scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Hey phil,,,,how do you quote something on 1 thread to another? I explained the models into the forcasting.
Scott, block & copy...I'll do it for you before I crash...
Edited by LI Phil (Tue Sep 14 2004 03:24 AM)
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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OK,
Gotta hit the rack...can't miss anymore work...everyone BEHAVE!
As I go to sleep tonight, has it progged as a CAT IV in Mobile bay...where will they have it by the morning light?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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I can't see this doing anything but moving due north or even NE. At this time, I see it as a Florida landfall. What am I missing?
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 337
Loc:
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Being in central Fla, I'm gonna clear out of here and let you Gulf coasters make your plans.
Stay above the water line if you're in New Orleans !!
Phil, I think of course a western edge hit in New Orleans would be worse but I believe that if the storm is East of them, the North to South Winds would move the water from the Lake down toward New Orleans. I think it's bad in either case.
I'll be listening to WWL 870 on the am dial to see what the locals are saying tonight and tomorrow.
Stay safe everyone.....
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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As i posted many times the runs of the 18Z,,which are 2pm are used for the 11pm update here. The dont have the oz run which is 8pm to give out and when they do it will be at the 5am update. Also the Bamn models that you will see at 6z and 2am eastern will be run offs of the run tonight at 0Z. So movement tonight into tomorrow and 0z runs will be key.
This was from Scottsvb...I'm outta here!
Everyone be safe!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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BillD
User
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Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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A somewhat unusual comment in a recon "RECCO" obs, I guess they were asked to get a good fix on the center?
URNT11 KNHC 140225
97779 02254 30221 8560/ 30700 05104 1212/ /3814
RMK AF963 3209A OB 05
RADAR CENTER FIX 21.9N 85.1W, GOOD RADAR PRESENTATION, NAV ACCURAC
Y 0.1NM.
Bill
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Good post Spock. Bastardi, not usually a follower of the ETA, has had more confidence in the simplistic models than the suite (AVN, , etc.). He believes their right-bias is directly related to their inability to handoff heat from the tropics to the temperates. He mentioned the other day that the Accuweather international guy said the was the KING of South America because they don't have as many temperature variables there. Lemme go make a run and see if he's got a nightly update (he had previously called for a mouth of the river hit and a Camille track, but that was prior to the NNW jog). - No update from Joe. The mid atlantic model maps have been updated at 11:00. Models are really beginning to cluster on the MS coast. Be ready out there!
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
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Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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Hey guys, havent been able to post all day, I've been very busy. Tomorrow evacuations start around here, me and my bro are gonna help my boss board up his buisness in the morning. Were going to evacuate from Gulf Breeze and head to Pensacola and ride it out with my dads bosses family at his print-shop. We'll be way above see level so Im not worried bout surge, but winds are a different matter. I have had the weirdest feeling lately, Im excited, but also scared by all this. This will be a first for me for sure. My whole neighborhood is boarded up except us because were only renting right now and we arent responsible for the house but Im praying it holds up ok. Well Im off to get some sleep, tomorrows gonna be busy. Wishing everyone around the coast luck with this one. Cheers GOOD LUCK EVERYONE.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The east Gulf buoy, 242nm North of , reported 11.2ft waves, wind 25kts gusting to 29kts at 0250Z.
This is only the wave height. The storm surge will be in addition to this. I would say 10-20 feet surge on top of 11ft waves. That's 3 stories of a building!!
BTW-the wave ht was 9.8 ft an hour earlier. That's an increase of 1.4ft in an hour, at 200+ miles out!!
Edited by danielw (Tue Sep 14 2004 03:39 AM)
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
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Thank you, and I must say, after dealing with the LFM for years, the ETA looks great comparitively-but, it still has its problems. I remember a forecast I had to make up in NJ where the LFM called for 18 inches of snow, and the NGM nothing. Nothing won. The rule of thumb was to halve the . Now, the is the one with the gridscale feedback problem.
