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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: The Basin Stays Busy [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #29454 - Tue Sep 21 2004 01:36 PM

Hey all, I'm back, lots to catch up on, but I am fixing some of the things that broke while I was gone, and the new hardware should be in later this week.

More to come, but will be slow for a bit.


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rickonboat
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survived because of a one degree dogleg right at the last minute...whew! [Re: Rasvar]
      #29455 - Tue Sep 21 2004 01:59 PM

The destruction in Mobile is more a nuisance than anything. My boat completely survived, but the Marina sustained some moderate damage to the roof, and had about 4 huge trees fall over. Amazing that at around 2:00 AM, we figured we were toast, and it dogged right and hit Gulf Shores. Destruction there and in Pensacola was phenomenal. Probably as close to cat 4 type destruction as you can get, without calling it a cat 4 cane.

We are still without power, probably still more than half of the city. Pensacola is another story, as is Gulf Shores, and all the coast along that area. Lots of condos, the older ones...are toast. and some new ones are leaning, and will be condemned. With all the damage, the resolve is to build back better and stronger. Which means, inevitably, there will only be huge towering conrete edifices all along the coast. The quaint single residence just can't survive the long haul....


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Steve
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Re: survived because of a one degree dogleg right at the last minute...whew! [Re: rickonboat]
      #29456 - Tue Sep 21 2004 02:06 PM

Glad you made it through ok rick.
------------------------------------------
Clark, JB said the last 3 FSU superensemble runs bring Jeanne into the Gulf. I don't buy the scenario (don't think he does either). But out of curiosity, how far west does it bring her?

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Frank P
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Re: survived because of a one degree dogleg right at the last minute...whew! [Re: rickonboat]
      #29457 - Tue Sep 21 2004 02:22 PM

Rick, welcome back, I agree with your assessment as well, and I would also point out that Ivan brought with him at least a Cat 4 storm surge... the surge and waves were incredible... and did trememdous damage... reminds me somewhat of the damage associated with Camille's surge.... Ivan just didn't cause the wind damage that Camille had, but its surge was very impressive to say the least

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GuppieGrouper
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Re: survived because of a one degree dogleg right at the last minute...whew! [Re: Frank P]
      #29458 - Tue Sep 21 2004 02:37 PM

I think that estimates of storm damage will have to change according to the surface areas and angles which may change the classifications of storm intensities down the line. Estimating effects on land masses according to old standards of measurements do not seem to tell the tale anymore. I noticed this year that no matter what the level of the hurricane has been declared, the damage seemed to imply a higher classification. I don't know if this is the conservatism of the officials or if it is the interaction with the storm and the land structures that are causing this. I have yet to hear that " there was not that much damage" compared to the storm classification. It has been the other way around continuously. Not a conspiracy suggestion, a weather phenomenon I am questioning.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Kent
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Re: survived because of a one degree dogleg right at the last minute...whew! [Re: Steve]
      #29459 - Tue Sep 21 2004 02:50 PM

Southeast coast is back in "cone" for Jeanne... although to my untrained eye it looks like one big circle to me.

Thoughts anyone?


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leetdan
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Re: survived because of a one degree dogleg right at the last minute...whew! [Re: rickonboat]
      #29460 - Tue Sep 21 2004 03:25 PM

Great to hear... Sorry to lean offtopic, but might I ask, what direction was that marina exposed to in relation to the wind? And did you secure your boat in a marina slip, or did you anchor out?

I ask because my family runs a marina north of Palm Beach, and we lost use of all 3 docks from moored boats in the area getting blown in (otherwise there was only a foot or two of surge, no structural wind damage). All the boats usually at our marina were taken to safe harbor, but five sail and power boats were blown in and sunk around (under and on top of) our docks. Only one boat in the nearby (unregulated) anchorage stayed secure, even some boats with 6 or more anchor lines broke free (they estimate 150 moored boats in the immediate area are aground or sunken). Most in other marina slips left, but those that remained took heavy damage or sank in the slips, or in some cases had the docks disintegrate around them leaving the boat moored to pilings surrounded by water.

We're on the east side of the ICW, so we were constantly exposed to the west wind as the storm passed north of us. How'd you fare in relation?

