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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
Re: It Shifts Left [Re: trinibaje]
      #23148 - Thu Sep 02 2004 09:28 AM

Speaking of models, looks like Hurricanealley is going to a pay service later this morning...any free options?

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
my thoughts and questions [Re: Frank P]
      #23149 - Thu Sep 02 2004 09:30 AM

My thoughts...
First I'll try posting on my blog today when I can.. anything I can think of that anyone might need to know or want to know or just that I want to put there.

So...keeping this post short.

Going to work this morning so I will be posting very little online as I have a city job at the library and we are busy locking down the library and being there for all the regular patrons. More on this in my blog.

Point here is that everyone sees this storm doing what their own "worst case scenario" is..

My brother sees it going west soon into Miami.
My best friend Sharon thinks this is Ft Lauderdale's storm.
Friends online insist it will stay north and come in further up the coast.

Friends in South Carolina are worried.

What does it mean "a more southerly landfall" ???

Broward county just issued evacuation orders and had a press conference based on "new data" but no one seems to give the exact data.

As Kamal says... we are expecting surprises within the cone so that is not "unexpected"

The Summer of the Cone.

So... my question to you all here.. all of you who really know your stuff.

Is the storm slowing now because it has found

1) a temporary weakness in the high
2) it has reached the end of the high
3) is stuck with steering currents on all sides
4) all of the above

Because in my opinon its not impt what it does now as much as what it does tomorrow. And... so far believe the high is forecast to build back in stronger..

Would like to see Bastardi's scenario play out. Like to believe WxAmerica is right and it will stay to the left (leave a door open for offshore that way) and SNONUT who has insisted on right of track..

Hope so...
Reading what you are all saying.

So...someone please tell me

Is the storm going to stall?
Temporarily?

Will go watch better computers at work and give my thoughts later on a break.

Watching and waiting in Miami.. everyone is very cautious.
We remember Andrew... Betsy... Charley.

Hope for the best.. prepare for the worse...

Watch the storm.

NHC is doing a good job.. all and all.. but its common to somewhere make a mistake... will it be track? speed? intensity?

Love to see them get this perfect ...
Going to watch a lot of Norcross later..will give over anything important he says when I can post.

Pray for you all .. Bobbi
refer to my blog for some tips and more thoughts if you have time.

ESPECIALLY... mothers with kids waiting watching and worrying on the storm and their kids and their own sanity. Wrote some special posts for you.

Thanks Bobbi
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: It Shifts Left [Re: Unregistered User]
      #23150 - Thu Sep 02 2004 09:32 AM

Yep the GFDL runs off of the GFS which the 6z run of the GFS shows landfall near the Cape C and moves it thru Orlando and near Ocala then N. Lets all wait for the next 12Z run of the models to see if they all come together (somewhat).

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mojorox
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 46
Loc: Orlando
Re: It Shifts Left [Re: scottsvb1]
      #23152 - Thu Sep 02 2004 09:39 AM

Hello, I have been lurking here for years and this is my first post. We still have a ton of debri in the yard from Charley here in Orlando. We have only a certain amt of plywood. My question is..which direction will the worst winds be coming in? I have a ton of glass windows.
Thank you,
Helen


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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Re: It Shifts Left [Re: mojorox]
      #23153 - Thu Sep 02 2004 09:42 AM

Depends on if the center passes north or south of you. Right now, it looks like the winds will be out of the east in Orlando as it is forecast south of you. I am growing increasingly concerned about a second landfall on the North Central GOM.

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Chelsie
Unregistered




Re: my thoughts and questions [Re: LoisCane]
      #23154 - Thu Sep 02 2004 09:47 AM

I have a dumb question. I was planning to drive from Atlanta to JAX Friday, returning Sunday to spend a few days with my dad since it is our birthdays. We always spend this weekend together, but I should probably reschedule? Do you think traffic going north on Sunday morning will be unbearable?

