Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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With the newest forecast and discussion in from the and watching the runs from UK and , I have to think that if they don't start some evacuation and soon in New Orleans, there will be 48 hours of, in lack of a better term, sheer panic. New Orleans is a ery large city with a couple of ways out, either east into the Florida panhandle, west into Houston or north over Lake Ponchatrain, and that route closes when winds get too high....
I hate to say this, but I would rather have a Yucatan landfall or a panhandle landfall than have NoLa take a direct hit....I remember seeing something either on one of the networks or CNN about what would happen if NoLa took a direct hit and it wasn't very pretty.
I guess the clock is ticking, predicted landfall anywhere anywhere in the US is around 2am Thursday morning......
Sorry to sound so alarmist, but unless a turn happens soon, and I mean within the next 24-36 hours, then the fecal matter will hit the rotating cooling device....
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You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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Monroe County Emergency Management
Public Safety Announcement
Emergency Information Hotline 800-955-5504
(305) 289-6018
(305) 289-6333 fax
National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml
National Weather Service Key West: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/eyw/
Monday, September 13, 2004 - 5:00 a.m.
Florida Keys emergency management officials discontinued all evacuation orders associated with Hurricane early Monday and said residents who left the Keys due to the threat from the storm could return immediately. At the same time, tourism officials chose Thursday, Sept. 16, as the suggested date that visitors should being returning to the Keys. The decision to permit residents back was made after the latest forecast tracks provided confidence that 's dangerous core should remain well west of the Keys. A tropical storm watch for the Seven Mile Bridge through the Dry Tortugas National Park including Big Pine Key and Key West issued Sunday is likely to be discontinued at 11 a.m. Monday. However, the National Weather Service Key West office cautioned motorists to be mindful of some of the storm's outer spiral bands that might pass over the Middle and Lower Keys later Monday, bringing sporadic periods of heavy rain and gusty winds.
Officials urged evacuees to exercise the same patience in returning to the Keys as they did in leaving. Deputies are actively patrolling all residential and business areas and traffic enforcement officers will be patrolling highways to help ensure a safe return for all residents.
Returning residents are encouraged to fill up vehicle fuel tanks prior to entering the Keys as some gas stations report limited supplies. A few days are needed before fuel levels in the Keys return to normal.
Monroe County schools and offices are scheduled to be closed until Wednesday.
Keys tourism officials asked visitors to delay their vacation plans until Thursday to provide ample time for the tourism infrastructure to return to normal.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I just did the math and there was .2N and.2W between advisories. I think it has begun.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Kal
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 50
Loc: Space Coast
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The more northerly component I thought I saw early this morning...well...I still think I see it. Not dramatic mind you...just more than there has been in recent days. Time will tell.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Using this IR loop overall trend looks to be around 300 degrees, NW is 315 degrees... concentrate on the inner eye wall and not the eye per se as its wobbling all over the place.. set on fast motion
we'll have a real good idea on direction as it goes thru the yucatan... at its present location if it clips the NW tip of Cuba, then its going more around 315 degrees (+/- 5), if it stays in the center of the yucatan, closer to WNW and 290 - 300 degrees, clips the NE yucatan, 280-290 degrees... best guess at the moment
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
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mbfly
Weather Guru
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Posts: 119
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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Oh Chit !! THIS is NOT what I wanted to wake up and hear this morning !!  Thank goodness I made hubby go get plywood yesterday..........everything else I have. Now the question is stay or go. I was young and stupid when I stayed for Frederic; older and wiser now !
Rick ??? I hope you are NOT still on your boat ! Mine is safely put up in a warehouse -- I hope. 
PLEASE let this site stay up !!! I am a basket case already, and this is the only site that I rely on to get the most up to date info.
As for predictions, I think I mentioned a few days ago that my Mom was coming for a "visit".............. see attachment 
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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Can someone give a synopsis of Joe B's comments this morning. He stated last night on Fox news the he predicted between Mouth of Miss and Pensacola with an intensity that rivaled but did not exceed Camille.
Thankfully, I beleive he is overdoing the intensity, but i beleive he is dead on for track. Does appear is moving more NW now, but that could be a wobble. He appears to be right on the NCH forecast for now. Again, that could change.
All that said, I still wouldn't rule out a FL hit just north of Tampa. With the speed he is moving, he may still be very far south when the NE turn occurs.
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_east.html
Remind me again why Tampa is out of the woods?
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Terra
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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I know someone has mentioned this comment before, but I really want to emphasize how much this bothers me as a scientist. In Lawrence's 5 am discussion, he said:
"THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED ABOUT 60 N MI LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT 72 HOURS AND IS STILL TO THE RIGHT OF ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR THE . IF I DID NOT HAVE A PREVIOUS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY WITH...I WOULD HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK EVEN FURTHER TO THE LEFT. MEANWHILE...SINCE THE MOTION IS STILL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD..."