--------------------
[witty phrase here]


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Storm Cooper
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Re: survived because of a one degree dogleg right at the last minute...whew! [Re: rickonboat]
      #29461 - Tue Sep 21 2004 03:33 PM

Yo rick(still)onboat.... glad to hear you came out of that OK.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


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Question for Mike or John C... [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #29462 - Tue Sep 21 2004 03:36 PM

I was gonna drop a ten or fifteen spot donation, but I couldn't find the link to a paypal payment option. Do you have one or do you guys just want checks?

Thanks,

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Question for Mike or John C... [Re: Steve]
      #29463 - Tue Sep 21 2004 04:12 PM

It's at the bottom of the main page now, not emphasizing it as much but will still be there. I did get the new hardware today, but it probably won't be until the weekend til I get time to set it up... It's nice.

Thanks all. Once that is up the thankyou page will go up as well.


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June from Port Orange
Registered User


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Re: Joe's Daily Column is free today [Re: Steve]
      #29464 - Tue Sep 21 2004 04:12 PM

Interesting reading...and it's free

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leetdan
Weather Guru


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Re: Joe's Daily Column is free today [Re: June from Port Orange]
      #29465 - Tue Sep 21 2004 04:14 PM

How do you get to it? THe only one I saw was archived from last year.

--------------------
[witty phrase here]


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: survived because of a one degree dogleg right at the last minute...whew! [Re: Steve]
      #29466 - Tue Sep 21 2004 04:19 PM

The Superensemble doesn't take the storm into the Gulf. For one, it doesn't go out that far -- it only goes as far as they run it and no more -- which is usually 5 days. The last few runs I saw were much like the other models...confused, lacking definitive movement any which way.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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CarolinaGurl
Weather Watcher


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Re: Joe's Daily Column is free today [Re: leetdan]
      #29468 - Tue Sep 21 2004 04:28 PM

go here for the free column of JB today only Joe's Free Column

--------------------
My Storms - Hugo, Bertha, Bonnie, Fran, Dennis, Floyd, Ophelia, Ernesto, Irene. Arthur


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leetdan
Weather Guru


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Re: Joe's Daily Column is free today [Re: CarolinaGurl]
      #29470 - Tue Sep 21 2004 04:55 PM

Cool stuff. Not really worth $.50 a day to me yet, and I still disagree with Accuweather's stance on the NHC, but I quite like it.

--------------------
[witty phrase here]


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Terry Johnson
Verified CFHC User


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Re: Joe's Daily Column is free today [Re: CarolinaGurl]
      #29471 - Tue Sep 21 2004 04:58 PM

In Joe's discussion, suppose the low pressure area that is the remnant of Ivan were to develop as it moves westward and becomes a tropical depression, storm, what would its name be?? Anyone?

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tpratch
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Re: Joe's Daily Column is free today [Re: Terry Johnson]
      #29472 - Tue Sep 21 2004 05:00 PM

Either Ivan or Matthew

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DMFischer
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Re: The Basin Stays Busy [Re: MikeC]
      #29473 - Tue Sep 21 2004 05:02 PM

Welcome Back Mike. We missed you for sure!

--------------------
Survived: Mitch '98-Charley's crossing'04-Frances '04-Jeanne'04 Survived near fatal fear from Floyd's threat.
Nearly grew gills with Fay'08


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BeachBum
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Re: The ghost of Ivan continues [Re: Rasvar]
      #29474 - Tue Sep 21 2004 05:04 PM

Quote:

Only thing I do know is that I heard in a phone interview that the NHC said if the remnants of Ivan become a system, it would be renamed becuase it is not the full system that was Ivan.



It also would not be a completely new system. I think ignoring Ivan in the name would be a mistake. Why not Ivan2 or Ivanov/Ivanova?

--------------------
From Brevard's Barrier Island
28°08'56"N; 80°35'11"W


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Domino
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Ivan's Return [Re: CarolinaGurl]
      #29475 - Tue Sep 21 2004 05:04 PM

Been looking over things just west of Florida this morning and it appears Ivan is making an attempt at a comeback. Looks like it is making an attempt at a LLC at around 25.72N 83.88W. Convection is also starting to crank up a bit. So...any thoughts on TD Ivan in 24 hours or so?

*note: I am as amature as they come and I'm just enjoying a moment of looking at something else while we have 3 real storms to watch.


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