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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Charley [Re: BugsBunny]
      #19268 - Thu Aug 12 2004 06:32 AM

Yes, I saw the C10 mile eye on the report. I'll go along with the hidden eye too. It's just the major convection seemed to blow apart off the western tip of Jamaica. Might have gotten a hold of the hills there.

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javlin
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Re: Sat info [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #19269 - Thu Aug 12 2004 06:39 AM

Sucks does it not might not get a snow day after all.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Charley Vortex-Wind Up, Pressure down [Re: javlin]
      #19270 - Thu Aug 12 2004 06:43 AM

URNT12 KNHC 120554
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/0554Z
B. 18 DEG 12 MIN N
79 DEG 20 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1303 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 041 DEG 70 KT
G. 295 DEG 08 NM
H. 988 MB-down 1mb in 1:50
I. 17 C/ 1548 M-down 1C
J. 20 C/ 1522 M-down 1C
K. 19 C/ NA-up 1C- warmer inside the eye
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C15- was 10 miles, now 15
N. 12345/8
O. 1/5 NM
P. AF968 0403A Charley OB 23
MAX FL WIND 98 KT NE QUAD 0407Z.
*Report earlier was correct Max wind 98kts/ 112.7mph at flight level, not the surface. Surface wind is calculated as a percentage of the flight level wind.*


Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 12 2004 06:50 AM)


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Londovir
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Bonnie's Weakening [Re: Unregistered User]
      #19271 - Thu Aug 12 2004 06:44 AM

Boy, Bonnie is thankfully losing quite a bit of her punch right now. Most recent recon flight into Bonnie found it was almost not even a tropical storm. 1:30am flight found only 22kt (25mph) max winds near center, and a pressure of 1010. The highest winds at all in it were 39kt (44.9mph), so if she keeps it up like this, Bonnie is going to be a bad thunderstorm. Of course, it's just sleeping for tonight, but it's going to need a big flare up to regain its strength.

Londovir


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Colleen A.
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Re: NHC we've got a problem! [Re: javlin]
      #19272 - Thu Aug 12 2004 06:48 AM

Well, time will tell when/where it's going to turn. The slowing trend is not good. If it gets past the Cayman Islands and then begins it's turn, there won't be much land mass to effect it in Cuba.

I'll see ya'll....uh, later this morning.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Storm Cooper
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Re: Sat info [Re: javlin]
      #19273 - Thu Aug 12 2004 06:51 AM

Well true.... she is running out of real estate but this time yesterday I looked at her and it looked like a junk pile.... a few hours later a whole new story.... may be no time for a rebound like that now but you never know. I'll still have time to kill in the am

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Londovir
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Re: NHC we've got a problem! [Re: Colleen A.]
      #19274 - Thu Aug 12 2004 06:52 AM

Night Colleen! It's looking more and more like either the northwest turn has begun, or the hunters are having some fun spotting the center. The jump from the 0404Z fix to the 0554Z fix is around 310 now, so it's real close to NW, but the speed seems a bt higher than set of fixes, with the speed close to 18.4nm/hr (21.2mph). Is it just a center repositioning, or a speed up? Guess time will tell....

Londovir


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joepub1
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Re: Charley Vortex-Wind Up, Pressure down [Re: danielw]
      #19275 - Thu Aug 12 2004 06:54 AM

It seems that Charley is droping a mb an hour, and I don't think a visable eye is that far away now. The flow coming from the east will improve as he moves away fron Jamaica. He's filling in a dead spot just to the NW of the eye. Forecast to pass to the NE of the larger Cayman island. Could he pass just a hair to the south of it? Would it mean anything in the bigger picture?

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Londovir
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Re: Charley Vortex-Wind Up, Pressure down [Re: joepub1]
      #19276 - Thu Aug 12 2004 07:11 AM

Ya know, Charley seems to be slightly north of where most of the models had wanted to put it. The last fix has it up to 18'12 and 79'20, which only the 12/00Z BAMS model wanted to put it that far northward. (I'm being really picky - the models were pretty tight that early in their prediction, but Charley's riding the very tip-top of the lines...) Funny thing is BAMS has it curving out and around Tampa and hitting Florida north, closer to the Suwanee River area. I 'm real interested in seeing what the recon data plugged into the models will do to them. I get this feeling the models are going to slide a hair to the east, though I just flipped a coin for that bold declaration.

