Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Just in from the MLB wx folks:
FRI-SUN...00Z AND BEGINNING TO SHOW A WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE NORTH OF AND A TURN TO THE NW EAST OF THE AREA NEAR 77
DEGREES WEST BY SAT. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE UKMET AND CANADIAN
KEEP A STRONGER RIDGE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE AND TRACK THE SYSTEM
TWD JUPITER INLET AND THE FL KEYS RESPECTIVELY. THE 00Z HAD THE
BENEFIT OF 43 ADDITIONAL DROPSONDES ACROSS THE ATLC WHICH SHOULD
HAVE HELPED THE ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT AROUND .
FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE SOLUTION BEYOND DAY 5
WITH THE CAVEAT THAT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS STILL WITHIN THE 325 TO
400 NM ERROR CONE AT THIS TIME RANGE AND THERE IS STILL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY WHEN WILL MAKE A TURN (AND TO WHAT DEGREE).
I think this says it all. hopfully wins, but SE Fla still can win the booby prize.
PS http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
Edited by Ricreig (Mon Aug 30 2004 02:37 PM)
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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
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Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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HOW MUCH
THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN IS CRITICAL FOR THE LONGER-RANGE TRACK OF
THIS HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE LATEST
FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FORECAST. ONE CONCERN IS THAT THE MODEL
FORECAST TRACK HAS GENERALLY BEEN SHIFTING MORE WESTWARD WITH EACH
SUCCESSIVE RUN.
IT IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK...
ESPECIALLY AT 96 AND 120 HOURS...BECAUSE THE HURRICANE IS NOT A
POINT AND FORECASTS AT THESE EXTENDED TIME RANGES CAN EASILY HAVE
ERRORS OF SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.
Straight from the horse's mouth, the 11am discussion. Everybody needs to be weary and cautious with .
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Floridacane
Weather Guru
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Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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This is from the 7 day by county forecast on the Melbourne Weather Service site for all of East central Florida:
POWERFUL HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
THURSDAY MORNING THEN CURVE NORTHWEST...APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES THIS LABOR DAY WEEKEND. OCEAN SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH
FRANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING ROUGH POUNDING SURF AND POSSIBLE
BEACH EROSION TO THE COASTLINE. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW CLOSE HURRICANE
FRANCES WILL COME TO CENTRAL FLORIDA OR WHERE IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL.
EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT PREPARATION TIME BECOMES VERY LIMITED AS A
HURRICANE NEARS. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE URGES PEOPLE IN EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO HAVE SUPPLIES ON HAND AND A PLAN IN PLACE WELL IN
ADVANCE OF ANY HURRICANE BECOMING AN IMMEDIATE THREAT.
YOU ARE ADVISED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST ADVISORIES ON
FROM THE National Hurricane Center. STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS REGARDING
FRANCES THAT ARE SPECIFIC TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE.
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What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
Edited by Floridacane (Mon Aug 30 2004 02:42 PM)
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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satellite
radar
Gaston is still well organized--is it at all possible that it could move back out over water and regenerate like Danny in 1997?
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hankie
Unregistered
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you people are alarmists!
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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has anyone seen whats comming off of Africa?
97L
there have already been 8 storms this month--could there be 9??
Edited by Rabbit (Mon Aug 30 2004 02:54 PM)
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Rasvar
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Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I think that the Carolinas are the most likely destination. However, the cone of error keeps all of Florida well within it at the moment. Probably get a better feel tomorrow afternoon into Wednesday. It would not hurt to check or resupply your hurricane kits. will be a large storm, which may help keep her from getting back up to cat 4, if we are lucky she will fall to cat 2.
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl
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The models on Wednesday will be critical.
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doug
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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What's with the turn at the end of the forecast period? Carolina bound maybe?
frances' track
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Redbird
Unregistered
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Let's just keep our supplies on hand.............I am feeling awful about those in your area Kississimmee....................
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
has anyone seen whats comming off of Africa?
97L
there have already been 8 storms this month--could there be 9??
Yes, look at
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/index_ten_m_loop.shtml
and see what the shows hanging off the coat tails of on 9/15 or so.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
you people are alarmists!
Better be alarmed and informed rather than entertained and dead like the . This forum is a good place to express facts, interpretations and opinions. Often, we present the facts as we know them and look to other to help interpret them.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Redbird
Unregistered
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Isn't it best to prepare for the worst?
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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Pressure around the 5th is expected to be 954, which I assume would translate to 125 mph
The other system on the 14th is forecast at 986, which would be Cat I
and there could be another system behind that one
lots of storms being hurled at the southeast coast this year, just in a single month
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Isn't it best to prepare for the worst?
Yes, especially when there is any doubt what-so-ever as is the case with . In answer to the 'alarmist' post earlier by another, I would only add you don't wait to call the fire department when the house is already burnt to the ground, you call it at the first whiff of smoke! That's not being alarmist, it is being prudent.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Model runs over the next 5 days are going to be sooo important. I will post my 3 and 5 day forcasts later today on here and hopefully we will have a new thread up. As of my post 3 days back my 3 day forcast is right on. 5 day of it being near 20-21N and 70 looks close. Pattern is evoloving now with upper trough to the west and moving w. Somehow as a forsight into the future I suspect after a turn towards wnw near 70 a turn more westerly again near 75. But when the turn again NW? before on or after florida? I think i went too far already, will post later today. scottsvb
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Looks like will pass 60W to the south of 20N....inside the Hebert Box benchmark. The has been tending to follow the model in recent forecasts. Now they are becoming more alarmed since, just as they start to show confidence in a late NW turn, the is swinging back west. I wonder if this is because the hurricane has been moving almost due west for around 18 hours now, skewing the models. (?) Also, I see the forward speed as doubling since yesterday...though not reflected as such in official statements. But, look at the following past storm plots:
8/29.. 5am: 54.1W
8/29.. 11am: 54.7W (movement west of .6 degrees)
8/30.. 5am: 57.3W
8/30.. 11am: 58.7W (movement west of 1.4 degrees)
I believe the hurricane is moving more like 15-18mph, as opposed to the official line of 12mph. The implications down the road could be enormous. A faster moving storm early on will result in a position farther west before any northward turn occurs..increasing the danger to Florida.
As for intensity, I do believe when recon gets out there this afternoon, they will find she has strengthened...the satellite presentation has much improved. The eye is very small with very intense convection continuing to fire around the center....quite a different picture from last evening.
--Lou
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Redbird
Unregistered
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Ric in full agreement with all your points....................it is safer to plan as you said. 
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TAPA.html
Looking at the Visible:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
Looks like Antigua will start feeling affects from the extreme outward bands.
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Cane Watcher
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Loc: ATL/ via Melbourne
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Longtime lurker, first time post. I saw this on the Florida Today website and thought it would be somewhat useful to the discussion. I sure hope she recurves northward, I have a lot of family in that area.
FLORIDA ANGLE
National Hurricane Center computer models show a subtropical ridge blocking a northward turn by through three days.
However, forecasters say the ridge should weaken beyond 72 hours, allowing the hurricane to start its recurveature toward the northwest.
This means a possible close call for Florida. The current 5-day track has in the northern Bahamas east of West Palm Beach on Saturday morning.
The track shows moving northwest, meaning South Florida and possibly Central Florida will escape a direct hit, but will be buffetted by the west side of the hurricane.
In its late morning update today, hurricane center forecaster said how much
the ridge will weaken is critical for the longer-range track of this hurricane.
They also warned that forecasts of more than 72 hours out can have
errors of several hundred miles.
- FLORIDA TODAY
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