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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Anonymous
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Re: CENTER EXPOSED? BONNIE [Re: Unregistered User]
      #18583 - Tue Aug 10 2004 03:42 PM

bonnie appears to be fighting some bad northerly shear this morning....

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Kal
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Re: Cantore? [Re: LI Phil]
      #18584 - Tue Aug 10 2004 03:44 PM

FYI - Hurlburt Field (Fort Walton Beach) has gone to HURRICON 4 - 72 hours before the anticipated arrival of sustained winds of 50 knots. Preparations are underway on the Emerald Coast.

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LI Phil
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Good Tracking Map [Re: Kal]
      #18585 - Tue Aug 10 2004 03:50 PM

From hurricanetrack.com, here's an interesting tracking map.

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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Cantore? [Re: Kal]
      #18586 - Tue Aug 10 2004 03:51 PM

URNT11 KNHC 101530
97779 15304 30239 87200 57200 99005 56741 /4592
RMK AF966 0103A Charley OB 05


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Cantore? [Re: Anonymous]
      #18587 - Tue Aug 10 2004 03:53 PM

looks like boys made a pass on bonnie
000
UZNT13 KNHC 101524
XXAA 60155 99253 70878 08157 99019 29256 17012 00165 27650 16511
92851 21830 17511 85581 18057 19514 70217 09239 17010 50594 05162
11508 88999 77999
31313 09608 81508
51515 10166 00050
61616 AF966 0103A BONNIE OB 04
62626 SPL 2532N08783W MBL WND 16512 AEV 20400 DLM WND 17512 01853
8 WL150 17012 081 =
XXBB 60158 99253 70878 08157 00019 29256 11938 22418 22903 21056
33850 18057 44805 14857 55766 12863 66729 10640 77612 03857 88491
05963
21212 00019 17012 11963 16012 22892 18511 33850 19514 44740 16511
55677 17512 66578 16013 77491 10508
31313 09608 81508
51515 10166 00050
61616 AF966 0103A BONNIE OB 04
62626 SPL 2532N08783W MBL WND 16512 AEV 20400 DLM WND 17512 01853
8 WL150 17012 081 =


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hurricane_run
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Re: Good Tracking Map [Re: LI Phil]
      #18588 - Tue Aug 10 2004 03:56 PM

http://www.hurricanetrack.com/Java/seatemp.html

heres another map.


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joepub1
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Re: Cantore? [Re: LI Phil]
      #18589 - Tue Aug 10 2004 04:05 PM

So JB thinks Charley is WGOM, does he....

While myself and Bugs were up at oh, 2-3 am this morning, I started to see that a case could be made for such an event. But this morning I'm swinging back over to a EGOM landfall again. What bugs (no pun intended) me is that if the cold front misses 'Clyde' Florida could get blocked for a short time from a landfall from the west. But I'm seeing too much this morning to lead me to believe thats not going to happen(FL landfall) as Chucky is covering too much ground in a short period of time to get missed. Still, JB tends to look at the worst case most of the time. Not that I think a landfalling Cat3 in the panhandle/bend area is the lesser of two evils.

Just much more likely to happen
In my May numbers that I put up, I also said that Florida would get hit by two named storms this season. I didn't know that they would show up in the same week......
13/8/4
3/1/1
soon to be 3/3/2???


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LoisCane
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Re: another repost of my forecast [Re: BugsBunny]
      #18590 - Tue Aug 10 2004 04:07 PM

cracking up...you are doing me in rabbit, sorry you missed that july storm

anyways...... i have problems with a forecasted track that was based on a front picking up bonnie and then hearing on TWC "lets take a look at that stalled out front"

seeing as the last one stalled out too..why would we think this one wouldnt?

next one looks stronger but i...

do not see bonnie moving NW yet..

so all bets are off in my mind

lol, funny day so far...

so like Charley is approaching gulf on 35th anniversary of Camille. wow...35.. amazing, beautiful gorgeous incredibly intense storm which formed back in 69.. 35 years, my gosh

well...let's live in the present for now and stay focused

its 2004 and Charley but hard to forget that date coming up

Bobbi giggling, you are alll sooo cute!
in a very very good mood here

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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Clark
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Re: Cantore? [Re: LI Phil]
      #18591 - Tue Aug 10 2004 04:10 PM

LI Phil - dunno where Cantore is going, but I do have an e-mail out to a friend at TWC to see if they are sending her out (yes, an OCM, but I'd prefer not to reveal her identity) and, if so, where. If I hear anything on that regard, I'll post it (unless I'm told not to share it). I'm interested myself because a group of us in Tallahassee are thinking about heading out there on Thursday ourselves and were wondering where TWC was looking.

