Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Loc:
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Droop, when you get time, please write up a detailed post on what it was like for you.
I can only imagine.
Keep us advised on what it is like up there as things continue.
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Storm Cooper
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Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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Great to hear you and yours are OK 
Coop
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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FreakedInFlorida
Verified CFHC User
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First off, I am not a weather person and I don't play one on TV, though I did consider staying at a Holiday Inn Express during . I recently found out about this board from some discussion on other sites about , and have found it very educational and helpful and I thank the members of this system for that.
I agree with you Rich. Having worked in the media, I have to wonder if Accuweather's forecast is not based a bit on what will sell more subscriptions/hits/ads. The more danger something is perceived to be in, the more people will go and view it to see if it perhaps has changed or not. I did notice that today, the forecast did seem to be 45 miles higher than before. Still, since day 1, it's been a Florida storm. I'm not saying JB isn't right. He may very well be. What I am concerned with is that if the track models and are all over the map, how can he be so certain? I don't subscribe to his service, so maybe he justifies that position in the subscription area, but to the general public, it appears that he is just making a path up. A path that benefits Accuweather in terms of visitors/watchers then one that reflects the uncertainty of the guidance.
We are weather worn here in Florida and the thought of another hurricane cutting into the coast at Cat 2 is just plain scary. But if it happens, it happens, but I would hope that the tracks shown reflect the best science we have and not just what's beneficial to the packager.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Well recon alittle while ago shows that it is indeed the low level swirl. I would expect this to be a TD by 5pm with the convection off to the E. Right now its hard to say what will happen. First off let me say Im not throughing out what I said could happen in earlier post. Anyways Hispaniola hurt Jeanne, but the shear killed her.
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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I agree - if Jeanne comes to Florida, whether through the straits or through Central Fl, she comes. All that is certain about this storm is its uncertainty. We must just be on guard for any moment's notice ! What a trip!
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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AdmittedHacker
Unregistered
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The new low level swirl already shows good circulation but it is obviously in its infantile stage. If it maintains is present WSW heading it will be over Cuba late this afternoon. Any westward or even WNW heading after that will keep it over Cuba for some time.
Will landfall and topography have a decent chance of finishing off Jeanne...?
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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I think it is possible that this may dissipate over Cuba, and it may do it later tonight or tomorrow
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richisurfs
Weather Guru
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Loc: Indialantic,Florida
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can anyone tell me how often the models are run? I mean, I look at the computer models on weatherunderground and they show ran at 8pm last night, the GDFL, UKMET, ran at 8am this morning., and the BAMM ran at 2pm this afternoon. While they all seem to being doing loops in the end, they all seem to be in general agreement with the direction. I just wondered because that general direction is away from the US.until they start looping.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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So Jeanne just gave birth to another system, wow that's very rare. The shear must have sheared the storm into two and the later one being the stronger is going to develop into a TD. I didn't even see that turn to Cuba, that hit me off guard, hopefully the other part of Jeanne will die.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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what is the other part that is developing?
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Just to the East of the former cloud mass Jeanne, lies convection that has lingered over Puerto Rico for days now. Remeber that intense tail that we saw from Jeanne when it was a hurricane, well that's the area that we should watch for some development.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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that swirl is NOT new. It is Jeanne. To the east is the mid level circulation.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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It's not, then it's really disorganized. I don't think it should even be called a tropical depression though...
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Droop
Unregistered
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Good to hear from ya'll. Basically the waves picked up during the day and we sat and waited for to hit, not expecting a direct hit. things werent to bad but by about 5pm weds. they started getting worse. thats about the time ppl started loosing power. luckily we didnt loose it till 10pm and by that time the winds were really gusty. by 11 you could hear a faint roar coming and about 30 minutes later the winds were roaring. there were transformers exploding all around by 12. From 12-3 I think is when things were the worse. we have a steel double door in the front of the place that we had to tie shut with rope and we tied it to a skid of paper. by this time i was scared becasue i could hear things flying and hitting the building but after 1 you couldnt hear anything else but the wind. it was a non stop high pitch roar. it was like that till about 3 or 4am. things slowly started to calm down. when the first light came up i cut the rope and stepped outside and nearly fainted. i couldnt believe how bad it was. trees, lights,signs and other things that were there wednsday werent there. we had a huge oak tree up-rooted and dragged by the wind about 10 feet. all the street poles were snapped and there was just a ton of garbage everywhere, shingles, broken signs. even a icebox from a gas station across the street was in our parking lot. there was a huge steel billboard that had been completely bent to the ground. ithe building we stayed in had only alittle roofing gone and siding blown off. we were lucky. we stayed in the central room all night till the roof was fluttering so we went to a hallway till morning. well, i'd be more in-depth but i got tons to do, so i'll post more later. cheers
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Afternoon all...
