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NHC advisories to begin shortly on Storm 01L (Potential Tropical Cyclone 01L) in the Western Gulf. Elsewhere, low east of Bahamas being tracked.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 293 (Idalia) , Major: 293 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 293 (Idalia) Major: 293 (Idalia)
21.3N 93.0W
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Pres: 999mb
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N at 6 mph
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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Orlando, FL
Unregistered




Re: A Wobble NW [Re: FlaMommy]
      #38903 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:02 PM

I think it might too, its that gut feeling, but we'll see, there's no use in worrying, it'll get us nowhere.

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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


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Posts: 161
still a large window for error [Re: Unregistered User]
      #38904 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:03 PM

cut and pasted from NHC....we all have to assume it's heading our way...cause the fact remains...it's too far away...everyone keeps thinking the next advisory...and they'll get a handle on it.....I am hearing it is changing easterly a bit...
if this trend were to continue....it might easily track towards Tampa....just have to wait and see...but usually...it's down the middle somwhat....if it hits Pensacola, or Panama City...Mobile will suffer little, if any....however, any jog, slowdown..etc...can change things quickly....

this is a great site, learning a lot....

now, from the NHC discussion:

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY


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AgentB
Weather Guru


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Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: A Wobble NW [Re: FlaMommy]
      #38905 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:04 PM

Quote:

well the past couple days the percentage of tampa being hit has increased steadily....first it was 5 , 7, 10 and now we are at a total of 18....i think im gonna start getting ready....




The strike probability you're referring to is actually the chance that the center will pass within 65 nautical miles(74 statute miles) of that location. Currently hurricane force winds extend 45mi from the center and t.s. force winds 140mi. The numbers will increase as time progresses, until the storm has passed the location, because the storm is getting closer. Unless the track shifts dramatically one way or another.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker


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Re: A Wobble NW [Re: AgentB]
      #38906 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:06 PM

oh ok thank you agent....i was under the imperession that was probability of being hit...thanks for clarifying...

--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


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Re: A Wobble NW [Re: FlaMommy]
      #38907 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:08 PM

Quote:

well the past couple days the percentage of tampa being hit has increased steadily....first it was 5 , 7, 10 and now we are at a total of 18....i think im gonna start getting ready....


Miami is now up to 18.

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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doug
Weather Analyst


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Re: A Wobble NW [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #38908 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:13 PM

I did not answer the question I raised earlier about something else happening an hour ago because I am at work and actually needed to see more views before committing...while the motion to the wnw seems to have resumed a slight warming in cloud temps, lessening of convection has recently persisted on the N and East side.
could be interaction of the two large land masses it is traversing as we speak.

--------------------
doug


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


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Re: models [Re: twizted sizter]
      #38909 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:15 PM

I still think we are looking for a Alabama/MS landfall, but it does make you wonder if this is payback for last year and Ivan. The NHC was originally saying it was coming up the West Coast of FL but it kept going west. Do we have a flip episode here?

Naaaww! Look out AL/MS/FL borders!!!!!

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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pcola
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: models [Re: stormchazer]
      #38910 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:19 PM

In Pensacola we feel like the car rear view mirror. The models keep going from our east, to our west, to our east, etc. I just wish we could get out of the center.

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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twizted sizter
Weather Guru


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new thread [Re: pcola]
      #38913 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:26 PM

new thread is up.

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Pensacola101
Unregistered




Re: A Wobble NW [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #38918 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:31 PM

Well, people here in Pensacola are really going nuts. If this thing hits us, it will just be a remake of Ivan. People here still have tarps on their roofs in some places. It will be a disaster if it comes close to us in Pensacola.

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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist


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Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
Re: A Wobble NW [Re: Pensacola101]
      #38946 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:27 PM

It's awfully hard for a hurricane of Dennis' size to make a west Florida impact coming from the Western Caribbean and the SE GOM. Charley did it, but it's rather uncommon. I just don't see it happening, especially with the current pattern. I think the area that needs to be very concerned is from Grand Isle, LA to Pensacola, FL. I am not saying that everyone else should let down their guard, this is just my opinion on the developing situation. Everyone has to stop looking at the short term motions (i.e a 3 hour sample) and look at a running 24 hours minimum. Small jogs to the west and north are common and are going to continue to occur. There is no need to freak out over each and every one.

I can tell you that I am deeply troubled about the possibility of a New Orleans impact and I am already beginning to make plans. The amazing thing is that hotels are already sold out across the region.

--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!


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PensacolaAgain
Unregistered




Re: A Wobble NW [Re: Pensacola101]
      #39002 - Thu Jul 07 2005 05:45 PM

Gas stations are running out of fuel and the ones remaining are jacking up the prices. People are going nuts in Pensacola.

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