Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
For those who don't make it back to the start of this thread:
Full size available at the start of this thread or at www.skeetobite.com/weather
No sense making a track map as Jeanne looks committed to the current path. Street level windfield maps tomorrow at 11am.
Skeet...the *only* significant piece of info missing from your 'fix points' on your map is the TIME forecast to be at these points. Could'ja?
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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RevUp
Weather Guru
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Loc:
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I'm sure many are taking more of a wait and see approach. There will be many more making the decision to leave on Saturday. Part of me says I really can't blame them, but if you decide to live on the barrier islands, you've got to expect stuff like this. People have become very spoiled.
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Quote:
Local tv just talked to a man on Abaco Island. He is already reporting 60-70 mph winds and the storm isn't even close yet.
 Local reporters on the barrier islands of Martin, St. Lucie, and Indian River counties are finding that many, many people are NOT leaving. Their reasoning is that authorities didn't let them back home soon enough after so they are staying this time. This is NOT good.
WOW...that report from Abaco really exhibits just how broad the windfield of Jeanne is! And we're still seeing expansion...
As for the barrier island residents of those three counties...HAVE THEY LOST THEIR MINDS??? We're looking at a potential for 125-130 mph wind gusts tomorrow...staying on a barrier islands....oh and the storm surge? Staying=putting your life in danger.
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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She's looking like she is building some good convection to the Southeast of her eye now.
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
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Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Quote:
Quote:
For those who don't make it back to the start of this thread:
Full size available at the start of this thread or at www.skeetobite.com/weather
No sense making a track map as Jeanne looks committed to the current path. Street level windfield maps tomorrow at 11am.
Skeet...the *only* significant piece of info missing from your 'fix points' on your map is the TIME forecast to be at these points. Could'ja?
Huh? It's the red text next to the coordinates.
Also had a request for more florida and less water. The only way to provide a useful (readable) close up image is to crop at 600x600. For those who are interested, here is a link to the current raw base map(1276x623): www.skeetobite.com/weather/maps/image_map.gif
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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00Z is comming in.. Looks similar to the 18Z. Looks like it has it comming in around Ft Pierce then up through the middel of the state again.. Not much change, though I expect with the input of the Gulfstream IV data the 06Z will be more enlightening..
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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AlexK.
Unregistered
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Someone might have posted this but recon found flight winds of 110K and pressure steady of 964
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GaGirl
Unregistered
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This is a great map. The only thing I see missing is Georgia. Is that a good sign or a bad one? We have been really lucky. Is our luck running out? I live in SE Ga, in a liitle town called Jesup, just north west of Brunswick and the Golden Isles. People here are a little concerned, but not overly. We have never really had to concern ourselves with these storms since David. Although we all left when Floyd looked like he could make landfall at Brunswick. I live about 50 miles inland and we took a road trip to Macon (9 hours instead of the typical 2 1/2 hour drive) Got to Macon and turned around and came right back. Never even got out of the car. It was a nightmare. We are debating about what to do now. Local stations are saying we can expect 60-75 mph winds but who knows? Any suggestions?
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Ok lets get into it!!!!!!! Right now Im going to talk about the models,,then Ill post more in a hour or so on ideas then Ill take any questions you all have.
New model runs coming in. ETA OZ run is inland near Boyton Beach across to Ft Myers. Landfall by midnight. OZ is in, landfall near Pt.St Lucie and to Arcadia then NW between LakeLand and Tampa,,,,,( this is about 50-75 miles more west then the 18Z run and has the new data into the model. It now agrees with the . Speaking of the It goes inland near Jupiter then near the Lake then across to near Sarasota and NNW just offshore Clearwater and threatning the Panhandle.. This has been the most consistant model over the last 2 days from run to run and the has been bending to this and now agrees. Jeanne is moving more closer to 14mph. Even though it was posted at 74.9 its already near 75.5 as of 1230am eastern,, at this pace she should be near 26.6 and 75.8w at 2am adv,,but i could be off by a tad. If this continues and its expected,,then landfall might happen just before midnight if any increase in speed to near 17mph. Its possible too. also makes landfall near Pt .St Lucie to Lakeland to just north of Clearwater (New Port Richie and moving NW-NNW. I havent seen the Ukmet yet or the . I would suspect a more westward shift again in the track with landfall closer to my forecast and then Nw to Lakeland and come up to near Ocala by Sunday evening. Winds at landfall I still feel will be near 120mph with gusts close to 140. This will be stronger then at landfall. Extreme damage and mass power outages will affect a wide area throughout the state in the area of the path. Strong squall lines will start to affect the east coast of florida by mid morning and work inland during the afternoon. Ill have more to come latter on my 24 hour landfall and its pretty close to what I gave 3 days ago and even 7-8 days ago last weekend.
