LI Phil
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folks...i think we're getting a tad ahead of ourselves at this moment...this is still a TD, and while we should see development, right now it's slowly trying to get it's act together...you're not going to see banding and other hurricane features with a TD...let it matriculate a bit further north, where it will be in a more conducive environment for development, and let some of the daytime heating have a go and we'll see what we have tomorrow...read jason & clarks blogs before posting...they explain a lot of what's going on right now...after TSFH last year, i can understand everyone wanting to be on top of things and that is to be commended...this one (for now) is moving ever so slowly so there is plenty of time to prepare should that become necessary...
if the models are correct, we will have TS tomorrow and that's when we need to really start focusing...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Storm Cooper
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This is one of thoes "yea right" things that can come back and bite you if you are not watching... all eyes need to be on the N GOM
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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ftlaudbob
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Can we all agree where we are suppose to be posting,for this TD. 
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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vvvteddybearvvv
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so for dumb queston what is LLC?
Edited by John C (Thu Jun 09 2005 02:01 AM)
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Colleen A.
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Sorry, Jason! Every year I ask that question and every year I forget that you can't look at the WV loop!  I'll get it right someday.
I guess right now it's just not organized enough for me to spot or pinpoint the location with my untrained eyes. I'm sure once it gets going, I'll be on top of it again.
Thanks for your answer! 
Nothing to be sorry about..I have to relearn a lot every year myself...JK
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
Edited by wxman007 (Thu Jun 09 2005 02:05 AM)
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danielw
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LLC-Low Level Circulation ( Center )
For more see: Terms to know
Edited by John C (Thu Jun 09 2005 02:04 AM)
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Droop31
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I agree Phil. We all know depressions take time to get there act together, especially given the enviroment TD 1 is in. The ridge is forecast to build over the gulf as has been stated today and that will put the TD in a better posittion to intensify by the time it gets in the Gulf. At least thats what I make of the situation. We'll see what actually happens.
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javlin
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LLC:low level circulation visible during daytime visilbe sat.Actually w/infra at night with a developed storm would see center of circulation.
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Colleen A.
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No dumb questions here, remember?  "LLC" stands for "low level circulation". In other words, it's closer to the surface than an ULL (upper level low) which is higher in the atmosphere.
Hope that helps!
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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wxman007
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Quote:
is it me or have the 00Z runs moved back to the right, and would they have recon data in them? or when would that happen?
The only 00Z data we have is the LBAR/BAM suite...they have been somewhat further east the entire time anyway, so it is not unusual that these are a bit further east...we'll see what the globals and the better track models do later tonight/tomorrow. The only recon data these have in them are the center fixes...no upper air stuff.
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Jason Kelley
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LI Phil
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Quote:
Can we all agree where we are suppose to be posting,for this TD.
please don't misunderstand the intent of my post...please feel free to ask away with questions and the like...i simply wanted to point out that until there is further development, it will be very difficult to identify the more "classic" signs of a potential hurricane, such as LLC's mlc's, rotation, etc...i do not mean to downplay the possible development of this storm nor do i want anyone to put down their guard...i'm simply stating that for this evening, what we are dealing with is a naiscent TS, but one that is still a TD and as such, is characterized more by disorganized convection than any discernable "classic" cyclone traits...
if you have questions, please do not hesitate to ask.
Spongebob: LLC= low level circulation
many of your questions can be answered here.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Colleen A.
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Right here, buddy. Just look for the newest topic/forum. I'll point you in the right direction if ya get lost.
Kinda like the blind leading the blind though. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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StormHound
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Fox News in Orlando has promised their Scare-O-Meter later in the telecast.
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Storm Hound
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Bloodstar
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The depression is going to take a while to get going, assuming it ever really gets going at all (I'm still not 100% convinced it will hold together). The hardest part about storms like these, particularly at night, is there is no real effective way to see incremental changes that occur as the storm gets organized. By the time you're seeing any real organization on the IR or WV loops, it's not a depression anymore (most lkely). I'm just as guilty as everyone else about looking for the next frame of the sat loops and wondering to myself... what are we seeing? (Kinda like reading tea leaves, only a little more obscure). Usually it's easier to take things in 3 - 6 hours increments. Even with well developed hurricanes a small fluctuation may mean nothing but a course wobble, or it could portend a major shift in intensity or direction. It's really hard to tell.
I hope this isn't coming across as a slam at anyone, it's not. it's just that the incremental changes to look for take a few hours to show up definitively on the sat images.
As an aside, what are some good weather related links to browse while we wait for the next set of images? something that would take a while to read and digest and perhaps give us neophytes some information to chew upon. Something basic, and then some more advanced links as well....
Ok, now on to the meat of the post (Standard Disclaimer: IANAM, and what i say should be taken with a grain of salt (or a nice big ole salt lick if you prefer)). From what I'm seeing, The biggest development has been the convection coming off of Honduras and forming a potential spiral arm. At the same time, The thunderstorms collapsed on the western side of the depression. However there is more thunderstorm activity near the center now than at any point in the storms life. It looks like the outflow is getting better (hey, in my book a little outflow is better than *no* outflow), but there still is no convection on the southern side of the storm (not counting the storms off of Honduras...) I'd say the depression is a bit stronger now than 6 hours ago. However still not a tropical storm by any stretch.
Questions to ponder:
Will the convection remaining on the eastern side of the storm 'pull' the LLC to the right (east)? Will High pressure build in enough to push the storm to the west? The shear appears to be relaxing to the west, will it continue to relax and potentially enhance outflow?
Just my musings, don't take it too seriously.
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Frank P
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Jav, when a tropical depression, or tropical storm or hurricane warning are posted for Biloxi its always open house at the Frank P manor for my hurricane fanatic friends.... just bring a few cold ones.... you won't find a better viewing site for watching one.... I can guarantee...
Back to TD one... going to be a slow process.... probably won't see much developement until it reaches the GOM... this will be a good tune up for the central gulf coast....
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Colleen A.
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Well, my friend, until this TD gets more organized, there's not much for me to look at right now. I think in the next 24-48 hours the picture will become clearer and we'll know more since we have recon going in there.
Now this tired mom of Thing 1 & Thing 2 is going to bed!
Have a great night!
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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danielw
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Thanks FrankP.
Although the MS Gulf Coast might need a tune up. I think it's rather early in the season for them.
It might be more of a mad rush for some of them.
Planning makes all the difference. Be ready on June 1st, and you should be ready all season.
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wxman007
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If you are a model geek like me, or you are not and need a good snooze...check this page out. It is the explainer about the track models...how they work and their accuracy, or lack thereof. It is a little out of date, but still a good reference.
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Jason Kelley
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Frank P
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yeah Danny but if all we are dealing with is at best a strong tropical storm heck most people don't even board up .... I won't for 60 mph winds.... now in the unlikely event it does crank up, which NO ONE is even remotely mentioning then it would be a mad rush of epic proportions.... but don't see that happening..
Be cool to have a couple of 50 or 60K feeder bands pounding on my house.... but no more....
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Colleen A.
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LOL---Scare-O-Meter! Heck, I'm on the west coast and the guy on Bay News 9 was oblivious to the fact that there was even a plane OUT there 10 minutes before he had to announce that the had just announced that TD#1 had formed.
I think what they are doing ("they" being the media) is trying to prepare people as much as possible for this year's hurricane season. Last year was devastating to so many people because we had so many close calls that people didn't really believe they could get hit...especially those living inland, like me.
If TD#1 stays on it's current track projection, Orlando may get one raindrop.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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