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NHC advisories to begin shortly on Storm 01L (Potential Tropical Cyclone 01L) in the Western Gulf. Elsewhere, low east of Bahamas being tracked.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Colleen A.
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Re: Sat info [Re: Londovir]
      #19248 - Thu Aug 12 2004 05:44 AM

Howdy, neighbor! I'm in Lakeland, too. Great 1st post!

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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Sissy
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Re: Bugs/Rabbit [Re: Colleen A.]
      #19249 - Thu Aug 12 2004 05:45 AM

Hi Everyone,

Just heard on the news that a hurricane watch was issued for Sarasota..and the surrounding counties but can't find it on the Internet yet.

Here in Orlando, one of the local mets showed the NHC track and then another possible track further west. I hope they get this nailed down by tomorrow.

Sissy in Central Florida


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: NHC we've got a problem! [Re: Kimster]
      #19250 - Thu Aug 12 2004 05:45 AM

Miami I think we may have a problem here!
If that windspeed observation is right then he is building up pretty fast.
URNT14 KNHC 120440
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
01167 10803 12510 11616 02013
02168 20801 22510 21715 02012
03170 30799 32508 31715 35010
04171 40797 42504 41716 99005
05173 50795 52500 51716 99005
06175 60793 62488 61915 33017
07176 70791 72460 71616 31034
MF176 M0791 MF047
OBS 01 AT 0331Z
OBS 07 AT 0359Z
OBS 01 SFC WND /////
01180 10788 12448 11515 12072
02182 20785 22480 21717 14065
03184 30784 32495 31815 12051
04185 40782 42509 41814 13056
05187 50780 52516 51814 13047
06189 60778 62520 61815 13042
07191 70776 72526 71715 13044
MF180 M0788 MF098- 18.0N 78.8W Max Wind 098kts (112.7mph)
OBS 01 AT 0409Z
OBS 07 AT 0439Z
OBS 07 SFC WND /////
RMK AF968 0403A Charley OB 21

*Something doesn't look right with this observation-don't be alarmed-Yet*

Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 12 2004 05:54 AM)


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Colleen A.
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Re: NHC we've got a problem! [Re: danielw]
      #19251 - Thu Aug 12 2004 05:51 AM

Um, could you say what the problem is in English, LOL? I have no clue what all those numbers mean. Are you saying that Miami, Florida has a problem or NHC in Miami has a problem? Thanks.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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javlin
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Re: NHC we've got a problem! [Re: danielw]
      #19252 - Thu Aug 12 2004 05:55 AM

Hey Dan does it look though as if Chuck has slowed down?
And I did not think he would build up that much tonite.

Edited by javlin (Thu Aug 12 2004 05:57 AM)


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ChrisT
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Re: Sat info [Re: joepub1]
      #19253 - Thu Aug 12 2004 05:56 AM

Charley's winds up to 85mph at 2am.

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BugsBunny
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Re: NHC we've got a problem! [Re: danielw]
      #19254 - Thu Aug 12 2004 05:58 AM

I am assuming since the winds are at 85mph, that wasn't an error, but likely the flight level winds

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forecast: 17/14/9/5
to date: 3/3/2/1


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Londovir
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Re: NHC we've got a problem! [Re: danielw]
      #19255 - Thu Aug 12 2004 05:59 AM

Colleen:

It's basically saying the wind is starting to kick up in Charley. The top "chunk" of numbers are measurements of wind speed and temperature that the plane crew made on the way into the storm; the bottom "chunk" of numbers are measurements made on the way out.

Without decoding it entirely, each line is basically latitude, then longitude, then wind "height", then temperature/dewpoint, and lastly wind direction & speed. So the first line showed 02013 for the wind number, meaning 020 wind (coming from nearly north) with 13kt winds.

The ugly part is the line that begins MF. (Interesting choice of letters ). It shows maximum winds. On the outbound leg, they found 98kt winds...NOT cool....especially as far south as it is right now, got plenty of time to build...

Londovir


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Anonymous
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Re: NHC we've got a problem! [Re: Colleen A.]
      #19256 - Thu Aug 12 2004 06:00 AM

I am reading this information you gave and have no idea what this means. Will you please explain? Does this mean Miami is in big trouble from Charlie?

