Ricreig
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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gosh will you quit wishcasting this storm NORTH already? every 10 minutes you have to chime in "look at the satellites, it's taking a N turn", "I have a bad feeling it is about to hook sharp North", "Lookout Miami!" etc. All you are doing is creating panic based on "gut feeling". enough already. face it, it's not going anywhere near Miami... get over it. ]
I really hate being the public defender here, but, this forum is not a good place for flames and indictments. As long as the longitude of a storm is EAST of your position and the Latitude SOUTH of your, you cann not afford to ignore *any* possiblities no matter how remote. Ignoring facts like that can cause you to get hurt if your ignore it just because it is not popular. I don't think he has ever stated Miama or a specific city. South Florida is what I read, and the Keys are in South Florida, as is any number of south west coast cities. While unlikely they will be hit directly, it is not impossible until the storm is North of them heading away.
His repetitiveness *may* be fear speaking, trying to get reassurance that it will NOT happen because he fears it might. Anyone living through Andrew or any other large storm often has emotional wounds that express themselves as fear, even irrational fear. I have seen any number of posts from people on this board that have the same fear and ask the question repeatedly.
This is not a time to be intolerant of fear, a Category IV hurricane IS something to have a healthy respect for and yes, maybe a little fear also. Lets' return the "Pucker Indes" to a lower value. Ignore if you must but exhibit a little tolerance also.
Richard
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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trinibaje
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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I would really like to get everyones input on this.This could be a great test for this theary.I think it is powerfull enough.Very interesting.
Bob.. you keep the discussion very interesting....
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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VandyBrad
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 80
Loc: Bryan, TX
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I would really like to get everyones input on this.This could be a great test for this theary.I think it is powerfull enough.Very interesting.
Clark did mention that stronger storms tend to push northward moreso than weaker storms. He gave a great explanation as well. In this case, I'd expect that the effect may be muted due to the high directly north of . It would be like you trying to walk through the wall five feet from the doorway out of your house. Just my $0.02.
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Brad Shumbera
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Rapid Scan Operation Real-Time Imagery looks very sweet this morning!!!!
here's a sample
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/data/rmtcrso/126.jpg
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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wow that is very very impressive....amazing at the size of this thing... 
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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Terra
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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There are already three closures due to the storm in NO, and there is supposed to be some evacuation meeting at 11AM today.... Man, a little western shift and the panic begins....
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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I might be wrong, but I believe that because was such a small storm (size) that it was able to spin up more quickly whereas a larger storm would take more time for the winds to catch up with falling pressure
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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emilywiseman
Registered User
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Posts: 2
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Very new to this... I'm in Mobile AL and have noticed a westward shift. Any predictions on if we will get a direct hit?
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Lysis
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Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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It is very possible... You should probably start to get your stuff together no later than tomorrow.
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cheers
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Jax Chris
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 28
Loc: Jacksonville Beach, FL
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Very new to this... I'm in Mobile AL and have noticed a westward shift. Any predictions on if we will get a direct hit?
My prediction is that you should prepare. I'm not saying that it will hit Mobile or that it won't, just that if you wait until a prediction of a hit can be given with even a 50% chance of being correct it'll be too late to prepare sufficiently.
Jax Chris
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palmetto
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 23
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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Anyone within the forecast cone needs to be getting their gear together and making their plans. 
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AdvAutoBob
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 35
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
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Cape Coral checking in.... a lot of people here are taking things seriously. I've seen two gas stations that are out of gas, and a couple of others with plastic bags over the regular nozzles... At our local Lowes and Home Depot, the generators are now flying off the pallets, along with storm panels and attaching hardware. The story is the same at our Sam's Club..generators, water, etc being loaded up. Not full-on panic mode, just people preparing. Later today and tonight that may change, especially if we wind up in the cone again (keep shifting in and out). People get paid on Fridays and that's when the last minute panic buying will likely set in.
As for myself, my generator's fueled and prepped, with all my storm supplies stocked up (did that early on), and am patiently watching the track to decide when (if) to put up at least some of my shutters (I have a rear wall nearly all glass). Thanks to all the mets and mods here at for a fantastic site, this is truly the best place for information.
