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NHC advisories to begin shortly on Storm 01L (Potential Tropical Cyclone 01L) in the Western Gulf. Elsewhere, low east of Bahamas being tracked.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 293 (Idalia) , Major: 293 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 293 (Idalia) Major: 293 (Idalia)
21.3N 93.0W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 999mb
Moving:
N at 6 mph
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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Hurricaned
Verified CFHC User


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Re: From East Orlando [Re: clyde w.]
      #24065 - Sat Sep 04 2004 10:37 PM

Clyde W., how would you describe the earlier weather. I life near UCF. Actually near Waterford Lakes.

Please keep posting what you observe! :-)

Quote:

I'm out by UCF, moderate rain for the last 30 minutes, breezy--but calling it windy would be pushing it. Will report in again as things deteriorate.




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hntr74
Unregistered




Re: From East Orlando [Re: clyde w.]
      #24066 - Sat Sep 04 2004 10:39 PM

WOW, is it true the eye is 70-80 miles wide? With it moving at snails pace its going to make it a long wait out My father and a crew of 48 will be down their with WE Energies from Wisconsin to assist in restoring power...Are Prayers are with all of you...

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Clark
Meteorologist


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Posts: 1710
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Frances near landfall [Re: MikeC]
      #24068 - Sat Sep 04 2004 10:41 PM

Not really much to add on the Frances front. Landfall looks like it should come sometime in the wee morning hours, probably at or very close to the current intensity of 105mph and just a bit north of West Palm Beach. Satellite representation has gotten a bit better, but not strikingly so.

The differences between the NHC and HPC from two days ago are starting to play out in terms of what the storm does after landfall. NHC, going off of the models, had been calling for a path over land; HPC, going off of actual analysis and understanding the errors in what the models were analyzing, called for a more westerly path that would skirt almost the entire Fl. panhandle. Now, the NHC has shifted towards that as well. (And yes, I've canceled plans to chase Frances in the panhandle.)

In any event, rainfall amounts are going to be torrential with this storm - though TWC is a bit out to lunch in suggesting flooding rains in Maine with this one by Wednesday. It'll still be near north Florida on Tuesday.

Ivan continues to get better organized, with an eye-type feature appearing earlier today. I threw out a path over Hispaniola yesterday to some friends, and that may well play out in five days. It's one to watch by the middle of the week as it approaches the islands. They're sending a G-IV out there on Monday to sample the environment, even before an actual recon gets out there, which I think is a very good thing.

More if conditions warrant...otherwise, it's time to hunker down and watch the storm as it crosses the state.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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schmoo
Verified CFHC User


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Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: Unregistered User]
      #24069 - Sat Sep 04 2004 10:41 PM

is it heading due west now?

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DutchPeter
Unregistered




Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: schmoo]
      #24071 - Sat Sep 04 2004 10:47 PM

Due west, with a hint north...

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StormHound
Weather Guru


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Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: schmoo]
      #24080 - Sat Sep 04 2004 11:27 PM

Anybody have reports from Indian River County? Looks like the worst is heading in there over the next few hours.

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Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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storm 1
Unregistered




Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: DutchPeter]
      #24085 - Sat Sep 04 2004 11:37 PM

press down to951 from 962 11mb drop look out.

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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist


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Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: storm 1]
      #24109 - Sun Sep 05 2004 12:17 AM

Just ran out and checked out a neighbors house while they are evacuated. The wind is getting stronger here (central Brevard) and the rain is picking up. I saw a few small trees blown over but not too much else. Have heard of some damage though to mobile homes and frame buildings. The lights are really starting to flicker so I don't think the power will be on much longer. While outside we the bright "transformer flash" from somewhere not too far. The news just said 2 million w/o power...the weather radio alarm just went off...tornado warning. Time to duck....

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Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1299
Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: storm 1]
      #24112 - Sun Sep 05 2004 12:18 AM

radar presentation showing hints of wobble effect in play during the most recent run of frames.... right now its slightly elongated SW to NE... as it continues to rotate over time the NE section of the eye wall should pivot and be relatively close to land (ft pierce) as it continues to move to the WNW or ~ 275-280 degrees.... its really looking good right now on radar... expect the winds to be increased at 11 IMO

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AngB
Registered User


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Posts: 8
Loc: S. Merritt Island
Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: h2ocean]
      #24117 - Sun Sep 05 2004 12:24 AM

Take care. Thanks for the updates!

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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist


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Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: AngB]
      #24123 - Sun Sep 05 2004 12:32 AM

AngB did you stay or go? Just saw more flashes from transformers and heard them this time!

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Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station


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Disaster Buddies
Unregistered




Weather Disaster or any other kind? We can help [Re: MikeC]
      #24148 - Sun Sep 05 2004 02:55 AM

The place where people help people www.disasterbuddies.com

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gtd
Unregistered




Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: MikeC]
      #24171 - Sun Sep 05 2004 05:18 AM

THIS IS FROM THE """LAND DOWN UNDER"""

JUST TO WISH YOU ALL GOOD LUCK AND SAFE PASSAGE
FROM ALL US "OSSIES".. WE ARE THINKING OF YOU AND PRAYING ALL WILL BE SAFE.. AND FRANCIS WILL WIN NO MEDALS ...

[color:blue] [/color] :crazy:


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