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#93L now a small better defined circulation with deep convection set to come ashore N of Tampico, MX. Recon investigating. Still 40% odds.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 298 (Idalia) , Major: 298 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 298 (Idalia) Major: 298 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Wxwatcher2
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Re: question on jeanne's current movement and strength [Re: Fletch]
      #29411 - Sun Sep 19 2004 10:54 PM

I think we in Florida can all rest easy tonight. Jeanne is looking more and more to be a problem only to the fishes.
This little ghost of Ivan is just a bit of a breeze. We can always use a breeze.


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Fletch
Weather Guru


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Re: i have a problem [Re: Unregistered User]
      #29412 - Sun Sep 19 2004 10:56 PM

Quote:

with any forecast that says in the forecast that it has low confidence in itself

take two aspirin, two hours of therapy and get back to me when there is more confidence in the forecast

and twisters could develop, albeit small ones probably from an unstable environment... bad storm history these remnants have

re: wired marvin lewis... can we change coaches?




The Dolphins are playing like Jeanne. Spinning out in the open, being annoying and going nowhere fast. I think old Dave has the same outlook as the NHC. We really aren't confident in what we are saying.

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


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recmod
Weather Guru


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Ivan's Ghost [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #29413 - Sun Sep 19 2004 10:57 PM

Ivan's ghost is getting ready to make itself felt here in Florida. Look at this latest discussion from the Melbourne Weather Service:

STRONG WIND GUSTS TO BUFFET VOLUSIA/BREVARD COASTLINE OVERNIGHT...

...NARROW BAND OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG COAST TOWARD MORNING...

H5 VORT MAX AND ASSOC WEAK SFC REFLECTION (REMNANTS OF TC Ivan)
CURRENTLY ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF FLORIDA...WILL PUSH SW AROUND
LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND WEAK SFC LOW IS PRODUCING A
SURGE OF STRONG N/NE WINDS SPREADING S/SW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD
COASTS LIKELY REPRESENTS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS WIND SURGE. WIND
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE (40 MPH) WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF FT PIERCE INLET AND RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...ESP
VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES.

ANOTHER CONCERN IS A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD DEVELOP
ALONG THE SE EDGE OF THIS WIND SURGE. A NARROW SWATH OF 2-3 INCHES
STRETCHING NE-SW COULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT/MON MORNING BETWEEN COCOA
BEACH AND FORT PIERCE.


--Lou


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bobbi
Unregistered




fletch.........on the contrary [Re: Fletch]
      #29414 - Sun Sep 19 2004 11:26 PM

i have much more confidence in NHC than fins coaching staff right now.

then again am luahing so hard from game and jeanne and discussion out of miami on incarnation of Ivan and possible severe weather i think i may wake up tomorrow and find out its 1996 and this was all a dream like in dallas except with any luck im married to vinnie lol


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scottsvb
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Re: fletch.........on the contrary [Re: bobbi]
      #29415 - Sun Sep 19 2004 11:28 PM

Time to start to watch the models to see if they want to converge on a solution with Jeanne. Tonights OZ run, Monday 12Z and tomorrow nights 0Z runs should converge. East? Stall? West>? My forcaste stays the same.
I will post more later on ideas though.


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scottsvb
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Re: fletch.........on the contrary [Re: scottsvb]
      #29416 - Sun Sep 19 2004 11:31 PM

OK well ETA is out and although its a run off of the GFS and not a good model togo by, it doesnt pull Jeanne off to the ENE like in the last many runs. Now it keeps her just east of the bahamas and then loses her. Basically it doesnt have a good handle on her. For now I will disregard this model on this run. Still its interesting it doesnt pull her out to sea.

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Storm Cooper
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Re: fletch.........on the contrary [Re: scottsvb]
      #29417 - Sun Sep 19 2004 11:34 PM

Yo svb.... give me your opinion of the ECMWF. I know it has been its share of "off" lately but would like you to weigh in on that one for me.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


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Re: fletch.........on the contrary [Re: scottsvb]
      #29418 - Sun Sep 19 2004 11:37 PM

I still feel Jeanne will end up northeast. TD13 bugs me if she soon to be Lisa keeps that new track, look out FL to NC and maybe GOM.

Dave


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bobbi
Unregistered




miami discussion on ivan's remnants [Re: scottsvb]
      #29419 - Sun Sep 19 2004 11:40 PM


SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
840 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004

FINAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OF THE EVENING HAS MOVED SOUTH THROUGH MOST
OF THE PENINSULA WITH NO OTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

AT 00Z VORT MAX...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF Ivan...IS MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 23 KNOTS OFF OF THE FLORIDA NE COAST NEAR 29.5N 77.5W.
EXTRAPOLATING THIS MOTION...IT WILL MOVE ASHORE NEAR FORT
PIERCE-VERO BEACH TOMORROW MORNING AROUND 12Z AND MOVE INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.