Went to bed at 11 or so last night and slept till 1:30 today. Man did I need that...how I slept through 's tropical downpours and winds this am is beyond me but I don't care.
Haven't checked any of the models or read JB...just your posts...this Accuweather vs. the and other media bashing is getting out of hand...it's like sides are being taken, lines are being drawn in the sand and it's not good or healthy right now. Most of you have been through hell and those who haven't are lucky. The last thing we need on this board is fighting over whether JBs forecast will verify 6 days down the road. I subscribe to accuwx but I think they're wrong with Jeanne but they may be right and only time will tell...it's as simple as that!
People are going to be in therapy after this season with post traumatic stress disorder! Many who have taken the time to post here don't even have homes to go to or if they do, they can't get to them...save your energy for helping them!!!
Still haven't heard from rickonboat...anyone care about him???
JK and Coop had a twister almost land on their heads DURING a CAT III!
Countless others probably fared even worse!!!
I've been letting everything through with very few exceptions but I'm getting a little tired of what has gone on since yesterday with the personal attacks.
Back to the weather for a moment...
I'm not even going to attempt to predict Jeanne...I'm getting ajida (sp) just thinking about her.
Ivan...his remains blew thru here early this morning...tremendous lightning and winds (considering he's a remnant low) easily gusts to 50 mph...Very windy still...I live on the first floor of a condo and the winds ripped a section from the third floor partially off (I have no idea what material it is...the building was built in the 50's and is primarily concrete, but this is some strange material), and it is now banging into my bedroom window...maybe I'll take a photo for upload later. Lots of limbs down, yadayadayada...
But that's not what I noticed most...popped on and the strangest thing I ever saw...this puppy was chugging ne and all of a sudden a piece split off over jersey and started heading south...maybe that piece of energy can do what was predicted and reform and head south...who knows with this system...
A'ight [tm HF], sorry for the rambling, but we all need to support each other not argue over the networks and the models!
PEACE!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Droop
Unregistered
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By the way, the reason we tied the doors shut was becasue the wind had already sicked it open a few times around 10 when the conditons were just getting bad.
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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So this derivative of Jeanne to the east can develop into a TD later? Do you suppose it is this 'piece' or subpart' that Accuweather states that will head north than get caught in the high that will take it to Florida? I mean Accuweather continues to show Jeanne cutting across Florida; I am not sure of that occuringl. But if that mass due east of Jeanne were to develop than it would become daughter of Jeanne, Lisa if it evolves to TS status . What a season. Crazy. :?:
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Good to hear from you, you slept through prob the worst thunderstorm on LI history.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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"But that's not what I noticed most...popped on and the strangest thing I ever saw...this puppy was chugging ne and all of a sudden a piece split off over jersey and started heading south...maybe that piece of energy can do what was predicted and reform and head south...who knows with this system..."
Yeah, there have been a couple of places and folks calling this split. JB has been on this piece dropping down and back to the Gulf. Not sure that will happen; but my luck at figuring out what has been going on the last few days is about as good as me hitting all six numbers in the Florida Lottery.
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Jim
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Since it looks like Jeanne has done a full ejection of the prior LLC. I can not see what popped out being viable very long. Does it look like a chance what was left behind around 21N 71W spins up and organizes. There seems to be a hint of circulation trying to get going. Not sure if there is anything at the lower levels; but itt does appear to be an area that would be in better shape if it does spin up.
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Jim
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