Bob
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"Chance favors the prepared mind"
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TDW
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 37
Loc: Mobile, AL
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With , so many people tried to leave last years, that inland cities like Hattiesburg had traffice jams beyond their ability to handle. If you're going to get out the way of , you might want to do it now.
(I'll be spending the storm at a hospital here in Mobile.)
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"It's time to see the world
It's time to kiss a girl
It's time to cross the wild meridian"
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tpratch
Moderator
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Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/091832.shtml?prob?large
Based on that, and the size of this storm and its projected intensity of landfall, I'd secure your supplies and board up. An evacuation order isn't going to come until this evening at the soonest and your preparations should already be made.
Don't wait too long and be one of the folks scrounging around for plywood 24 hours out. That was me with last year. Fortunately, was a slow-moving storm that gave me enough time to get 4x8 3/4" board that friends and family had extra after doing their own houses. I ended up with just enough to spare and was even able to help an older woman across the street board up her front with the leftover sheet.
My new house came with hurricane ply, and my wife and I have our hurricane stores already set for the season.
I guess my point is this. the has heading your way as do most of the models. It is prudent to take whatever steps you can. It's a lot easier to unboard a house after the storm misses, than it is to ride out a Cat 2+ without any protective measures. You certainly don't want to be boarding up while the rain and wind are picking up - that can get plain nasty.
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Looking at the GOM water vapor
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
Can Clark or any other MET comment on the ULLs over eastern Texas and the other in the SW Gulf and they're potential impact on the track of . I'm no expert, but it seems these two features may act to force more on a more northward path once it exits the north coast of Cuba and gains some latitude in the eastern GOM. Also, I notice the high (currently centered east of Daytona Beach) seems to be drifting a little to the NE. Don't know what it all means, but it seems a more parallel path to the florida west coast rather than a NW path into NO. Also, seems to indicate that some SW shear may impact the system as it gets into the northern GOM.
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RJB
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tornado00
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 85
Loc: Maitland, Florida, USA
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And in the last few frames of this imagery, it apperas that the storm has taken an almost due north jog. If this is when it has decided to turn north, West Florida has got a bigger problem on their hands.
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Derek Sutherland
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msmith43
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 18
Loc: South Tampa
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I've been gathering supplies in Tampa over the last few days. Since Wednesday and Thursday there doesn't seem to be much concern among those in South Tampa. Neighborhood stores seem well-stocked. In fact, Sam's Club last night was still had pallets of generators, water, etc. and very few shoppers. Gas stations seemed a little busier than usual for a week night. Very different compared to 2004 with lines of people waiting 6-8 hours for plywood and water shipments.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I've always noticed in the past when tracking hurricanes that when the forward motion slows down, this usually indicates the beginning of a turn. The discussion mentioned that although the models have begun to turn to the west, that was probably due to the initialization of that westward movement and they believe that the NW turn will resume. I wonder if this is the beginning of that turn and that's why it's still listed as moving as NW and not WNW. If they don't change the motion in the next advisory, then that may be exactly what they are thinking. The local mets are saying that we ALL need to watch because sometimes when it moves over land it can disrupt the system and cause it to move. I guess we'll all just have to wait and see what happens...what else is new? 
And yes, I KNOW that's he's had a more westward movement from 11pm to 8am, so please don't anyone yell at me. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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tornado00
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 85
Loc: Maitland, Florida, USA
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Even though none of the models don't see it happening, I think we should not get complacent. Anything can happen, its one of the most unpredictable sciences in the world. Yes, a panhandle landfall seems more likely than a Tampa, south florida hit. However, until it actually does make landfall in the Panhandle, we will not know what its really going to do.
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Derek Sutherland
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Again I usually take the approach for reasons why a storm won't affect your area, not why they might. It usually gives a better perspective. There are many reasons why a S. Florida hit are not likely, and there are less for the panhandle.
I'm trying to find better news for the Panhandle, very hard, and can't right now.
Check the Everything and Nothing forum for moved posts, only blatantly bad stuff will get deleted.
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