Great, they've shifted left.... I think that's prudent. However, to say that you would have shifted more, but you wanted to be more consistent with the guidance bothers me. If the current data projects a particular path, that's the path you need to take. If I am analyzing snow samples for HCHO and then are all very close to each other and then I get one that is a little off.... I cannot say, we'll all the other ones say this, so I am going to interpret this data to be in line with the previous data.
I really appreciate and respect the hard work of the , but that comment should not have been made.
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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teach1st
Registered User
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Posts: 2
Loc: Cream Corn, Florida
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Quote:
The system has not made a distinct northerly turn yet, it may clip the extreme western edge of Cuba, but with the "land avoidance" trait that has had (except for Grenada) I wouldn't be surprised if it were to go through the straits.
What mechanism would create or make a storm have a "land avoidance?"
Thanks for any replies. And thanks for this board. I'm in the Tampa Bay area and my parents are in the Panhandle, so this board is providing me with tons of relevant information. I appreciate it!
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fred
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 337
Loc:
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Guppie Grouper,
Enjoy your Monday. Start doing normal things again.
This is not Central Florida's storm anymore.
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RevUp
Weather Guru
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Posts: 181
Loc:
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This is no time for alarmist predictions, or premature calls for evacuation. If people want to leave, let them leave. Too many excited, panic-filled voices on radio and TV (and on this board) will lead to the same embarassing, irrational behavior we witnessed in Florida.
Instead its time for people to make rational, educated decisions. Help answer questions and do not panic.
Ivan hasn't even cleared the Yucatan channel yet, but it definitely looks like its making the NW turn, AND although the guidance suggests a weaker storm in the long run, intensity is one of the hardest things to forecast this far in advance.
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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Ronn
User
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Posts: 115
Loc: Seminole, FL
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Quote:
All that said, I still wouldn't rule out a FL hit just north of Tampa. With the speed he is moving, he may still be very far south when the NE turn occurs.
If slows down to a crawl or stalls, this is a distinct possibility. Do I think this will happen? No. But, it remains a possibility. Unbelievably, people are now returning plywood to the stores here in the Tampa Bay area after the mad rush over the weekend. What if unexpectedly turns NE farther south than currently forecasted? And what about the next threat?
God Bless,
Ronn
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RevUp
Weather Guru
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Posts: 181
Loc:
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Quote:
What mechanism would create or make a storm have a "land avoidance?"
"Land avoidance" caused by topography, sheer, trofs, ridges, etc. is usually on a smaller scale undiscernable by the models, etc.
When it comes right down to it, the absolutely best "mechanism" I've witnessed in terms of "land avoidance" is prayer. No one forecasted to take the track it has taken, much less explain the little turns and twists that have kept it over water this long.
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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Agree, I don't think it will happen, but it is possible. Those people are crazy for returning the plywood.
Accuweather has forecast to make landfall on the MS/AL border as a cat 4 Thursday early AM.
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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
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Quote:
This is not Central Florida's storm anymore.
I don't anyone should say that yet. is most certainly not past us yet, and so far he has defied all the forecasts. The mets in our area are still urging caution. And several mets on this board are learning towards a landfall further towards the east. While they are not saying landfall in Tampa, it would bring the eastern side of the storm to the central Florida area.
I guess I'm just amazed that after anyone thinks an area is out of the woods before the storm passes north of it.
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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looking at the water temp map linked above, it appears the Gulf waters are even warmer than the NW Carib....I think their comments about upwelling were only relevant when the storm was going to ride up the west coast of FL. The central gulf has been fairly undisturbed this year. Unless there is significant sheer, I don't see a very big weakening trend.
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Terra
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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All of a sudden when I tried to reload my radar pages, it said "Missing Image" when trying to load the progression and nothing happened. It's doing it on three radars that I have tried. Anyone see this before and know what it means?
Ok, it's better now.... weird.
It's doing it again.... seems to be every time I reload because there should be a new point in the radar....
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Terra Dassau Cahill
Edited by Terra (Mon Sep 13 2004 01:37 PM)
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javlin
Weather Master
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Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Contray the has been all over it for about a week now.The latest run takes all the way to 92'W.This seems to be somewhat extreme but it could being the way has behaved.I believe that only misses Cuba because of the the slow motion and weak steering currents he bounces off the land mass.This has been a consistent factor up to this point.Once he enters the GOM the turn will begin.How great I think nobody knows that yet have to wait and see.
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RevUp
Weather Guru
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Posts: 181
Loc:
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Well, for those of us outside the cone of concern, we can take a deep sigh of relief.  That doesn't mean we stop paying attention to what's happening. A lot can happen between now and Thursday. In the words of a great teacher, "Do not worry about tomorrow, for tomorrow will worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own." Have a great day!
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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