FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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hey guys i know this may be a little off topic, but i am looking for a printable hurricane tracking map,,,anyone know where i can get one of those?...thanks becky
The weather here is actually partly cloudy...not too bad considering the rest of you are getting soaked...im sorry:(
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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KN4LF
Unregistered
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#28 Published Thursday June 09, 2005 at 1:00 pm EDT
As of 11:00 am EDT we officially have T.S. . She continues on a slow NNW movement towards the Yucatan Channel. She is still disorganized with most of the convection E-NE of the low level center, thanks to continued SSW wind shear in association with the mid level trough in the western Gulf Of Mexico region. It appears that this mid level trough will weaken rather slowly, continuing the shearing environment for another 24-30 hours.
As I mentioned yesterday evening at best will reach weak category 1 hurricane strength, with strong T.S. strength the best bet. Landfall sometime on Saturday near Mobile Bay, AL per the seems reasonable. However with a temporary weakening of the Bermuda high pressure ridge over and east of Florida a land fall near Pensacola, FL is also possible.
Tropical storm force wind gusts, a small storm surge, heavy rainfall and destructive tornadoes are possible along the coast from Key West to Panama City and probable from Pensacola to Mobile Bay during the Friday-Saturday 06/10-11/05 period.
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf@arrl.net
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249
Plant City, FL NWS CWOP Weather Station #AR692 Live Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index1.html
Plant City, FL NWS CWOP Weather Station #AR692 3 Minute Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.html
Plant City, FL Daily Climatological Weather Data Archive: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm
Florida Daily Weather Discussion: http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm
Florida Raw Weather Forecasting Product Links: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf13.htm
Global Warming Refuted: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf42.htm
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abyrd
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: apopka
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Hi all, welcome back.
Just a thought that worries me a little.
I keep hearing the Orlando news say there is no chance of coming close to us here. While the most likely place that it will go will be Mobile, aren't the models baseing that on the high pressure moving closer to Florida, which hasn't happened yet and might not? While indicators show it staying off Florida, if that high doesn't move, I believe it could follow the tropical moisture that has been nailing Florida for a couple weeks now.
I'm not saying it's going to do that, just a thought. Anyone have any thoughts or corrections, please post.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Sure...it might move towards Orlando...but the data that we have in no way support that solution. Pretty much everything we see tells us the same story, and that story is meteorologically sound to human eyes as well. What you are talking about could happen, sure....but it is so remote from the observed data that it doesn't merit mentioning at this point.
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Jason Kelley
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Katie
Weather Guru
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Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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I think you can get a printable map on www.noaa.gov. Look or a direct link www.nhc.noaa.gov
I think I saw one there the other day. Hope that helps!
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abyrd
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: apopka
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That makes a lot of sense and it is exactly why we are lucky to have you. Thank you.
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lonny307
Unregistered
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Everyone is worried is going to hit there town. At the present time if would hit lets say New Orleans it would be a partly sunny day and breezy. All the convection and flooding rain is east of her right now and with the shear I don't think it will wrap around the west right away or maybe not at all. So right now anyone east of the center as it moves north will get all the weather. 
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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thank you very much colleen....
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Callaway, Florida
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Remember that all the rain is to the northeast side of the center so you will still get some weather from it even if it goes to mobile. Jason does this look like a tornado maker?
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Terra
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Quote:
The visible is making it a little easier to see the center of ; it appears that it's right where the has it located.
You're right.... these last couple frames, since I left work make things so much clearer. I think my main confusion was actually locating the LLC (again).... This is why I like stronger storms... they're easy to visualize!
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Loc: Tampa
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I just did a Google (my favorite) there are many sites http://www.almanac.com/weathercenter/weathercenter.graphics/atlantic_11x17.pdf
Thanks for the early BD wish for my son K
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Mobile,AL
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Quote:
Colleen - I agree, I don't want to know what is to come if we do get something from her. I feel like I need a boat instead of a truck to get around here lately. These pm storms are killing me!! Great sleeping weather but not at 6 in the evening!
Katie you can use my Jetski this weekened if you need to. Then again I might need it to get around Mobile .
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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(good one rollie)
i am home right now, so i popped on and unfortunately, it looks like is going to make saturday and possibly all of sunday too a washout for florida...sorry katie...but at this point i would either postpone maddie's partay or plan on holding it indoors... 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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~Floydbuster
Verified CFHC User
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Tonight, starting at 7pm Eastern, Radio WX will have live coverage of Tropical Storm . To listen in, click here: http://66.98.251.190:9032/listen.pls
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HF at work
Unregistered
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early Saturday the shear conditions around should have improved a good bit, and it will be on the less pressing flank of the upper trough/subsidence (the trough should weaken some as well). i've noticed that the SSTs in the north central gulf have warmed a couple of degrees in the last couple of days... probably shallow warmth, but at 82-83 offshore near the expected impact point, i'm starting to think that might throw together a nice little intensification burst before hitting land. decent chance it's a minimal hurricane at impact late saturday.
as for 91L.. it's actually moving into a low shear zone, with potential outflow evacuation mechanisms nearby. the SSTs up where it is are very marginal though.. upper 70s to 80. it'll really have to fight to do anything.
more than one global is on to future development near the central and eastern caribbean and northward early next week. if anything does the upper ridge will have weakened significantly and it would most likely move north and east.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Sat pixs show perhaps two centers, one at what I think will ultimately be the main center around 20.00 and 83.7, and another little vortex around 19.5 and 84.9... which I think at one time might have been the overall center of the storm... this little vortex will probably be dissolved in the storm as the center at 20.00 and 83.7 tries to take control. ... regardless its not looking all that impressive at the moment.... might be struggling with a split personality at the moment which can hinder development
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abyrd
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: apopka
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It's not a matter of being worried it will hit Orlando. My comment was more to the people who are saying it won't affect Orlando. Checking the great wind probability chart from the , Orlando has a 5 % chance of TS winds between now and Sunday. I felt that it was irresponsible to say no chance of it hitting here.
Jason clarified why they wouldn't discuss the chances of severe impact on Orlando.
If you haven't looked at the wind probability chart, that was a great addition to the 's tropical storm package. Living inland, we were without a lot of information that the coast had. This gives inlanders an opportunity to know what their impacts may be in any storm. Kudos to them.
As long as I can still fish Mosquito Lagoon this weekend, I'm happy.
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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well we got some pretty nasty stuff here in the riverview area....strong winds and heavy rains...is this part of the squalls?...just curious....
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Mobile,AL
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Does anyone else feel like Saturday is a little early for landfall ? I just don't see this storm moving that fast. I think that Sunday around 9am would be the more likely time for landfall
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Loc: USA
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great observation. now center will be near more convection.
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