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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: Cudo's to FOX NEWS [Re: Terra]
      #26198 - Mon Sep 13 2004 02:40 AM

If its stays on its wnw track it could possibly clip the extreme ne corner of the yucatan.... this would not bode well for New Orleans or the MS coast... we need this thing to clip the western tip of cuba to take some of the western component out of it and make sure it goes to the east of us

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dani
Weather Watcher


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Re: Cudo's to FOX NEWS [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #26199 - Mon Sep 13 2004 02:40 AM

Wow, that's insane.

Do ya think that it'll maintain such strength into the GOM? I don't think the water in the gulf is too much cooler than where its presently located. Or do you see much weakening over the next 72 hours/

Thanks,
dani

--------------------
dani

Go Green Bay!


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Terra
Storm Tracker


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Re: Cudo's to FOX NEWS [Re: Frank P]
      #26200 - Mon Sep 13 2004 02:43 AM

My mom's already freaking out and is ready to walk out of the door after the 11am evacuation meeting. I think that's jumping the gun a bit.

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Terra Dassau Cahill


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LI Phil
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Re: Cudo's to FOX NEWS [Re: Terra]
      #26201 - Mon Sep 13 2004 02:46 AM

Offtopic for 2 secs...

anyone watching The Perfect Storm (I have it on DVD, watched it 50 times, but still). While it's not quite what going thru a hurricane is, I just hope anyone out there who thinks riding one out might be fun...well. You get the idea.

Plus, we do get some of these badass noreasters up here, only they are usually about 60 degrees colder!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Ivan, Ivan, Ivan [Re: MikeC]
      #26202 - Mon Sep 13 2004 02:48 AM

Had a big long post here, but the server and my foolishness with the back button ate it up. D'oh!

I'll quickly summarize...

Ivan is currently finishing up an eyewall replacement cycle, as recon has recently reported just one, larger eyewall of 28 n. mi. in diameter. Satellite photos confirm this, as the eye became less distinct an hour or two ago, but has shown signs of reappearing in recent images. From here, another 6-12hr of consolidation can be expected followed by one last shot at restrengthening before a combination of factors -- interactions with Cuba, eyewall/internal system dynamics, and a weakened outflow channel to the NE -- result in slow but steady weakening entering the Gulf.

Right now, outflow is impressive in all quadrants but to the NW, where it is only fair. However, this has been the case for a day or two now, and we can all see what effect this has had on the storm -- not much. Last pressure was 917mb, while the height of the 700mb surface remains below 2400m...or over 600m below "normal." A 20% difference shows you how strong this storm is on the whole. A little bit of dry air appears to be impinging upon the storm on the north & northwest sides, but this is mainly a result of dry air off of Cuba than anything else.

Essentially, the dry air you see surrounding Ivan is a result of the storm itself and nothing that should impact the strength of the storm. In the atmosphere, generally rising and sinking motion should approximately balance out over a large area. Inside Ivan, there is a large amount of rising air, creating the convection powering the storm. Only a small fraction of this rising motion is counterbalanced by sinking motion in the eye; the rest has to balanced out along the periphery of the storm, thus the resultant "moat" of dry air around the storm. This dry air is thus not a product of actual dry air that will be infused into the storm, but storm-"created" dry air that should have little impact on its intensity.

In the short term, Ivan should continue to move WNW - roughly 295 degrees - then gradually turn NW and NNW over the course of the next 24-36 hours. On this path, it will come very close to the extreme western tip of Cuba; if we thought Charley took the path of least resistance over the island, Ivan may well redefine that notion. Hurricane warnings should go up for the western part of the island in the very near future, as the storm should pass over or very near to the tip sometime late tomorrow.

Unfortunately, this will probably be when the storm is at its peak intensity again...but fortunately, this will probably be the last time it reaches that intensity. The outflow channel provided by the upper-low in the Atlantic is gradually weakening as Ivan moves westward and the low retreats; furthermore, interactions with Cuba and eyewall replacement cycles should put an end to further intensification sometime late tomorrow, followed by perhaps a *slight* increase in shear having an impact at later times.