I'm definitely saving the model graphics from the 12/00Z run to compare at the end, though.....too bad sleep calls, and I better listen as today's going to be a really busy preparation day for me. Laters all,

Londovir


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Anonymous
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Re: Charley Vortex-Wind Up, Pressure down [Re: Londovir]
      #19277 - Thu Aug 12 2004 08:20 AM

This thing is bombing big time!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! A small eye has appeared on Ir satellite. It is wraping I expect 100 mph winds at the next Advisory. In maybe by the end of the day 115 mph. I'm going to top this sucker out at 130 mph

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Ricreig
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Re: NHC we've got a problem! [Re: Colleen A.]
      #19278 - Thu Aug 12 2004 08:43 AM

Quote:

I'll see ya'll....uh, later this morning.



Good night/morining Colleen...When you wake up, try this URL to a good strike prob chart maker from Univ of Hawaii. Substitute your town, lat and long for a custom chart. Below is for Orlando, East side of town.

http://www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/cgi-bin/...ion=Orlando+Fla


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ROB H
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Re: NHC we've got a problem! [Re: Ricreig]
      #19280 - Thu Aug 12 2004 09:53 AM

5AM advisory brings Charley ashore in or near Pinellas county. Jon Winter a local NBC met just said Clearwater
beach area.I know track can change and sure hope it
does. The last time this area was hit was 1921. A hit
here now by even a moderate storm would be devastating.


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GuppieGrouper
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Re: NHC we've got a problem! [Re: ROB H]
      #19281 - Thu Aug 12 2004 11:40 AM

Its a beautiful morning here in Polk County. A stranger would not guess that a hurricane is threatening the Florida Peninsula. I am closely monitoring the news trying to figure out how much of a westward trend the mets are talking about. The local news says that we would start to feel the storm in the Tampa Bay area when the storm gets to Ft Myers latitude about noon -2pm Friday afternoon. The longer this storm stays on the coast the more disaster we can expect from the prolonged wind and rain in an already saturated SOIl.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Anonymous
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Re: NHC we've got a problem! [Re: ROB H]
      #19282 - Thu Aug 12 2004 11:58 AM

5.AM NHC REPORT SAID NEW DATA IN COULD MOVE TRACK A LOT MORE TO THE LEFT THEY ARE GOING TO WAIT FOR MORE DATA TO MAKE THIS CALL NORTH GULF?SOMETHING ABOUT A HIGH BEING STRONGER .HAVE YOU GUYS SEEN THIS 5AM DIS.NHC. BE SAFE

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Rasvar
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Re: NHC we've got a problem! [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #19283 - Thu Aug 12 2004 12:03 PM

It appears my pre-bedtime worry is blooming into possibility. I am hoping that there is a further left adjustment. Big Bend can suck up a Cat 3 a lot better then Tampa. Be very interested in later forecasts.

With that said, I feel bad for emergency management officials in Tampa and St Pete. I think they have to make the decision to order evacuations. Can not afford to wait and gamble. Storm may still miss area and they will get raked over the coals for issuing the evactuation order. However, i think it is too close to take a gamble on saftey.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re:Red Flags with Black Squares [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #19284 - Thu Aug 12 2004 12:07 PM

Sorry, I had to change the topic a little,
The have issued Hurricane Warnings for the Keys Area. I'll update this with more in a few.

Here's a great color visible shot from tnrcc. Both storms!!

http://www.tnrcc.state.tx.us/updated/air/monops/data/satellite/GOES/GULF/vis30/latest.jpeg

Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 12 2004 12:12 PM)


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Anonymous
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Re: NHC we've got a problem! [Re: Anonymous]
      #19286 - Thu Aug 12 2004 12:17 PM

Quote:

5.AM NHC REPORT SAID NEW DATA IN COULD MOVE TRACK A LOT MORE TO THE LEFT THEY ARE GOING TO WAIT FOR MORE DATA TO MAKE THIS CALL NORTH GULF?SOMETHING ABOUT A HIGH BEING STRONGER .HAVE YOU GUYS SEEN THIS 5AM DIS.NHC. BE SAFE




Can you post the report ? And thoughts on this ?


http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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danielwAdministrator
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Re:Red Flags with Black Squares [Re: danielw]
      #19287 - Thu Aug 12 2004 12:20 PM

