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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Dennis and Cuba [Re: MikeC]
      #39775 - Fri Jul 08 2005 10:04 AM

Also, wanted to suggest watching for persistence, watching wobbles right now is not important. The overal NHC track has been good, and I still expect it to be so. The cone still allows for error, if you spot something we are missing let us know here.

Speculation without reasoning will get bumped to E/N or storm forum while Dennis is on approach.



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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery [Re: tornado00]
      #39777 - Fri Jul 08 2005 10:06 AM

Most definitely.

Hurricane tracking is a highly inexact science.

That the models/predictions have gotten better over the last few decades only makes it worse - because it is still very much an inexact science.

The cone of error is there for a damn good reason and everyone needs to respect that. If a hurricane watch or warning goes up, do the safe thing and finish your preparations. I-95 was a parking lot last year heading north during Frances and Jeanne. My parents decided to evacuate to the west coast of Florida for Frances, and they were a little better off - until the storms hit over there too.

Level-headedness is a trait everyone could use more of right now. So please, everyone - try and avoid making rash statements, wishcasting, and/or fearcasting.

The track is in the hands of the professionals now and there are many folks on this board whose insight is more valuable than gold. Let's give them the stage and continue our normal discussions.

I'm sure there will be plenty of people registering to ask questions any of us are qualified to answer ("where's the best place on the beach to watch an approaching hurricane?" - answer: "none")


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Warnings for Central Florida [Re: Katie]
      #39780 - Fri Jul 08 2005 10:10 AM

Any time anyone prepares for a hurricane its a good thing, regardless of whether the storm is approaching or the start of the hurricane season. Besides we do not know the financial situation of the people buying "last minute". Some people are poorer than others, and have to delay getting their hurricane supplies until they think they absolutely need it. The good news is, as it appears they are close to you, is that they will now have their supplies for the rest of the season. Also they could be shopping for others that are in the cross hairs of the storm. Keep in mind everyone's situation maybe different. I am more more fortunate than others, but I try to keep that in mind when facing the last minute hurricane crowds.

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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tornado00
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
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Loc: Maitland, Florida, USA
Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery [Re: tpratch]
      #39781 - Fri Jul 08 2005 10:11 AM

The track predicting is in the hands of the experts, but personally, I think the track itself is in the hands of the weather. Their at mother natures mercy, just as everyone else is. They just have some more experience than most people, and a Ph.D.

--------------------
Derek Sutherland


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: Dennis and Cuba [Re: MikeC]
      #39783 - Fri Jul 08 2005 10:12 AM

Reposted from Ron Basso (lost post):

Looking at the GOM water vapor

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

Can Clark or any other MET comment on the ULLs over eastern Texas and the other in the SW Gulf and they're potential impact on the track of Dennis. I'm no expert, but it seems these two features may act to force Dennis more on a more northward path once it exits the north coast of Cuba and gains some latitude in the eastern GOM. Also, I notice the high (currently centered east of Daytona Beach) seems to be drifting a little to the NE. Don't know what it all means, but it seems a more parallel path to the florida west coast rather than a NW path into NO. Also, seems to indicate that some SW shear may impact the system as it gets into the northern GOM.


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Katie
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
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What are the chances [Re: tpratch]
      #39784 - Fri Jul 08 2005 10:13 AM

Okay, just curious here.

Anyone know with past storms if this will be record breaking season (thus far) for one area to be hit by so many storms?

I know here in Polk County we got three last year and I know that the past three storms (if Dennis goes that way) didn't hit the exact same place but the Southern Gulf States were all affected.

I guess my question is, how normal is this for one particular area to just be slammed so many times in a year (and I say a year because Ivan paid a visit last year)? I just remember growing up and one season would have a hit in the South Carolina, or North Carolina or a hit in Florida or another Gulf State, but it just seems like the past year has not been very good for The Florida Penisula and Gulf States. Is this a trend for another season to come or are we going to be able to catch a break anytime soon?


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TDW
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
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Loc: Mobile, AL
Re: Warnings for Central Florida [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #39785 - Fri Jul 08 2005 10:13 AM

At 6:30 am this morning. The Home Deopt in west mobile had over 100 people waiting to get in. The store was full and no one could enter until someone left.

No matter the warning, a lot of people always wait until the last minute.

--------------------
"It's time to see the world
It's time to kiss a girl
It's time to cross the wild meridian"


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G. J.
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Reged: Thu
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Loc: Tampa, FL
Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery [Re: tpratch]
      #39789 - Fri Jul 08 2005 10:15 AM

Have any of you heard any reports from Gitmo? Anyone with friends or family down there? Just wondering how bad things got there. I saw the report with the Dr. last night on CNN about getting Hamm radio reports of the surge and such (probably from Manzanillo or Santiago de Cuba), but nothing about our troops in Gitmo

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
Re: Dennis and Cuba [Re: MikeC]
      #39790 - Fri Jul 08 2005 10:15 AM

Quote:

Also, wanted to suggest watching for persistence, watching wobbles right now is not important. The overal NHC track has been good, and I still expect it to be so. The cone still allows for error, if you spot something we are missing let us know here.