Having said all of that, I actually like the a lot, but I must acknowledge its recent difficulties, especially since its bias was usually the other way.
One last thing on the ETA-I think a couple of years ago, they made adjustments to the model to try to improve its forecasts. That may be so, but it still seems to have trouble with tropical systems.
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kelcot
Weather Guru
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Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
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HOLY CRAP! My inlaws have a place right on the gulf coast in PCB.
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Kelly
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Seele
Unregistered
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Anyone know why we haven't seen a vortex message in approaching 5 hours?
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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Bad news..the more you learn.
Hope it falls apart at the coast like that one last year (or the year before) that hit La.
It's been a CatV a long time now and over 24hours with *lightening* in the eye wall. Can't stay that intense for much
longer, one can only hope...
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meto
Weather Guru
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Posts: 140
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that is east of 1100 position.
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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GREAT question!!!!
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jth off
Unregistered
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Wow those models are starting to cluster. This looks like what happened for when the models all of a sudden came together and were pretty accurate. Also, I do alot of investigative interviews and have developed an ability to read body movements and mannerisms. Looking at Dr. lyons, he shows much more confidence now in where is going. I think they have a pretty good handle on this now. The question now becomes intensity. He also says that it may speed up and lessen the time allowed to weaken.
If I lived in the Gulport to Pensacola area, I would get the heck out of town...NOW.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1020 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2004
...PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SEVERAL PARISHES IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA HAVE ISSUED VOLUNTARY
EVACUATION ORDERS INCLUDING ORLEANS AND JEFFERSON. ST BERNARD HAS
ISSUED A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDER FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE
FEDERAL HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEE
...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
TIDES ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA. DUE TO THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE
IVAN...TIDES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.
EXTREME STORM SURGE VALUES OF 10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE
POSSIBLE IF S TRACK SHIFTS WEST TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI COAST
OR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA.
...WIND IMPACTS....
EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL CONTINUE OVER COASTAL
AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM WINDS...WINDS OF 40 MPH
OR HIGHER...WILL SPREAD INTO THE COASTAL AREA MID DAY WEDNESDAY...
THEN SPREAD INLAND. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE HURRICANE
IVAN...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY SPREAD INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI WEDNESDAY NIGHT
Edited by danielw (Tue Sep 14 2004 03:44 AM)
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Kdubs
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 44
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Being a native Floridian, I understand that storms, even severe weather is an everyday part of our locus here. I applaud the county for evacuating the Keys, but I am still uncertain whether lifting the evacuation notice was such a good idea yet. They have had torrential rain today and I've heard the traffic heading towards the islands is a nightmare. Also, according to the Sand Key data buoy, they are receiving sustained winds of 26kts (30mph) and gusts up to 31kts (35.6mph). Those are pretty strong winds to have multitudes commuting over wet bridges.
My thoughts and prayers are with everyone in the path. Please take all precautions necessary to preserve property and life.
Kyle
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South Orlando 
God Bless
A B C D E F G H I J K L
Bold = Reached hurricane status
Italics = Impacted Florida
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KornR
Registered User
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Posts: 8
Loc: High Springs, Fl.
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Wow.... this site is incredible!
I am just amazed at how much detail you ppl are into... I am learning so much. Please keep up the great discussions and I will sit quitely over here in the corner and try to learn something.
Thanks everyone.
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"Honey, was that the cat that just flew past the window?"
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USFTampa
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 10
Loc: Tampa, FL
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I must be missing something here- I just can't seem to understand why the forecasts are all west oriented right now. Perhaps I am mistaken, but from everything I have seen and heard, it just seems as though the storm could hit any little bump in the road and everything could change in an instant- much like the shift from Central Florida to the Panhandle. I just see a more easterly route before it is over with. Again, am I missing something from the satellite images or the current flows? Until is gone, my plywood stays up (I stayed at the Home Depot ALL night to get it, so I at least have to admire it for awhile).
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J-Roc
USF Climatology Grad Student
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