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Mousie5
Unregistered




Re: It Shifts Left [Re: Shawn W.]
      #23155 - Thu Sep 02 2004 09:51 AM

I'm a single mom in Ocala, Fl. My boss and so on don't think this thing is going to come near us.. I have a 15 month old and Im pretty worried about the storm coming this way, we live in a prefab modular home.. although of course Id be going to a stable cement house if this thing does occur, What are the odds that it will hit Florida? Ive heard numerous thoughts.. such as it will hit ( on the radio this AM) but will be around a category 2. I've lived in Fl my whole life but have never been thru this

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Felix
Unregistered




Re: It Shifts Left [Re: scottsvb1]
      #23156 - Thu Sep 02 2004 10:05 AM

I'm in Punta Gorda & would like to share what I learned from Charley's 145 mph winds.

(1) Protect your doors & windows. If wind gets in the house your roof will be damaged (at least) & rain will ruin your belongings. It's not necessarily the force of the wind itself - it's the flying debris that you need to think about.

(2) Brace your garage door. It's the weakest point & if it caves in wind will get in. (See #1)

(3) Gas up your car, not just for evacuation, but because finding gas after the storm will be difficult. If the power is out it's hard to pump gas. You'll need to drive for supplies.

(4) Cell phones don't work when towers have been blown over. Communication could be next to impossible & you'll need gas to drive in order to check on people & to try to arrange for assistance.

(5) If you don't want to go to a shelter before the storm, you may want to afterwards. We had no water or phone service for a week & no power for 10 days.

Please, if you are in a mobile home, do not stay. Our frame house, well-built in 1990, survived (I believe) because we have excellent storm shutters on every opening & a double-braced garage door.

I hope this info will help somebody.


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dzinermw
Unregistered




Re: It Shifts Left [Re: Frank P]
      #23157 - Thu Sep 02 2004 10:05 AM

I've been following this forum for the past day or so and even though I know you all aren't builders, I have a question.....

My 3000 sq ft house was built in '68, completely concrete block with 3 different flat roof levels - tar and rock roof. I'm on a peninsula surrounded on 3 sides by Lake Down. I've got 40 sheets of plywood and starting to board up now, because I have 13 sets of sliding glass doors on the south and west side of my house, 2 sets of which are topped with 4 x 8 fixed transomes looking west. One of those got smashed by an awning during Charlie and is boarded up already. (A second round of facing a $7800 deductible is WAY more than the $1000 to board up my house!) The north and east sides are almost completely without windows, or nothing major, anyway. And I'm situation behind another house to my east but I have 2 huge very old pines and 3 huge very old Live Oaks.

My question is about inland lake flooding and flat roof structures. Those are the 2 areas I can't find any info about. I've only lived here since '91 and never imagined I'd be concerned about the strength of even THIS house!! The water is WAY up as of the past few storms since Charley, so we couldn't even cut the grass any more. I have flood ins because I'm DEFINITELY low!. As for the roof, I'm concerned about limbs puncturing it as was the case in some friend' homes with pitched roofs.

If this is the wrong place to ask about this, please let me know where to go for info or email me @dzinermw@hotmail.com. Either way, my son and I are flying out tomorrow AM after I board up today!

Thanks for being here! You are all gifted souls and appreciated tremendously!!!

Let's all just keep praying!!!


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cooljunkie
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 1
Re: It Shifts Left [Re: jth]
      #23158 - Thu Sep 02 2004 10:10 AM

If I am in Miami and assuming that the storm passes somewhere North of me, I hypothesize that the wind will start hitting me coming from the North, then it will shift to the North West and get stronger, then drop off and at the end it will be coming from the West. Is that correct?

Does anybody have any suggestions for data that I could use to estimate the wind speeds depending on how close it comes to me? I'm in a high rise in Miami Beach but I'm trying to decide whether to move to another place in Miami or to a shelter.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4111
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: It Shifts Left [Re: cooljunkie]
      #23159 - Thu Sep 02 2004 10:16 AM

Hey all apologies for the site going up and down like mad, record traffic despite efforts to distrubute bandwidth, is nailing us. Trying to keep it up so if it goes down it should be back up shortly again.