Speculation without reasoning will get bumped to E/N or storm forum while Dennis is on approach.




Mike,I am not bashing the NHC at all,they do a great job.But it is not like the skinny black line has not changed over the last few days,it has.And with that cone.......kinda of hard not to look good.I mean the cone covers a big area.Anyway,looks like landfall in Cuba soon.

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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tornado00
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
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Loc: Maitland, Florida, USA
Re: Dennis and Cuba [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #39791 - Fri Jul 08 2005 10:17 AM

That's most people for ya, procrastinators.

--------------------
Derek Sutherland


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317288
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 5
Loc: Cairo,Ga.
Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery [Re: tornado00]
      #39792 - Fri Jul 08 2005 10:18 AM

Does that appear to be some drier air being sucked in on the west side of Dennis? If so,is this temparory?

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AdvAutoBob
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 35
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery [Re: tornado00]
      #39793 - Fri Jul 08 2005 10:19 AM

Quote:

And in the last few frames of this imagery, it apperas that the storm has taken an almost due north jog.




Maybe not due north, but definitely a northern jog. Perhaps it's just a wobble, but I'll check it again in a couple of hours to be sure. (Watching the trend, not the individual frames as our pros and semi-pros here tell us).

--------------------
"Chance favors the prepared mind"


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Tropics Guy
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Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: Dennis and Cuba [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #39794 - Fri Jul 08 2005 10:20 AM

Dennis appears to have resumed a NW motion the last few hours versus WNW in the early morning hours. Still very close to the NHC track though I think it will cross over Cuba somewhat to the right of the NHC track.
TG


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twizted sizter
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
update [Re: tornado00]
      #39795 - Fri Jul 08 2005 10:21 AM

The 11 will have the latest recon right?

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VandyBrad
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 80
Loc: Bryan, TX
Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery [Re: AdvAutoBob]
      #39796 - Fri Jul 08 2005 10:22 AM

Looking at the Cuban radar is kind of funny. The gap at the center of the radar frame makes it look like Dennis has two eyes...
http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/03Cienfuegos/cienfuegosa.gif

--------------------
Brad Shumbera


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emilywiseman
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2
Re: Warnings for Central Florida [Re: TDW]
      #39798 - Fri Jul 08 2005 10:23 AM

I was at Home Depot(Mobile, AL) at 5:30 am and the line was about 100 deep, by 6:30 it was about 250 deep. Finally got a genarator at 8:00 am... Thats what I get for waiting till a storm is coming!!

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Magic Hat
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 10
Loc: Lucedale, MS
Re: Dennis and Cuba [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #39802 - Fri Jul 08 2005 10:32 AM

Quote:

Quote:

watching wobbles right now is not important.





Last night around midnight central I saw the eye wobble north toward the Bahamas. What worried me was I didn't see any watches or warnings for the Bahamas. These things are too unpredictable to assume they will not change direction overnight. Fortunately for the Bahamas, that was just a little field trip for Dennis. He is still headed straight for my back yard and I can't gamble he will zig to the east just as he makes landfall like Ivan did. Ivan took a few shingles on the house and ruined the tin on my barn.
Thanks to everyone here. I'm a truck driver, stuck in a PA shop right now, and need as much info as possible to be able to get home in time to evacuate everyone. If this truck doesn't get fixed, the kids will be on their own this time and I don't like it one bit!!
God be with all in this monster's path.
Lu


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
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Re: Dennis and Cuba [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #39804 - Fri Jul 08 2005 10:33 AM

I'm 100 percent positive that CUBA will be affected by Dennis

Looks like key west will be windy and wet with Dennis passing just to the West.


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bn765
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 60
Re: Dennis and Cuba [Re: tornado00]
      #39805 - Fri Jul 08 2005 10:33 AM

Any guesses on what the winds speed will be at the 11 am update?

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Terry Johnson
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 11
Loc: Tarpon Springs, FL
Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery [Re: G. J.]
      #39806 - Fri Jul 08 2005 10:34 AM

Gitmo is surrounded on the 3 sides by mountain ranges to the north and east and west and is fairly impervious to storms north of those mountains. I was stationed there from 1973-1976 and weathered Hurricanes Caroline and Eloise. Both, however tracked north of the base and we only got T.S winds and a hell of a lot of rain. Despite only those wind levels, I had rain coming in the cinder block walls of the barracks. I know they have improved things there somewhat since my stay, but being on the N.E side of this one, leads me to believe that they got a terrific surge coming into that bay from the south and the mountains could not help with breaking up the wind. I, too, am very interested in how they fared.

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