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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Jamiewx
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Gov. Bush declares state of emergency [Re: Unregistered User]
      #19030 - Wed Aug 11 2004 07:27 PM

here are some bits from an orlando sentinel news article, have posted a link but you have to register to view it, and the article is too big to put all of it up.

"The prospect of back-to-back hurricanes hitting Florida within a day caused Gov. Jeb Bush to declare a state of emergency, some schools and government offices to close and forecasters to warn residents to prepare for the worst."

"Monroe County emergency officials were recommending that visitors evacuate the part of the 100-mile-long island chain under the watch, which can take several hours because there's only one road to the mainland. Residents were not being told to leave.

Apart form the state of emergency, Bush said more areas may need to be evacuated and he activated the Florida National Guard. In Monroe County public schools were scheduled to be closed Thursday and Friday, and schools in the Panhandle counties of Calhoun, Gulf, Liberty and Walton will be closed Thursday."

for anyone that wants to register, the link to the whole article is here

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/weat...=orl-home-promo


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Anonymous
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Re: Most recent models-note the more westerly track [Re: LI Phil]
      #19032 - Wed Aug 11 2004 07:35 PM

The link you posted brings up a page with Bonnie. Is it Bonnie or Charley?

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LI Phil
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Re: Most recent models-note the more westerly track [Re: Anonymous]
      #19033 - Wed Aug 11 2004 07:40 PM

They're BOTH on there. May be a little hard to distinguish since their future tracks (north of FL) are similar.

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met
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Re: note on area of hurricane force winds not just eye [Re: Anonymous]
      #19034 - Wed Aug 11 2004 07:43 PM

HI im afraid Charley will go up to 2 0r 3 cat. west. cuba is flat, central and east cuba are mountanis.

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GaryC
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Re: Most recent models-note the more westerly track [Re: Anonymous]
      #19035 - Wed Aug 11 2004 07:44 PM

Phil, so you are saying those t #'s are for real? Thats kinda scary to think that a hurricane at 90+ mph winds is 2 days out. So who thinks bonnie will hit hurricane tonight? Lets do the poll.


Votes accepted from (Sat Jun 15 2024 10:29 AM) to (No end specified)
View the results of this poll



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jth
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Re: Most recent models-note the more westerly track [Re: LI Phil]
      #19036 - Wed Aug 11 2004 07:45 PM

When do the new models come out?

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Anonymous
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Re: Most recent models-note the more westerly track [Re: LI Phil]
      #19037 - Wed Aug 11 2004 07:46 PM

The BAMM model shows Charley heading for the LA coast. Does it seem to be keying in on something that other models are not seeing, or is it just flat out wrong? I would like to see some peoples professional explanation on this.

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Rasvar
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Afternoon fade [Re: LI Phil]
      #19038 - Wed Aug 11 2004 07:46 PM

Looks like Bonnie and Charley are going through their afternoon fade, which is ok by me. Rather not see them get really cranking. Nothing that appears to be out of line with either system though. Both seem to be behaving pretty close to what has been predicted.

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Rasvar
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Re: Most recent models-note the more westerly track [Re: Anonymous]
      #19039 - Wed Aug 11 2004 07:49 PM

The BAMM model uses a different set of varibles. Others with more expertise can chime in here with more info on it. My impression is that BAMM is usually more reliable on hybrid systems and not as good on pure tropical systems like Charley.

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wxman007
Meteorologist


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Re: Most recent models-note the more westerly track [Re: Anonymous]
      #19040 - Wed Aug 11 2004 07:50 PM

BAMM is a mid-layer beta advection model, and is not the right model for use with a deep storm like Charley...it should be discounted...

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javlin
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Re: Most recent models-note the more westerly track [Re: LI Phil]
      #19042 - Wed Aug 11 2004 07:54 PM

I hate to keep harping about it but seems to me the weak Low to the W of Charley is affecting the path.The low is still moving W now that Bonnie is moving NE.The closer that Charley gets to Low the more of a N push by Charley.The low seems to be clearing a path for Charley.The Low seems to of started moving again at decent clip.If it gets over theYUC it should bring Charley over tip of Cuba.Bonnie I think puts a wrinkle in the trough for Charley.I would think that Charley goes further W into maybe AL. or FL panhandle.

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Steve
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Re: Most recent models-note the more westerly track [Re: javlin]
      #19044 - Wed Aug 11 2004 08:03 PM Attachment (201 downloads)

Bonnie looks great on visibles, but she's definitely moving a bit more ENE than she is NE IMHO. Unless she pulls up north into NW FL, she may even go in farther east than my call (Bay or Walton Co.). Here's your first eye-witness report. We had some thunder in the distance earlier and I confirmed with radar and satellite that some general convection lined up just over us WSW-ENE and moved across. It's not a seabreeze and not the butt end of the trof. So I'm just calling it my one little taste of Bonnie.

Steve

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DroopGB31
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Re: Most recent models-note the more westerly track [Re: wxman007]
      #19045 - Wed Aug 11 2004 08:06 PM

Hey Jason, What effects do you think we'll feel here in Pensacola? Actually Im 10 Miles SE of Pensacola but anyways, Im no really expecting to much except some rain, but how about winds. My local discussion has said wind gust too 50 knots are possible. Do you see this? I personally think that may be to high. Should be intresting though. I think I may chase Bonnie to Destin or PCB since it has no chance of landfalling here.

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Steve
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Re: Most recent models-note the more westerly track [Re: Steve]
      #19046 - Wed Aug 11 2004 08:07 PM

Btw, the attachment is a picture out of my 4th Floor Office looking down onto St. Charles Ave. @ Gravier in the rain.

Steve

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wxman007
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Re: Most recent models-note the more westerly track [Re: DroopGB31]
      #19047 - Wed Aug 11 2004 08:08 PM

On the current track, I think P'cola gets by with very little impact...some rain, a little wind, but that will be about it.

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Jason Kelley


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LI Phil
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Bonnie track? [Re: Steve]
      #19048 - Wed Aug 11 2004 08:11 PM

Steve,

I gotta agree with your assessment, sure looks to be moving more easterly than north ATTM. Looked at the vis, IR & WV, and they all seem to be coming to the same conclusion.

Bonnie

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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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SirCane
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Re: Most recent models-note the more westerly track [Re: Steve]
      #19049 - Wed Aug 11 2004 08:11 PM

Looks like Bonnie is moving NNE.

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DroopGB31
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Re: Most recent models-note the more westerly track [Re: DroopGB31]
      #19050 - Wed Aug 11 2004 08:14 PM

Poor Steve, You need some action over there in Louisiana. LOL I'll be lucky if I can get a few squalls tomorrow morning, as Bonnie passes to my SE. Maybe we should start to watch Charley, as some models seem to take Charley further west into the Central GOM.

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Anonymous
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Re: Most recent models-note the more westerly track [Re: DroopGB31]
      #19051 - Wed Aug 11 2004 08:14 PM

Jason,
Do you have any kind of feel that Charley could go further west and catch just enough of the trough to send him NW through the Gulf? I Think Bonnie will move inland pretty fast and will weaken the trough a little. Therefore a high will build in behind her sending Charley on a more westerly course. Just wondering if that is a possibility or not. Anyone feel free to respond. :?:


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jth
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JK [Re: wxman007]
      #19052 - Wed Aug 11 2004 08:15 PM

What are your thoughts on Charley?

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