From there, forward motion should gradually begin to increase. Right now, Ivan is currently rounding the base of the ridge and entering somewhat of a "col" region of very weak steering currents. The current forward motion -- speed-wise -- will likely continue for another day to day and a half before the system gets caught up in the midlatitude steering flow. The shortwave over the S. Central US has dug a bit further south than expected and has additional support on the way from the Pacific Northwest. A slight bit further push to the south and east with this system is likely; I don't anticipate it weakening to any large degree nor retreating before the storm gets there. With this in mind, I feel confident that the Biloxi area is as far west as the storm gets. It's not inconceivable that it goes further west, I just view it as extremely unlikely.

After passing near the tip of Cuba through the Yucutan channel, the storm should roughly parallel the 85°W line before turning NNE or even NE as it approaches the coast. On this path, the Panama City to Apalachicola area (and points from Apalachicola to St. Marks on the NE-SW oriented coast) are most likely to be affected. The NHC forecast path is a bit further west than my thinking here at landfall (though the landfall locations are similar, I think a more pronounced turn late in the Gulf is more likely), as are the majority of models. Landfall in about 3 to 3 and a half days -- late Wednesday most likely -- is what I anticipate somewhere in the Panama City-Apalachicola area. I'm trending towards the eastern side of that swath, with a forecast point early Thursday about 35 mi. west of Tallahassee, but that is subject to change. Remember, even 3-3.5 days out, track errors are subject to large biases.

Intensity is going to be the big question. We saw Bonnie not do much in this general region as it approached the coast, but the synoptic conditions were quite a bit different then - not to mention the intensity and size of the storm - than they are now. Shear should increase in the Gulf, yes, but not by much. Waters are still warm, as no storm has touched these waters to any large degree this season (note that Bonnie was moving 15-20mph throughout this area and took place almost a month ago). The storm will weaken before landfall, but by how much? As it approaches shore is the time when much of the weakening will take place, so it is not inconceiveable to see many worried folk in the Fl. Panhandle fretting over a 140-150mph hurricane approaching the coast, as with Opal. The storm should not make landfall at that intensity, however, thanks to increasing interaction with the trough as well as shallower waters (resulting in less overall energy for the storm); an intensity of 120-135mph, category 3/4, is more likely.

Again though, everyone from Biloxi east to Cedar Key should be paying close attention to this storm. I don't believe that this is one for the peninsula in any way, though don't be surprised to see tropical storm force conditions approach the shore as the storm moves northward. On the projected path, hurricane watches will likely be issued along the northern Gulf coast late tomorrow or early Tuesday, with hurricane warnings coming early-midday Tuesday. Tropical storm watches will likely be issued for areas to the east along the Fl. west coast, mostly as a precautionary device in case the wind field -- currently extending out ~175mi -- impacts the coast. But, in any case, people along the northern Gulf coast need to take heed of this one -- it's not pulling hard right between the Keys and Cuba and then hard north between the Bahamas and Florida and missing land, nor is it going to pull a Roxanne from 1995 and sit and spin and die in the Gulf.

Pressed for a landfall point into a mythical landfall pool, I would say a bit east of Mexico Beach (alternatively, a bit west of Cape San Blas) as a 125-130mph cat 3 storm around midnight Wednesday night/Thursday morning.

I'll try to add a bit more tomorrow and answer any questions I see, though it's going to be a rather busy day on my end.

So much for quickly summarizing things, though!!

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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TAZRACER
Registered User


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Re: Cudo's to FOX NEWS [Re: Terra]
      #26203 - Mon Sep 13 2004 02:49 AM

hard to say when and where! all we can do is watch

--------------------
Taz racer


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


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11 pm Probabilities... never seen this before [Re: LI Phil]
      #26204 - Mon Sep 13 2004 02:50 AM

Buras La = 14%
New Orleans = 13%
Gulfport = 13%
Mobile = 13%
Pensacola = 13%
Panama City = 13%
Apalachicola = 13%

thats quite a spread of equal probabilities....