I found the North Florida evacuation map for the Big Bend region. It's more of an evacuation map than a storm surge map, but serves the same purpose as evacuations here ar ebased upon predicted storm surge. Note that the blank spot in NW Wakulla County is due to the fact that no one lives there - it's all forest - as opposed to no impacts.

The map is at: http://lcso.leonfl.org/guide2004/images/evac_map2.gif

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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RedingtonBeachGuy
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Re: TD#3 Upgraded to Tropical Storm Charley [Re: Clark]
      #18592 - Tue Aug 10 2004 04:11 PM

Anyone have a link to some detailed storm surge potential maps for the Tampa Bay area? The one posted earlier is pretty vague. I am wondering what the surge would be like in a cat 3 here on the barrier islands.

Charlie is a bit of a worry for us in Pinellas County because the shear over us has been directly east for days now and doesn't look to be going anywhere soon. We are concerned he might get caught up in that shear and take a hard turn east right into us (which is not to common I should say).

Ideas?


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scottsvb1
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Re: TD#3 Upgraded to Tropical Storm Charley [Re: Clark]
      #18593 - Tue Aug 10 2004 04:13 PM

2 Systems=2 landfalls, most likely will happen, but most likely not in the same area. First with bonnie, recon continues to show a tight compact system and dry air to its west. A trough coming down thru Texas and La will begin to nudge the system in maybe a small loop to the N then ENE to back NE as it starts to move quicker Thursday. I dont expect Bonnie to go more W then.2 or 3 this afternoon then start to turn later tonight into weds. Winds with her now are near 60mph. Again this could just as well weaken since this is a very small system. I dont think that will happen as the exhaust to the ne from Bonnie will provide nice outlfow on her eastern flank. The trough will cause the NE general motion and when a system moves with the direction of the upper winds ,generally it will not inhibit strengthning. Its like walking thru a stream. Bonnie will be walking though with the stream current. I think this could be close to or just above hurricane strength. Hardest forcast right now is where. It could be from Cedar Key (yes that far east) to Mobile. The next bigger trough later in the week into the weekend will have a affect of Charley.
Charley looks awesome with a almost perfect outflow pattern over the last 12-24 hours. The TS are near the center and pressure continues to slowly fall as forcasted. A more gradual strengthning process should start Thursday night with a slowing in speed. The speed should actually start slowing down in speed on weds evening. Now the major topic on this isnt really the strength as we all see this from 80mph to as high as 125mph by the weekend. Points are of landfalls. Right now its a wait and see on where Charley will be to the strong trough over the eastern U.S. Friday thru the weekend. As of 12pm eastern right now I disagree with the placement of the position of Charley already. I have him at 14.4N and 69.1 W. The center is clearly on the NW edge of the CDO and SE of a nice band to its N and NW. I expect the TS to wrap into the system and this will continue to get better looking. Models are split with the system, I will disagree with JB on the path of this right now as he and the Ukmet,Nogaps keep Bonnie more S and move it thru the Yucitan and towards Mexico(Nogaps) and Texas (Ukemet). Here is my disagreement, for 1 they dont initallize Charley that well, and keep it open til it gets w of Jamaica(already wrong). Also with the initialation of the wave it keeps it around 15 N to 77W cause it shows a open wave or weak low(as we all know its not). Weaker systems of waves generally move with the lowlevel flow and stronger system moves with the mid level flow and feel the affects more from upper disturbances or troughs in the atmosphere. Now the GFS takes Charley up across Cuba and parelles it to western florida up to the Big Bend area. I will agree with this for it has a better handle on the system but I wont say this will be the land fall spot. Too early to make a 4-5 day landfall forecast spot. Also to note with the center probably going to be relocated more N were i see it most of the models will tend more N also, but NOGAPS and Ukmet need to initialize Charley better or they will continue to move this w. Anyways with a current more adjust NW position, I feel this will keep Charley very close to Jamaica and possibly making Landfall there Weds evening. A turn near the Ise of Youth to the N will make Key West a threat but I think it will stay to the west of Key west(not good for them cause worse weather generally if further reaching to the E of a system) and move up N close to and along the GFS path. Again to early to call a forcast landfall in florida. Also to note as i posted yesterday, If Charley slows down enough over the weekend and the trough moves out, then Charley could meander and drift w or wnw towards the n central gulf beginning of next week, wayyyy to early to even call. On bonnie I expect hurricane watches to go up tongiht for the Mobile- Panama beach area if it gets better orgainzide later today thru this evening and Hurricane watches for Jamaica later tonight. At least there should be!!! scottsvb


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Clark
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Re: Cantore? [Re: Clark]
      #18594 - Tue Aug 10 2004 04:17 PM

A thought.