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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[quote
Huh? It's the red text next to the coordinates.
Also had a request for more florida and less water. The only way to provide a useful (readable) close up image is to crop at 600x600. For those who are interested, here is a link to the current raw base map(1276x623): www.skeetobite.com/weather/maps/image_map.gif
I *told* you I was old, ancient and BLIND!!!!  Sheesh!!! FooPaux!
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
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Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Based on the latest , Jeanne will be a tropical storm with winds less than 53 mph when it crosses directly over Brunswick, on the way to Savannah. This is of course 5 days out and not a very reliable track past 3 days at best.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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The track will be adjusted by 50 miles to the west over florida at the 5am adv. Landfall spot still up inthe air. Right now it looks like Jupiter.
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AmoryBL
Unregistered
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Thanks for the models update. I have a feeling this may be headed for Alturas which was the crossing point for and in southern Polk County. We may have a magnet located here.
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Scott, been keeping an eye on the and UKMET, and they all remind me of your forecast. I too had the same feeling that Jeanne would come in a bit further south than the models had shown. Probably due to their poor track record with the other systems and the way they had the ridges interacting with them. Especially the which in turn influences a lot of the other models. Jeanne has definitely picked up forward speed this afternoon into this evening, and I can't help but feel that this would shift the track even further west. I was actually surprised that the hadn't moved it to the left a little further, but that's probably due to their usage of the and .
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Check the Surf
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
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Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Of course you know, that's directly over the secret lab... again.
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AdmittedHacker
Unregistered
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Thanks scott... good meaty post. I think that any additional acceleration puts Jeanne further inland as well. Won't be surprised to see more westward adjustment.... it's actually reminiscent of the story. Westward adjustments with each update....
When this year is over they need to open the hood on all the models and turn that "western bias" adjustment screw about two and a half turns to the left!
AdmittedHacker
(just too dang tired to think up any witty phrase to insert here)
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Hmmm....latest WV loop looks very interesting. The whole west side of Jeanne seems to have "exploded", as if it either sucked in some dry air or encountered some nasty shear. Definitely have to keep an eye on that.
WV Loop
WV Loop 2
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Check the Surf
Edited by AgentB (Sat Sep 25 2004 05:02 AM)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Im afraid that she might actually get a tad more west then that and do what the is saying and really giving Tampa a pounding by going all the way to Arcadia then NW to the Bay and into the Gulf by Clearwater late in the afternoon on Sunday. This will bring 80-90mph winds here even with higher gusts near the center. Right now they are forecasting 40-69mph here,, they will nudge it up to 50-70 by the 5am update and if things stay like the models and tracks a tad more w then it will be around 80-90mph. Thing is was moving slow, was 105 at landfall so by time it was in west central florida it was near 70mph tops. remember had winds 85mph with gusts over 100pm 125 miles NNE of Landfall. Jeanne should move about 12-15mph across the state and with landfall near 120mph expect her to drop 30-40mph by time it reaches this area. Over all this is going to be worse then , except the duration will be not quite as long.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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pressure down to 962mb and expect it to drop more,, Right now winds will be up to 110mph for the 2am update and might even be 115mph. Hard to say. Up to .
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
[quote
Huh? It's the red text next to the coordinates.
Also had a request for more florida and less water. The only way to provide a useful (readable) close up image is to crop at 600x600. For those who are interested, here is a link to the current raw base map(1276x623): www.skeetobite.com/weather/maps/image_map.gif
I *told* you I was old, ancient and BLIND!!!! Sheesh!!! FooPaux!
What I *meat* to say was a 'scale' on the street level map... Blub Blub
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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