Most Recent Positions Regardless of Basin (if available):
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
12/1145 UTC 19.1N 80.4W T4.5/4.5 Charley -- Atlantic Ocean
12/0825 UTC 27.7N 122.2E T5.0/5.0 RANANIM -- West Pacific Ocean
12/0825 UTC 32.3N 164.6E T1.5/2.0 17W -- West Pacific Ocean
12/0615 UTC 27.6N 88.4W T2.5/3.0 BONNIE -- Atlantic Ocean
12/0545 UTC 18.1N 79.1W T4.5/4.5 Charley -- Atlantic Ocean


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LoisCane
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watching and reading along [Re: danielw]
      #19294 - Thu Aug 12 2004 12:34 PM

Hi.. watching the loops more than the various discussion. I think its too early to believe in too much discussion until the storm actually crosses Cuba. From experience they can do funny things. Everyone here seems to never mention the crossing of Cuba and there is an impt element here that no one is talking about.

Bonnie is racing.
The front is digging
Most of the weather is on right side of Charley
It hasn't crossed Cuba

We haven't even started the 4th quarter and everyone is writing post game analysis.

My opinon.

Have heard why it will go more left, I still don't buy it. OR I buy eye itself is but weather is pushed more to right because of wind flow out ahead of front that is pushing weather being blown of Charley to NNE out ahead of storm moving NNW.

A lot to say and this storm takes on worst case scenarios..

2 storms and now the main road US1 is closed down due to an accident. Not JUST an accident...an overturned tractor trailer with what seems to be a chemical spill. There are 3 ambulences on the scene. Channel 7 out of Miami doing great job with coverage of storm as well as close up of chemicals pouring out of tractor trailer and 3 amublences..that is a long term shut down leaving only small but beautiful card sound road on north end of Key Largo as the only road out.

Seems to me except for Charley sparing Jamaica a direct hit everything has gone wrong that could go wrong right now.

Bad data in is bad data out and everything is very fluid. One mistake in model forecasting can create a bad problem down the road.

So... seems to me we are in late 3rd quarter of this Florida part of the game (before flooding moves up the coast) so... waiting to see what happens now as we switch sides of the field and how that affects the quarterbacks throwing game not to mention the kicker. Just which way is the wind blowing and hope there at no funky swirls in this particular stadium (shades of old shea stadium) so...

until its half way into cuba and we see how it takes that crossing and where...all bets off

Think NHC is doing a kick ass job.. just there is variance in that cone and there is variance built in for a reason. And the data they are going over is already old data and its a very fluid situation. Going to see how nicely that gulfstream jet works it looks like and..

as with Irene ..more concerned with where the weather goes and not the exact pinpointed eye..

as said on tv..this weather set up is more like october than august and well... track looks more like august storm tho we rarely have august storms hitting florida from the south..happens but not rarely especially in early August

so so so much to think on
you are all doing a great job, love reading along

sorry if I am a bit out of it on IM with friends.. situation here is very (smiling) fluid.. got to go do errands, will be on later

thanks

bobbi

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: 5 AM Charley discussion [Re: Anonymous]
      #19295 - Thu Aug 12 2004 12:34 PM

Hurricane Charley
000
WTNT43 KNHC 120908
TCDAT3
HURRICANE Charley DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

THERE HAS BEEN A LEFTWARD SHIFT IN MUCH OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE THIS
MORNING...WITH THE UKMET AND THE GFDL SHOWING THE GREATEST CHANGE.
DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE G-IV MISSION LAST NIGHT SHOWED A LITTLE
MORE RIDGING OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THIS MAY HAVE BEEN RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE SHIFT. I DO NOT WANT TO MAKE ANY RADICAL CHANGE TO THE
TRACK UNTIL THIS TREND CAN BE CONFIRMED...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK
HAS BEEN SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT FOR THIS ADVISORY. MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWS A LANDFALL FROM THE TAMPA AREA
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BIG BEND AREA. BECAUSE Charley IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA COAST AT A SHARPLY OBLIQUE
ANGLE...IT IS UNUSUALLY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT Charley'S
LANDFALL...AS SMALL ERRORS IN THE TRACK FORECAST WOULD CORRESPOND
TO LARGE ERRORS IN THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF LANDFALL.

edited for space. the full report is listed under Charley on the left side of your screen-edit


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