Bonnie is forecast to be accelerating NE in the 4 day time frame or so. Tropical cyclones interacting with midlatitude boundaries can often leave behind a boundary of their own - or at least keep the one that recurved it around for awhile. We saw this with the trailing bands from Alex & the front it got caught by, for instance.

With this boundary in place and another forecast to be diving southward, I'm not sure I can see the western GOM in too much peril from Charley unless it remains a relatively weak system - in which case it doesn't react to the steering flow and continues WNW-bound. Charley is expected to be in the NW Carib./SE GOM around the 4-5 day time frame and, assuming at least a moderate tropical storm by then, would tend to get caught up and recurve.

How much and when are still yet to be determined. But, as the NHC noted, there is good consistency out to 72hr amongst the models - which all performed well with Isabel on track last year - but they diverge at later times. The models that keep it weaker trend west, the models that develop it trend east. The NHC is going with the latter and I tend to agree. But again, it's so far out that things can (and probably will) change, so these are just my thoughts for now.

This whole pattern is more reminiscent of October than August, at least it seems.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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LI Phil
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Tampa [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #18595 - Tue Aug 10 2004 04:19 PM

This is from Hurricanecity. Stats for Tampa.

For a storm surge map, scroll to the bottom of the page and highlight "map1". There's other good info too.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: TD#3 Upgraded to Tropical Storm Charley [Re: scottsvb1]
      #18596 - Tue Aug 10 2004 04:22 PM

I need sleep,, to many sp words, Yawn!.

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jth
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Bonnie [Re: LI Phil]
      #18597 - Tue Aug 10 2004 04:28 PM

The center is now partially exposed on the NE side of the convection. It is still moving generally NW to NNW, but looks to be pulling away from the convection. As has been stated earlier, this could weaken as fast as it strengthened.

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rickonboat
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Re: Bonnie [Re: jth]
      #18598 - Tue Aug 10 2004 04:50 PM

Considering the resiliency so far from Bonnie, I seriously doubt that she will die in the GOM in the hot part of August. The water vapor loop shows dry air on the west side, but this will close in as the somewhat stalled front and Bonnie rendezvous.

She will become a hurricane, and explode. I think the fact the eye is so small, and that it has never been seen before in a storm this new, is interesting, and might pose a few curves no one has thought of.

It's Charley that will be the widowmaker...a true Gilbert or Andrew in the making.

we shall see.


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Clark
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FSU Superensemble [Re: Clark]
      #18599 - Tue Aug 10 2004 04:53 PM

Had a friend on campus take a look at the FSU Superensemble forecasts. Not sure how recent they are, but I'm guessing it's based off of available 0z and 6z model data.

For Bonnie, it calls for a landfall near Destin on Thursday.

For Charley, it sends it into the central Gulf in 5 days. Think along the lines of the 5am forecast path of Charley from the NHC and you've got it.

We'll see how it changes with the Gulfstream data for Bonnie later, the 6hr raobs going up along the Gulf coast & in Norman and Dallas/Ft. Worth here in the next few minutes, and better initializations of both Bonnie and Charley in the global models.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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LI Phil
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rick...lol [Re: rickonboat]
      #18600 - Tue Aug 10 2004 04:58 PM

>>> It's Charley that will be the widowmaker...a true Gilbert or Andrew in the making.

And where might the final destination be?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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rmbjoe1954
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Cape Verde Season [Re: Clark]
      #18601 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:00 PM

Has anyone noticed that nice looking wave that exited Afirca?

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________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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James88
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Re: Cape Verde Season [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #18602 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:11 PM

That wave off of Africa doesn't look too bad. I wonder whether it is a little far south, though. Meanwhile, there seems to be a flare up of convection occuring near or over Charley's centre. It's small at the moment but maybe it will get bigger.

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