wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Geeze...all the globals look just too fast tonight...00z has just offshore south of Morgan City, LA at 48 hrs!!! (?????) ...then NORTH of NOLA at 60 hrs...
I see the eventual solution as slower...interesting...
Doesn't make sense to me what is triggering the acceleration.
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Jason Kelley
Edited by wxman007 (Tue Sep 14 2004 04:16 AM)
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/geographic.html
just in case someone doesn't have this...was looking for the surge model.
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kelcot
Weather Guru
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Loc: Canton, Ga
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I hope that when is done, we still have a beach house to go to.....
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Kelly
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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I've seen first hand the waves generated from Elena back in 1985 with her 100 mph plus wind.... the sound is relatively shallow, the waves at best as they crashed on the sea wall were maybe 5 feet tops... the wind blows so hard it just churns the sound into a froth of foam and chaos and pulverizes them.... now you will definitely see somewhat bigger waves with a Cat 4, but the largest waves will be in areas not protected by the barrier islands.... Georges had maybe 4 foot waves max in front of my house.... Ship Island, Dauphin Island, Pensacola, PC will all have those massive waves Daniel was referring to but you will not see that size wave in the MS Sound off the coast of Biloxi, at I have never see waves that big in my experience.... water is just to shallow to support them... hope I' right on this one....
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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I'm not seeing a due north movement, but I'm not seeing a NW movement either. I think its more like NNW. Especially the last loop.
I noticed tonight at football practice that you could see the higher cirrus clouds from . A little eerie considering how far away he is.
Here's my hope: I hope that wherever this monster goes, that by the time it gets there, shear has increased and the intensity has gone down. Having gone through two of these storms already...which are in no way comparative to ...a Cat 1 passing through you're area is no picnic. They may be closing the window on landfall which is good for those in the direct path of this monster, since they will be able to prepare and get out. Having seen the devastation that and caused, I wish I could wishcast this thing into Mexico so no one I know here or their families would be in danger. Once you've been through a couple, you realize it is no game anymore. My heartfelt prayers and thoughts go out to those who are in the path.
I'm going to bed now...for the last two nights, I've dreamt that I heard the track had shifted to the right, only to find out it was a dream. If I dream this one more time, I'm going to start taking horse tranquilizers until Christmas. If I dream tonight that the track shifted more to the left, well.............
Nite all....
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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jth off
Unregistered
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That accellerations scares me a bit. it wouldn't have mch time to weaken before landfall, and would go far inland as a very strong hurricane. That could cause massive devastation.
Something no one is mentioning is the fact that the north central gulf states have tons of trees. the power outages could be unimaginable. If I remeber correctly, it wasn't weeks without power for Frederick, it was well over a month for some.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Jason I dont think the is responding well to the ridge over Texas and the western gulf.....I mean if it is that far west the ridge might have more of a influence on and slow him some. I think the will be OOS with this run, but plauseable. Only thing I can think of is the trough hanging back awhile longer over the northern gulf steering the system up faster. I think the models will slowly adjust east but not much unless something odd happens.
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USFTampa
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Tampa, FL
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I am confused as well. I don't understand the projected path. Correct me if I am wrong, but if doesn't move through the gulf as fast as they saw it will, won't it make landfall at a more southeastly location? Furthermore, why does it appear as though nothing is going to affect as he moves through the gulf?
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J-Roc
USF Climatology Grad Student
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jth off
Unregistered
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ScottsVb,
How far east would you project the landfall. I am having my doubts about anything east of Ft Walton abd anything west of NO. What is you best estimate as of now.
If the models do shift east a little, would the shift east, or would that just bring the models into agreement with the current forecast.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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My landfall forcast is still the same. Biloxi-Mobile. I wouldnt be surprised if anything happens from a hard right turn to St Marks.
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mud1967
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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Jason,
My parents want me to leave Tallahassee tomorrow. But if it does go as west as they are saying right now won't I be fine with just TS winds?
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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Tampa Area
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The met on the ABC affiliate here (can't remember his name, wears suspenders) just said that because the shifted the 11pm west, this means they are "very confident with the forecast track" and basically told us we were completely out of the woods. He said all we have to worry about this week is normal afternoon thunderstorms. He went on to say was pretty much out of time to make the northeast turn to affect us. Seems a tad premature to me. Definitely don't want it here, but I don't see how a met can say it definitely won't affect us either.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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I really, really hate to go against a tight clustering of models by many miles, but I think I'm going to have to once again. I would like to note that the models, as a whole, have been performing poorly with . forecast errors at 5 days are on the order of 335 miles; most models are even higher. Even the Superensemble is at 250 miles. Three day errors are nothing to write home about either. But, all in all, that's not a justification for going against the models.