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joepub1
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Re: NHC we've got a problem! [Re: danielw]
      #19257 - Thu Aug 12 2004 06:00 AM

Talk about going deep in a hurry. Geezzz Charley.

Welcome aboard Sissy. Somewhere earlier in this forum or the last one the same thing came up about media outlets showing two different tracks. Most of us would tell you to stay with the NHC track, they've been doing this awhile. Most of us has lost when we butted heads with them over where a storm is going. If something has changed, they will get the word out in a timely fashion. Otherwise, be prepared for the worse as best you can, we can't control most things.

Hang around awhile; there is alot to learn around this board. Just watch out for the rabbit. He can cast evil spells or something on storms and make them do strange things, but he hasn't found the wooden stake. Yet.

Anybody seen the 2am updates yet?


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: NHC we've got a problem! [Re: javlin]
      #19258 - Thu Aug 12 2004 06:03 AM

Okay I'll explain the problem. The observations went from a 98kt wind at 18.0N / 78.8W to a
72kt wind at 18.0N/ 78.8W.
While it's poosible to have a very tight pressure gradient inside a hurricane the winds on both sides of the 98kt observation are quite a bit lower.
In respect to the last post I checked NHC and they are going with an 85mph wind on the 2AM advisory.


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javlin
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Re: NHC we've got a problem! [Re: danielw]
      #19259 - Thu Aug 12 2004 06:07 AM

Will Dan Chuck has slowed down some last set of cor. 10.75mph the set before that 15.6mph.The NHC use an average of the last 9 hrs for computation of direction and forward movement.The ULL has either stalled the system or is about to start the launch N.

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Sissy
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Re: NHC we've got a problem! [Re: joepub1]
      #19260 - Thu Aug 12 2004 06:08 AM

Thanks Joe.

I think I will stick with Channel 9 in Orlando...They are only showing the official track. The last time Orlando went through a hurricane was I think back in 1960 with Donna. I will be prepared!

Stay safe everyone,
Sissy


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Colleen A.
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Re: NHC we've got a problem! [Re: javlin]
      #19261 - Thu Aug 12 2004 06:14 AM

I don't know that it is slowing down enough to start making that NW turn just yet. It's coming, but I think it's going to stay on a W/NW course for at least a few more hours. Which, of course, the anchorman on TWC just announced that this could be a big problem for Florida.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Matt33
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Re: NHC we've got a problem! [Re: Colleen A.]
      #19262 - Thu Aug 12 2004 06:23 AM

If this is so powerful why doe's it not have a clear eye?

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Charley [Re: Colleen A.]
      #19263 - Thu Aug 12 2004 06:24 AM

Seems to have lost it's nice clean signature on the Dvorak loop. Still wondering whether the ULL just NW of Charley is influencing him.
The 98kt report came from the plane and I'm sure they have error checking built in the equipment.


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Storm Cooper
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Re: Sat info [Re: joepub1]
      #19264 - Thu Aug 12 2004 06:27 AM

Just FYI.... there is light rain & no wind right now. Pretty dark also. I have the camera ready just in case I can get something worth it... looks to be landfall around 11am. At least it will be daylight.

Coop

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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BugsBunny
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Re: NHC we've got a problem! [Re: Matt33]
      #19265 - Thu Aug 12 2004 06:28 AM

being shrouded by high clouds--I've seen Cat IV hurricanes without a well defined eye on satellite imagery. Charley does have a closed circular eye beneath the clouds according to the recon plane on the last report

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forecast: 17/14/9/5
to date: 3/3/2/1


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Sat info [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #19266 - Thu Aug 12 2004 06:29 AM

for what? its presure is 1010mb, thats barley even a depression thunderstorm. Get some sleep and watch Charley. Hes worth it.

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javlin
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Re: NHC we've got a problem! [Re: Colleen A.]
      #19267 - Thu Aug 12 2004 06:30 AM

You are right Colleen but it can turn easily at that speed 20mph and greater not so easy.Some other events N will dictate when.

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