Droop31
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Pensacola
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Rabbit, remember what just about every TS does during the evening? They normally settle down and come morning, they usually burst, and I have a feeling that may happen. Sorta like Barry if ya'll remember him?
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Rabbit -- not necessarily. For the reasons I outlined in my previous post, the convection hit the cooler waters of southern Apalachee Bay at the right time -- the diurnal convective minimum -- to result in the pattern we've seen. It happened last night, too. There's plenty of time for things to recover: it only takes one hour, really. Upper level conditions are still diffluent (winds moving in different directions over a horizontal area), favorable for convection, and the warmest waters are still yet to come as the storm makes its final approach to landfall. I'm not saying it won't weaken, but I don't think you can make such a statement yet, especially considering the steadily falling pressure over the past 6hr despite the weakening convective trend over the past 2-3hr.
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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Quote:
Quote:
ok a little off topic once again...but...when do u think the next storm will be?...any guesses?
lets get thru (there are still a LARGE number of people YET to be affected by her)...
bret will come...but we will deal with that when the time comes...for now...
arlene remains our focus
well thank you for answering me, but it was merely an honest/curious question...sorry to go off topic
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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Ryan
Unregistered
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so i guess this is a bad time to ask if a long island landfalling hurricane is a possibilty(any expertise or meteroroligist know any info.)
information is greatly appreciated.
Ryan
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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aaack! rabbit you always start putting nails in the coffin while they're still thrashing. course you could be right, but you're almost like the opposite of cat 5 rick.
HF 0441z11june
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Ryan -- a landfall is a possibility this year, just like it is in any year. No one can say where a storm may or may not hit 3 days before landfall, yet alone at the start of the season. The climatological odds are all you can go off of right now.
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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if anybody here has the clairvoyance to tell ryan when long island gets its next hurricane, could they tell me who wins the NL East this year? i'm just dying to know.
dude, nobody knows. it's like asking how many days you have to stand on the golf course before thunderstorm lightning kills you.
HF 0444z11june
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mikeG
Unregistered
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clark- is taking the DOW on the road? or do they still have it?
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> if anybody here has the clairvoyance to tell ryan when long island gets its next hurricane, could they tell me who wins the NL East this year?
braves hf...same as every damn year...
as far as LI...we're "due"...but then, like about 3 others said, we're "always due". basically we operate in 20-30 year cycles, but that's just an average...we can get 3-4 cat I-II-IIIs in a 10 year period than none for 50 years...
if you're really interested (but not tonight) PM me and i will hook you up with an amazing history of LI canes...we do get 'em, just not that often
they are sort of like a horror movie monster, those braves.. soon as you think they're finally dead they show back up with a vengeance. 'course, the NL east has five teams that can win it this year. no guarantees. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Jun 11 2005 04:12 AM)
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Wow I jumped the gun putting up the hurricanely likely headline title. Now it's a crapshoot for tomorrow. If I wake up tomorrow and is still a storm, I'll be happy that I'm wrong. In this case I hope I am wrong.
Thanks all. I redid the about page somewhat and stuck a new photo of me up there. Tomorrow I'm off to go talk to in person (He's in Orlando tomorrow)
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Clark
Meteorologist
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The DOW is still in the shop. I imagine it will be for the foreseeable future; it's essentially sunk costs right now (thankfully most everything, including labor, was donated, but it's still amounted to a whole lot of nothing). Too many structural & engineering problems with the truck and technology.
If we had the money -- which we probably do, but probably wouldn't spend it -- it'd be worth just getting a new radar truck of our own and turning it over to the new faculty who can actually use it. But, I digress; that's getting away from the topic at hand.
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HanKFranK
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i don't think anybody's gonna throw rotten vegetables at you, mike. if doesn't make the cut, you/me/most of the mets, even the forecast team this evening were duped. 'sides, its arguable that did make the cut. they usually use a 10% reduction factor to SFC winds (but i can't remember if that's the 850mb level or what). well either way it's REALLY close (989mb is more often associated with hurricanes than tropical storms). of course, i might have to bow before the almighty rabbit for making fudds out of us (sucker costs me a fortune in blossomed shotgun barrels).
HF 0508z11june
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> of course, i might have to bow before the almighty rabbit for making fudds out of us (sucker costs me a fortune in blossomed shotgun barrels).
no way...well...ok maybe way...the varmint starts pulling the dreaded voodoo hex out-the-hat in my 11th hour....
duck season..wabbit season..duck season...wabbit season
ah crap...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Evening all. Someone seems to have put a hex on .
Have to call her a hybrid of the third kind.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Have any of you read the 10 Pm discussion?
HF, I read your take on the landfall, and I'll second that. Long range radar is looking more to the NW or WNW. Still waiting on a radar update.
And along that line. The EVX Long Range radar is painting a pretty good picture of at this time.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p38cr/si.kevx.shtml
This just in from NOAA3.
NOAA3 0701A OB 11
MAX FLT LVL WIND 71KTS NE QUAD 0214Z
That was the bottom part of the Vortex report at 0435Z
Edited by danielw (Sat Jun 11 2005 04:46 AM)
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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A) recon report-does that mean is a hurricane at 2am?
B) is that an eye forming on radar?
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Not until declares her a Hurricane. I misread your post. That declaration would be at 50/ 50 right now.
I'm not sure about the eye on radar either. My eyes tell me it's a definite center...but to far out to call.
NOAA3 is recovering to their base right now...so no data for the time being. I'll update this post with the next recon time if available.
I didn't intend to detract from what the is saying. Just that analysis of the radar and aircraft data indicates is not dead yet.
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Droop31
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 32
Loc: Pensacola
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Have to agree with you Danielw, even though she doesnt look that great right now on IR, its a normal process with these Tropical Storms. If she decides to give us one last burst this morning, things could get crankin. I guess we'll see in a few hours. Looks like the outer bands of should be getting here soon. Night ya'll.
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Recon is airborne. We should have some idea of what, if anything is going on in and around shortly
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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here in PCB, on beach, winds have picked up....moderate to heavy rain with gusts, wind i say 20mph or so....gust to 25-30...pres. 1007mb got radar GRlevel 3 up....on elgin center appears to be on a more wnw course than NW, as i write center is 110 miles from the house...if kept path per radar, landfall mobile, east side of mobile... looks like in the next hour or two, some cells may come ashore in gulf, bay, franklin counties that bare watching......looks impressive for a weak one-sided storm she is.....
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Jun 11 2005 06:16 AM)
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