system, after a strange no-shear decoupling earlier today. can only wonder if the surface system is going to ever respond to the good environment.. not with the NHC on increasing shear capping the development.. think the alex going northeast situation will apply here as well. baroclinic effects and perpendicular coast approach should tighten the center near landfall on thursday. not very confident in my forum assertion, but it's as good as any, really. convection is looking better overnight but we've done this before.. until a real structural improvement takes place this is going to be tropical storm bonnie forevermore.
charley, if it isn't starting to outrun it's convection, is going to be a hurricane tomorrow and quite possibly a major hurricane by friday. i'm not going to stick a pin anywhere, but my ideas right now are western cuba close to havana, the lower keys, and the coastline between naples and tampa bay. it could graze the coast for quite a distance with that angle of approach... this is all four days and low confidence. i do expect a 3-4 range hurricane by that time though. more likely a 3 as it won't be over open water the whole time. most intensification.. am thinking will take place friday.
getting ideas about the convection near 13/38. too early to mean anything, but i do expect something to start acting up out there before the weekend. new wave passing off africa isn't looking half bad at this hour either.
as for the subtropics off the east coast.. westerlies out there should cool off some tomorrow and definitely by the weekend. watching the one further west the most, but the piece near/east of bermuda could also be a candidate. these latter mentions are all low prob, just other things to watch while bonnie and Charley have most of our attention.
HF 0456z11august


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BugsBunny
Weather Watcher


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waves [Re: HanKFranK]
      #18843 - Wed Aug 11 2004 06:03 AM

very typical of a non el nino year, all three systems this year developed form tropical waves

Alex moved off of Africa on July 19
Bonnie moved off of Africa on July 29
Charley moved off of Africa on August 3

also, seasons beginning to remind me a little of 2000 and 2001--like 2000 this year seems to have the waves comming off of Africa at low latitudes (as joepub1 mentioned earlier) and like 2001 the systems seem to all be moving pretty fast


--------------------
forecast: 17/14/9/5
to date: 3/3/2/1


Edited by BugsBunny (Wed Aug 11 2004 06:10 AM)


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Storm Cooper
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Re: Steve Steve Steve [Re: joepub1]
      #18844 - Wed Aug 11 2004 06:29 AM

This would be more fun if not for work.... looks as if the PC area will see the best of Bonnie whatever it may be. Charlie has me worried for more than one reason... the area has had a lot of non-tropical rain yesterday & today... I don't think Bonnie will have a chance to dump that much but "C" following close behind may cause a major flooding event.

Coop

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1

Edited by Storm Cooper (Wed Aug 11 2004 07:05 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Charley 0624Z [Re: BugsBunny]
      #18846 - Wed Aug 11 2004 06:32 AM

It would appear that there is some type of cycling going on with Charley's center. Colored IR zoom shows a slot penetrating the center and tightening up around the lowest temp. clouds in the SE quad. Almost like cinching your trouser belt. May be spinning up, may not. Won't be long. 5 hours til daylight.

Bonnie. Cycling again. Lowest temp. pixels back in the center of the swirl. Some outflow bands? barely visible on the color IR. Shortwave off to the immediate NW may spell trouble for this cycle though. Still not seeing anything significant from the buoys. With Bonnie's size I don't really expect to see much change in the buoy data, unless she passes over one of them like Lilli or Isidore did.


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