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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru


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Re: 11 pm Probabilities... never seen this before [Re: Frank P]
      #26206 - Mon Sep 13 2004 02:58 AM

Looking at the 11pm forecast map and two things give me the 'heebie-jeebies'....

1)The left(west) side of the cone puts NoLa big time in play...God forbid that city would see a Cat V, which Ivan has regenerated to....

2) The inland track puts TS Ivan right over the Gold Dome in Downtown Atlanta, like we need more trees to collapse...

Also on cnn.com there's a story about different ways of fighting hurricanes,,,But big fans on the gulf coast...come now! Might as well get Ricky Williams with his ...ahem....herbage to sit on the coast ...lol

--------------------
You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!


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Kdubs
Weather Watcher


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Re: Cudo's to FOX NEWS [Re: TAZRACER]
      #26208 - Mon Sep 13 2004 03:00 AM

I just saw on Fox that the BAMM and AVN models show extreme easterly movement. One brings it as far east as Alachua county. It's worth checking out.

Also, the westerly wind shears should help to diminish the strength before landfall.

--------------------
South Orlando
God Bless
A B C D E F G H I J K L
Bold = Reached hurricane status
Italics = Impacted Florida


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TAZRACER
Registered User


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Re: 11 pm Probabilities... never seen this before [Re: Frank P]
      #26209 - Mon Sep 13 2004 03:00 AM

all about equal

--------------------
Taz racer


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: 11 pm Probabilities... never seen this before [Re: Frank P]
      #26210 - Mon Sep 13 2004 03:01 AM

They had a 10% spread across 3 to 5 cities earlier today.
Lot of red and black flags going up. Not to mention a lot of evacuees moving around. Folks, you might want to fuel up your vehicles tonight or early in the morning. Oh, and be sure to put the right fuel in them. TWC said people in FL were putting diesel in gasoline vehicles because there wasn't any gasoline. You won't get far like that. It ruins your engine too!


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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
NEW THREAD! [Re: danielw]
      #26212 - Mon Sep 13 2004 03:03 AM

NEW THREAD!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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dolphinscry
Registered User


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Re: 11 pm Probabilities... never seen this before [Re: Frank P]
      #26215 - Mon Sep 13 2004 03:10 AM

Hi again, I posted a few pages back, but got lost in the quick shuffling of the board!
Ive been reading and absorbing and Im confused as all get out!
But quite fascinated w/ all the theories.
(thanks!)
So, I am in Sumter co., waiting, to see if I should go buy that generator tomorrow morning......

--------------------
"If you can't be a good example,
then you'll just have to be a horrible warning." -Catherine Aird


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LI Phil
User


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Re: 11 pm Probabilities... never seen this before [Re: dolphinscry]
      #26216 - Mon Sep 13 2004 03:14 AM

No offense, but when it says "NEW THREAD" that's the signal that you need to check another thread...sorry.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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DroopGB31
Weather Guru


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Re: 11 pm Probabilities... never seen this before [Re: Frank P]
      #26217 - Mon Sep 13 2004 03:15 AM

Wow, new track doesnt look good for me and other fellow panhandler's. Hey Dani, Hows it goin in Indy? I lived there till I was 15 and moved down here 3 years ago. I love it up there. My profile says I live in Pensacola, technically I do, but really Im in Gulf Breeze which is a suburb. Folks here have already started to board up. WalMart and Lowes was packed today along with gas stations. As of this morning, there was no more plywood at Lowes. Got school tomorrow, but after Im going to help out my boss and board up his windows at the shop which is the most likely place I'll ride out the storm IF it comes here. Going to try and make reservations at a hotel in Pensacola and Im praying they arent full yet. Were doing all this though just to be safe, as there still is a possibilty it might miss us. Anyways Be on tomorrow evening. Should prove to be a busy day around here. Cheers

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CentralFlorida
Weather Watcher


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Loc: Port Richey FL
Re: 11 pm Probabilities... never seen this before [Re: DroopGB31]
      #26516 - Mon Sep 13 2004 07:44 PM

Is It just my imagination or do i finally see a due north movement in last sat image?

--------------------
Survived Charley, Jeanne, Frances, Ivan and my Wife


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