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Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 290 (Idalia) , Major: 290 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 290 (Idalia) Major: 290 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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ticka1
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Re: Charley is heading awfully westerly to me [Re: Unregistered User]
      #19010 - Wed Aug 11 2004 06:44 PM

Has Charley's forward motion slowed down any? I think even if he is now south of the forecasted track he will eventually be pulled northward and towards Florida.

I just hope folks prepare and heed the warnings.

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Kevin
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Re: Charley is heading awfully westerly to me [Re: Unregistered User]
      #19011 - Wed Aug 11 2004 06:53 PM

I'm going to throw out a couple of reasons as to why I (IMO) think Charley is moving a little more westerly at this time. Naturally, I'm going to show you all a steering currents map:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/archive/wg8dlm1-2.html
This image of the steering current map shows that 6 hours ago the ridge anchored in the Western Atlantic was extending towards 90 west. Naturally, Charley was moving wnw.
3 hours ago the ridge actually seemed to flatten out somewhat, causing a more westerly steering current.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm2.html
The most recent map that Charley may be caught up in a more east to west steering flow, but with the way these patterns change, Charley's more westerly movement probably won't last for a long time.

Oh and btw...does anyone here seem to think that NHC's 5 AM track was too far south? Their track from 11:00 PM last night may turn out to be more accurate.

Another reason for Charley's more westerly movement could possibly be the formation of an eye. This MIGHT be causing Charley to wobble a little.

On another note, more time over water and less interaction with Cuba could mean a stronger storm. I still expect Charley to hit Florida's west coast, with Tampa northward at a higher risk for a direct landfall.


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Kevin
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Re: track arguements ... [Re: Unregistered User]
      #19012 - Wed Aug 11 2004 06:57 PM

"Constant motion not fluxuations.
We are in for the long haul."-Bobbi

Can't the stress the importance of this enough. I believe that NHC uses satellite fixes that are several hours in length before determining motion.

When making a forecast, biting too hard on what could turn out to be a short-term trend can ruin your forecast. With that being said, the new models have shifted to the west, now indicating more of a northern FP landfall.


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rmbjoe1954
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Re: track arguements ... [Re: Kevin]
      #19013 - Wed Aug 11 2004 07:00 PM

These discussions are great, but to be effective, you must disclose the name of the storm you are talking about.

Thnak you.

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Kevin
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Re: track arguements ... [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #19014 - Wed Aug 11 2004 07:03 PM

HAHAHAHAHA, thanks Joe!

I was talking about Charley.


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Steve hirschb.
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Re: Charley is heading awfully westerly to me [Re: Kevin]
      #19015 - Wed Aug 11 2004 07:03 PM

Need to correct myself here for the record. That SW eye 'o Charley is false. Taske a good look at the Dvorak loop. The circulation center is north of that, as you can see the convection wrapping around the center. It's trying to wrap tight and gives the appearance of an eye, when its actually to the SW of the center. Its still heading wnw and will begin its turn to the NW tomorrow. Its on track. Unfortunately, Radvak may be right. It has had no interaction with land, and when the trough begins to affect it, it have more time over the hot GOM.

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Kevin
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Yet another post... [Re: Kevin]
      #19016 - Wed Aug 11 2004 07:05 PM

Look at latest vis loop of Charley:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html
It looks to me like Charley's rather cloudy eye is "jumping" back towards Jamaica again. Turning the zoom feature on will help illustrate what I am saying.


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LI Phil
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Most recent models-note the more westerly track [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #19017 - Wed Aug 11 2004 07:05 PM

models

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alan
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looks almost NW to me [Re: Kevin]
      #19018 - Wed Aug 11 2004 07:07 PM

http://intellicast.com/Local/USNationalW...ne&pid=none

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jth
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Re: Most recent models-note the more westerly track [Re: LI Phil]
      #19019 - Wed Aug 11 2004 07:08 PM

Will NHC shift track west at 5???? I think so. The new models are more reliable as they initialized in the correct area and had more data from recon flights.

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Kevin
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Re: looks almost NW to me [Re: alan]
      #19020 - Wed Aug 11 2004 07:09 PM

Agree, although this should average out to a wnw motion when you consider the more westerly tracking that occured earlier.

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SirCane
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Re: looks almost NW to me [Re: alan]
      #19021 - Wed Aug 11 2004 07:10 PM

Here's an awesome shot of Bonnie....
Bonnie

As for Charley, looks like the models shifted to the left.


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rickonboat
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Bonnie looking organized and ready to crank up..fo sure! [Re: LI Phil]
      #19022 - Wed Aug 11 2004 07:12 PM

Bonnie is taking a more classic shape to me. She might suprise us...moving at just the right speed....some hapless folks east of me may catch a category 2 on the chin.

hope nobody falls asleep with her...looking over her shoulder at Charlie...


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tornado00
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up In Florida for Bonnie and Charley [Re: MikeC]
      #19023 - Wed Aug 11 2004 07:16 PM

Well it seems even if Charlie varies a little, it will strike in the general area of Tampa Bay. Which means that Charley's center will pass right over my house. Think its going to be a little windy, especially since going to be in the northeast quadrant. Think it's time to batten down the hatches.

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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
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Re: Most recent models-note the more westerly track [Re: LI Phil]
      #19024 - Wed Aug 11 2004 07:16 PM

Those models appear to be compiled at 10:30 AM this morning. Though it says UCT not UTC so I am not sure if there is another time zone that I am not aware of ?

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jth
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Re: looks almost NW to me [Re: SirCane]
      #19025 - Wed Aug 11 2004 07:17 PM

Can someone please tell us what Joe B's most recent take is.

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jth
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Re: Most recent models-note the more westerly track [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #19026 - Wed Aug 11 2004 07:20 PM

Yeah those are from earlier, and they already shifted west prior to the more westerly track. I think they all may shift further west on the next run. That said, Charles does seem to be moving more WNW now.

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Anonymous
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Re: Most recent models-note the more westerly track [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #19027 - Wed Aug 11 2004 07:21 PM

I think they wrote it in Central Standard Time this morning.

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Anonymous
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up In Florida for Bonnie and Charley [Re: MikeC]
      #19028 - Wed Aug 11 2004 07:26 PM

Guys I don't see the trend westward happening. I could be wrong, buI think the NHCs track is fairly close.

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LI Phil
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Dvorak's [Re: Anonymous]
      #19029 - Wed Aug 11 2004 07:26 PM

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
11/1745 UTC 16.6N 76.7W T4.0/4.0 Charley
11/1745 UTC 26.1N 89.6W T3.0/3.0 BONNIE

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