LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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No, I don't think Alex was forecasted to go inland...
TD7 Track
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Having just checked the archives, the first advisory on Alex had it going ashore in NC, and then emerging back into the Atlantic:-
Alex Advisory #1
But you're right, the track didn't take the storm as far inland as this one.
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Chrisras
Unregistered
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Just saw latest advisory. This storm is going to be a category 5 before we realize it. It is almost perfectly organized and appears to be rapidly intensifying. How do you think its slow forward movement will affect its track? I would think if it was a faster mover like Andrew it would impact South Florida but because its so slow it will eventually be picked up by a trough and thrown out to sea
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Steve
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Great Stacey Stewart comment (and why he's the best they have):
Frances is forecast to remain in a low shear environment and over
increasing SSTs throughout the period. The SHIPS intensity model
now makes a 113 kt major hurricane in 48 hours...since the
'self-induced' vertical shear has decreased owing to the
forecast positons being closer to the official track forecast.
There will likely be several fluctuations in the intensity over the
next 5 days...but category four intensity seems likely some time
during that period...and category 5 strength is even possible
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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52255225
Weather Guru
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Loc: Parrish Fl
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I dont think so. Im leaning towards east coast north central florida or south georgia coast. Youre right though, its a big one! 
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Rich B
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Hey guys,
just a quick post - looks like, that while everyone seems a little occupied with , the TD just off the SE US Coast could cause some real problems! Its a reasonably well developed system, but its a slow mover, going nowhere fast! This gives it plenty of oppurtunity to drop some pretty immense rainfall on parts of GA, SC, and possibly NC. Certainly something worth watching in the immediate future i think!
Regards
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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LI Phil
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>>> I would think if it was a faster mover like Andrew it would impact South Florida but because its so slow it will eventually be picked up by a trough and thrown out to sea
There are many possibilities with , including a possible ramping up to a CAT V (Agree Steve, Stewart is DA MAN). But one thing that is virtually certain is that is not going to spin the fishes. This is going to hit the US mainland, probably as a Major cane, somewhere...if it's to be Florida then it will probably be Friday-Saturday, elsewhere closer to Labor Day.
For the time being, let's keep those landfall guesses in the storm forum, not the main boards. Also let's keep the CAT V commentary down, as we don't want to scare someone with that possibility until and if such time actually occurs. Remember Sandia Flower from last year...
Great posts today guys!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
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rmbjoe1954
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That would depend on the location, intensity, and lifespan of the ridge. I don;t know what that would be, do you?
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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DMFischer
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Loc: Palm Bay
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Quote:
>>> Also let's keep the CAT V commentary down, as we don't want to scare someone with that possibility until and if such time actually occurs. Remember Sandia Flower from last year...
Great posts today guys!
Pssssttt I agree with keeping the Cat V rumbling down, but whats his name on channel 13 just told everyone that has excellent possibilities of making Cat V. I think the cat is outta the bag. 
thunder boomers movin in, im outta here, lost one pc to and this is my new one. I dont mess with canes and lightening.  
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Survived: Mitch '98-Charley's crossing'04-Frances '04-Jeanne'04 Survived near fatal fear from Floyd's threat.
Nearly grew gills with Fay'08
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StormLover
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I wouldn't say the talk of becoming a Category 5 storm is premature. It looks very compact and there seems to be a lot of convection and room for further strengthening. It is still days away from land, so much more time remains for it to gain strength. It may well end up making landfall somewhere between the northeastern Florida panhandle and Ga/South Carolina border. Providing no frontal system interferes, I would guess it will be a Category 4 at least when it makes landfall, maybe Category 5.
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Keith234
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The scary thing is that what the news media is going to do when this hurricane reaches it's peak intensity, I remember Isabel was first perdicted to hit long island and the news was going crazy, buy, buy,buy. Sometimes I think they overdo it, but then again it's better to be prepared then to not be. I hope this one doesn't go where it's perdicted to, this is a perfect canditate for project storm fury, which in my opinion worked.
Truth is that no one actually knows where it will go, not even the they can only make educated guesses, so don't get worried yet Floridians.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
Edited by Jason234 (Fri Aug 27 2004 09:49 PM)
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LI Phil
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Keith,
Isabel was never "perdicted" to hit Long Island; we did have TS warnings go up near the very end, but I don't even think we saw a TS gust. Regarding the media, however, you are exactly right. People around here old enough to remember Gloria fueled the frenzy and it didn't help that it was the hottest story for about four or five days.
Isabel sure scared the hell out of a lot of people and rightly so.
With regard to the CAT V hoopla, if that's what you're going to discuss, discuss away. To be honest, I have a feeling it will reach that intensity...all the right ingredients are there...excellent outflow boundaries...low shear environment (for now anyway)...strong bermuda high which will also increase outflow and cause strengthening...strong ridge forecasted to be in place...above average SSTs. Let's just see how strong she gets. As I said a couple of days ago...a classic Cape Verde longtracker.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
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Hardcore
Unregistered
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key line in the 5pm adv
category 5 strength is even possible
It's not everyday that we here that from the
Just !
http://hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php?t=536
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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The Alex track was not forecasted to go that far inland but it could have, as indicated by the white. The intensity forecast is nearly the same when Alex first started, we'll see but this might also become the next major cane, if it skirts the coast. This storm depending on when it starts on it's track it could affect LI but right now the trough would push it out to sea. Lets see what will happen.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
Edited by Jason234 (Fri Aug 27 2004 10:58 PM)
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Chrisras
Unregistered
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Where do you guys think Hurricane ranks in terms of strongest Hurricanes to Hit the U.S. I would guess
1. Labor Day 1935
2. Camille
3. Andrew
4.
5. Donna
6. Hugo
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meto
Weather Guru
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frances could be near camille, it is becoming a very dangerous hurricane. the bahamas ...... if the ridge is strong it will not go north.
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LI Phil
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>>> This storm depending on when it starts on it's track it could affect LI but right now the ridge would push it out to sea
No, actually the ridge would allow it to continue whatever movement it is currently tracking. Hurricanes slip under ridges...a trof, however, would have the opposite effect and serve to pick a hurricane up and take away from the .
You sound a little bit like you are trying to wish this bad girl our way. Be very careful what you wish for. Just ask anyone who just went through who thought it might be 'fun' to have a cane come their way.
I'd love for this thing to turn away but it's not gonna happen. Someone somewhere is going to be seeing a whole world of hurt. The best thing we can hope for is for deintensification as she reaches the mainland and for an eyewall replacement cycle to be occurring as well...but those only really happen in major canes...so the next best thing is to be prepared...very prepared.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
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meto
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also remember gilbert.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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Are there models up for TD2?
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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LI Phil
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Quote:
Are there models up for TD2?
Yes, it eventually became TS Bonnie and made landfall on the Florida panhandle. Just kidding...
TD 7:
td7 models
Only two so far, but more to come fer sher.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
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