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ticka1
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 54
Loc: Southeast Texas
Re: It Shifts Left [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #23160 - Thu Sep 02 2004 10:20 AM

Quote:

Latest map is done. Streets with wind field...

NHC ADV#34





Awesome map Skeetobite! Great job - can I put this link up on my message board for the Florida members?

Colleen - good deal on your trip to Walmart - now at least that is one less thing to worry about.

Everyone in Frances path - God Bless and stay safe.

Ticka1

--------------------
Join www.wildonweather.com/forum Message Board


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: It Shifts Left [Re: MikeC]
      #23161 - Thu Sep 02 2004 10:21 AM

thanks Mike, doing a great job...

wind fields at 5:00 am per the NHC...

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.
50 KT.......120NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.

if you know how far you are from the eye, you can get a good idea of what to expect based on the wind field data listed above... could change depending on intensity cycles, as well as overall storm size..


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Proflhb
Unregistered




Re: my thoughts and questions [Re: Chelsie]
      #23162 - Thu Sep 02 2004 10:32 AM

Hi I live in Jacksonville Florida. Things are already getting crazy with everyone making their preparations. The traffic is expected to get very bad as people from S. Florida drive up 95 and Jacksonville makes their preparations. I suggest avoiding Florida this weekend if at all possible.

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Chelsie
Unregistered




Re: my thoughts and questions [Re: Proflhb]
      #23163 - Thu Sep 02 2004 10:34 AM

Thanks for the advice. Do you have any feel as to whether they will have you all evacuate mandatorily?

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida
Re: It Shifts Left [Re: ticka1]
      #23164 - Thu Sep 02 2004 10:40 AM

You're doing an absolute fantastic job, Mike. I can't thank you enought.

Just heard on Channel 9 (Orlando) is that the watches will be upgraded to warnings at the 11:00am advisory and the met says that what this means is that "we've stopped playing around with this, it's coming, folks."



--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Proflhb
Unregistered




Jacksonville Update [Re: Chelsie]
      #23165 - Thu Sep 02 2004 10:40 AM

Too soon to tell what will happen in Jacksonville - no warnings or watches yet. We should know better tonight. However, the storm is so huge that we are bound to have lots of rain and wind one way or the other.

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c ray
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 4
Re: my thoughts and questions [Re: Chelsie]
      #23166 - Thu Sep 02 2004 10:45 AM

Using the StormCarib site's "How close will it get?" feature with the 5AM track, the closest the center will get to us in Melbourne will be 41 miles. That would be after a couple of hours pushing inland. If that track came to fruition, any ideas how strong the winds would be at that point? Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated.

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Proflhb
Unregistered




News from Jacksonville [Re: Chelsie]
      #23167 - Thu Sep 02 2004 10:48 AM

I can tell you that in Jacksonville gas stations are already selling out. I filled my tank at 8am. The only choice was premium gas. The stores are already packed, schools are closed tomorrow...and we are not even under watch yet.

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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: my thoughts and questions [Re: c ray]
      #23168 - Thu Sep 02 2004 10:51 AM

Quote:

Using the StormCarib site's "How close will it get?" feature with the 5AM track, the closest the center will get to us in Melbourne will be 41 miles. That would be after a couple of hours pushing inland. If that track came to fruition, any ideas how strong the winds would be at that point? Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated.


In MLB? Cat-IV. You are not far enough from the land point forecast, most of the storm still over water, you on the NE side of the storm and 145 & higher in gusts won't diminish much. Eve 40 miles from center won't help when the eye itself is 20 miles wide, or more and the wind field is 4 times that in hurricane sectors. If you are real lucky, you might get *just* high Cat-III but don't count on it.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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