However, it does appear that has made the turn to the north-northwest...and I don't think there's any turning back now. Looking at water vapor imagery, that shortwave trough over the SE United States is only slowly progressing to the east. It's also not done digging, as evidenced by the surge of dry air into the northern Gulf south of New Orleans. Furthermore, back over Texas, the ridge continues to build...enhanced to a *small* degree by Hurricane Javier. The crest of the ridge extends into southern Oklahoma and continues to rise northward, partially in response to the Pacific NW trough moving eastward and pumping up the ridge. This, in turn, is impacting the shortwave over the SE US, causing it to slide further south than models or observations have predicted.
Enhancing this notion is the elongation N-S of the cloud pattern and moisture field associated with . Once storms start to elongate in this fashion, the turn is either imminent or taking place. The motion of recently, despite some wobbles, has been just slightly west of north-northwest. With the digging trough, I believe a large westward component of motion is over and the storm should gradually begin to turn to the NNE by landfall. If this storm gets west of 86-86.5°W...well, I just can't see that happening right now, but am willing to be proven wrong. The eastern ridge is eroding and the storm is gradually turning. Also note that there is a weak shortwave rounding the west side of the trough in the SE US; as of 12a, it is located NW of Memphis, TN. If anything, this will both serve to slow the forward movement of the trough and cause it to dive just a bit further south.
Truthfully, I don't see any reason to significantly change my landfall forecast from yesterday. I will nudge it a tad westward to Panama City Beach -- sorry Jason -- but leave the window the same, if not narrow it to the AL/FL line to Apalachicola. This excludes the track and while I am quite reluctant to do so, I'm just not buying in to what the models are selling.
Before even going into the intensity forecast then, I do want to reiterate that the and its forecasters are the professionals. Always take their word in a time of extreme emergency, as this is shaping up to be. But, they issued hurricane watches for a large area tonight because they are not certain where this is going. Everyone from NO to St. Marks needs to watch this storm...any slight deviation will result in a significant change in landfall location.
Intensity -- well, despite less than stellar satellite appearances, 's intensity has remained way up there. Pressure fell down to 910mb earlier in the day, while the height of the 700mb surface fellow below 2300m. That's low, folks. As the storm begins to move north, outflow on the NE side will become enhanced but the western side of the storm will begin to erode to a small degree. It won't be enough to spare the coastline a major hurricane, but it should knock the intensity down some. While surface waters are largely untouched and are very warm over the east central Gulf, the depth of the warm water is not particularly high except over parts of the north central Gulf, where there is a warm eddy. The storm should maintain its current intensity up to the next eyewall replacement cycle, followed by gradual weakening with a slight increase in relative shear and slightly less energy off of the Gulf waters. Near coast, the weakening trend may well subside due to the warm eddy. I think we are looking at a mid-cat 3 storm at landfall, somewhere around 110kt. Anywhere from a borderline 2/3 to a borderline 3/4, maybe even low 4, is fair game at this time however.
Preparations should be rushed to completion along the northern Gulf, as things are about to get crazy in these parts...if they haven't already.
I hope no news agency is being definitive with this storm, nor are they hyping it up. Unfortunately, many probably are. This is a very dangerous storm, but it is not going to xxxx area just because you want it to. Be safe, take the necessary precautions, and remember that this storm is as unpredictable as they come. While I feel somewhat confident in my analysis, it's not enough to exclude any part of the Gulf coast.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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I saw that Tena,,,hes good but is trying to get off the hype he did at 6pm. Thing is,,he could be right at 6pm since he didnt see the newest models are showing a more east shift coming up for the 5am update. So this time (like they should) he went with the forcast.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Loc:
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mud1967 -- if you are in a low-lying area of Tallahassee, it might be best to leave. Even if the winds don't get high here, rainfall amounts could be locally high. While the airport has not received a lot of rain, most other parts of town have: tonight's storm with a bit of flooding neqar my place showed that to be the case, while many rivers and creeks to the east are above flood stage.
Plus, the Tallahassee power grid is very susceptible to gusty winds and long durations of sustained winds above 20mph. Power lines, many of which are around numerous trees, may well be affected by this storm -- even with 25mph winds, as with . If the winds are even higher, then the impacts will be even greater.
Strongly consider leaving, particularly if you live in a low-lying or tree-canopied area, even if the storm does make landfall near Pensacola/Mobile. Better to play it safe than sorry with these storms.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Great Post there Clark. I been posting the same thing on the boards too. You still in school or you graduate?
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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IVAN just wobbled due north, I doubt it would stay that way though.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Loc:
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The center of clipped the west coast of Cuba, technically going inland for a period of time this evening. When the storm is over land, they cannot drop dropsondes into its center because, well, people live on land. Plus, the instruments aren't very useful if they crash into the countryside...and I wouldn't be shocked if the Cuban government doesn't allow them full access to their capabilities while in Cuban airspace, either.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Graduate student in meteorology.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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You plan on getting into the broadcasting field? Or work at the NWS?
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