BESIDES FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS...ENOUGH
HELICITY IS PROBABLY AVAILABLE TO CAUSE FUNNEL CLOUDS TOMORROW
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.
SEABREEZE AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE RESULTING IN BEST THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE OVER WESTERN MIAMI-DADE AT THE MOMENT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
EVER SO SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE EVERGLADES OF DADE AND MONROE COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT.

SHOULD SEE BEGINNING OF INCREASINGLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA AS A CHUNK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEATHER
DISTURBANCE FORMERLY KNOWN AS Ivan REACHES FLORIDA. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS LARGE AREA OF STRATO-CU SURGING SOUTHWESTWARD. THE
LAST 2 DAYS WORTH OF GFS MODEL RUNS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWED THIS
FEATURE ARRIVING IN SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY. LATEST INCARNATION
INCLUDES WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
FRONT WHICH WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA TOMORROW. DECIDED TO INCREASE
POPS TO 40 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE EAST COAST TOMORROW (EMPHASIZING
BEST CHANCES AT THE COAST AND NEARER TO PALM BEACH).

AFTER THAT THE NORTHEAST WIND REGIME SETTLES IN FOR THE LONG
HAUL...WHICH WILL BE MORE OF A MARINE/BEACH ISSUE (SEE BELOW).
&&


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recmod
Weather Guru


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Jeanne Death Toll Rises [Re: bobbi]
      #29420 - Sun Sep 19 2004 11:45 PM

The Associated Press is now reporting that Jeanne killed at least 90 people in Haiti...with the death toll expected to rise
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6004150/

--Lou


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bobbi
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne Death Toll Rises [Re: recmod]
      #29421 - Sun Sep 19 2004 11:46 PM

thanks for that bad news... something to think on... imagine it will rise

since the beginning of the season with the TD that wasnt... high loss of life for hispanola this year...

on another note... can we call Ivan a derecho shadow maybe??

http://www.srh.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kmlb.shtml


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scottsvb
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Re: miami discussion on ivan's remnants [Re: bobbi]
      #29422 - Sun Sep 19 2004 11:46 PM

well storm, Ill give it the intensity correct but the position is off, I still feel it will come very close to florida (if not across) by Thurs night or Friday. Although since that is 5-6 days away it might get soo close then slide N hugging 50 miles out. Thing is on jeanne is currently how far north she gets. Then does she pass 70W to the east? Then will she start her sw-wsw track on Tuesday or Tuesday night. Her turn to the NW then N wont happen till Thursday. So by Friday if she is still east of 80W then she will go north. But she might be over land or even just off the west coast of Florida by Friday. So basically Im saying the model is just off on location.

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scottsvb
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Re: miami discussion on ivan's remnants [Re: scottsvb]
      #29424 - Sun Sep 19 2004 11:51 PM

GFS wants to still take Jeanne out to sea....Still could happen but I want to see it do it.

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Storm Cooper
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Re: miami discussion on ivan's remnants [Re: scottsvb]
      #29425 - Sun Sep 19 2004 11:57 PM

Thanks, wanted your input! We will see I guess.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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bobbi
Unregistered




Re: miami discussion on ivan's remnants [Re: scottsvb]
      #29426 - Sun Sep 19 2004 11:58 PM

dont look at the ukmet

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Storm Cooper
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Re: miami discussion on ivan's remnants [Re: bobbi]
      #29428 - Mon Sep 20 2004 12:15 AM

One thing I can assure, the dry air has arrived here in NW FL and it feels great. The points to the west and south without power will really luck out with this shot of cool air.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1

Edited by Storm Cooper (Mon Sep 20 2004 12:29 AM)


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scottsvb
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Re: miami discussion on ivan's remnants [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #29429 - Mon Sep 20 2004 12:24 AM

Its actually not bad here in tampa....dry air,,,makes it feel nice with the breeze.

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Storm Cooper
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Re: miami discussion on ivan's remnants [Re: scottsvb]
      #29432 - Mon Sep 20 2004 12:37 AM

We can move over now thanks to Ed, new thread.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Spazz
Unregistered




Re: notes from Norcross on past friday in quotes [Re: LoisCane]
      #29469 - Tue Sep 21 2004 12:45 PM

Some chicadeez are 2 much in luv with themselves........

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