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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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meto
Weather Guru


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Re: Model's [Re: Ron Basso]
      #47375 - Wed Aug 10 2005 08:33 PM

as i posted, the 11 am discusion said track would likely shift more west and south. on the 5 pm advisory.

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Todd
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Re: Model's [Re: meto]
      #47376 - Wed Aug 10 2005 08:37 PM

NRL has latest track out now #25

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none
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Re: Model's [Re: Todd]
      #47380 - Wed Aug 10 2005 08:41 PM

Do you think you give give out a link for that todd? thanks!

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Brad in Miami
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Re: Model's [Re: Ron Basso]
      #47382 - Wed Aug 10 2005 08:42 PM

Ron:

The 12Z run is 8am EST, I believe. So that model was incorporated into the NHC's 11 am forecast; it does not represent a model shift SINCE that forecast (or since 8 am).


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MapMaster
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Re: What will they say at 5pm [Re: LoisCane]
      #47383 - Wed Aug 10 2005 08:46 PM

As I said, time and data can change my mind....I now think Irene, the fighter, will continue with us and possibly become a threat somewhere....se coast to points north.

Satellite presentation is improving....

MM


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Todd
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Re: Model's [Re: none]
      #47384 - Wed Aug 10 2005 08:47 PM

It's the NRL Monterey .. FYI..the good links are near the bottom of the main page.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html



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Ed in Va
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Re: Model's [Re: Todd]
      #47385 - Wed Aug 10 2005 08:48 PM

5:00 discussion out:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200509.disc.html

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
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Re: Model's [Re: Todd]
      #47386 - Wed Aug 10 2005 08:49 PM

send me that link please

--------------------
I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances


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LI Phil
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Irene Still A TD @ 5:00 [Re: Todd]
      #47387 - Wed Aug 10 2005 08:51 PM

she's still a TD...1745 T #'s still 2.0/2.0...don't look for her to become a TS again until tomorrow...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Big Kahuna
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Re: Irene Still A TD @ 5:00 [Re: LI Phil]
      #47388 - Wed Aug 10 2005 09:13 PM

In the NHC 5PM discussion it stated that:
"SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA AND THE MOST RECENT ODT VALUES...SUGGESTING THAT IRENE IS VERY NEAR REGAINING TROPICAL STORM STATUS. HOWEVER...UNTIL SOME CENTRAL CONVECTION PERSISTS... THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT .

Is this S.O.P.?


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Bloodstar
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Re: Irene Still A TD @ 5:00 [Re: Big Kahuna]
      #47389 - Wed Aug 10 2005 09:22 PM

I heart Forecaster Stewart discussions. His explanations of why and how always help give me insight and a peek into some of the tendencies that storms have. I probably would have bumped it back to a tropical storm status, but I see the logic in why it would be prudent to wait another 6 hours. After all, the storm has shown signs of life and sputtered down before. So some consistancy before giving it back it's storm status does make sense.

I still really don't know what to expect from Irene, and I'm leery of even trying to project out where it'll end up. So, I'm going to take a pass on this one and just watch and learn

-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student


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hurricane_freak
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Re: Irene Still A TD @ 5:00 [Re: Big Kahuna]
      #47390 - Wed Aug 10 2005 09:22 PM

Irene looks a pretty good- shud be up to TS IMO later tonite

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Brad in Miami
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Re: Irene Still A TD @ 5:00 [Re: Big Kahuna]
      #47391 - Wed Aug 10 2005 09:24 PM

Confused what you mean, Big Kahuna. With varying satellite estimates (and even without them), it's always a judgment call. Satellite estimates are one tool, but others include QuikScat (still inconclusive here); the amount of sustained convection, particularly near the center of circulation; and how well-defined the LLC is.

Again, I still can't see one dominant, well-defined center in the satellite imagery - can't tell if there are multiple centers, if the center keeps re-forming, if there is no low-level center (yes, it's possible, although not likely, this is technically just an incredibly good-looking wave) - so I agree with the NHC's call. Others will disagree, and I think several different calls could be supported in this case.


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BillD
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Re: Irene Still A TD @ 5:00 [Re: Big Kahuna]
      #47393 - Wed Aug 10 2005 10:05 PM

Yes it is. The NHC's forecasts are not moment to moment (while a lot of what goes on here is). Their forecasts are based on trends and long term changes. So it is not unusual to postpone something 4, 8,, 24 hours or more to make sure that whatever it is they are looking at is not just a short term feature. Irene has been very interesting to watch, lots of factors involved, and the surrounding environment is in a constant state of change, and will be for a while.

Bill


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crpeavley
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Re: Irene's unpredictability [Re: Ron Basso]
      #47395 - Wed Aug 10 2005 10:21 PM

I am curious why the latest HPC Discussion makes a point to mention the building ridge that should steer Irene on a more sly track in the long term and wherever you read on forums, and especially the computer models, this is not reflected.

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Clark
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Re: Irene's unpredictability [Re: crpeavley]
      #47398 - Wed Aug 10 2005 10:30 PM

crpeavley -- a building ridge should keep Irene moving more towards the west than towards the north through time. I think everyone is picking up on that, from the NHC on down, but perhaps not quite to the degree that HPC might be. It is the HPC's job to put out long-range forecasts, including when a tropical cyclone may impact things, so their thinking is usually the first you'll see from an 'official' source that talks about landfall regions. They often disagree with the NHC, and vice versa, as always happens with different forecasters; this isn't necessarily a bad thing. Really, the time frame they are talking about right now is beyond the NHC forecast period and more towards the long range (5-7 days), where most forecasters try to shy away from when it comes to tropical cyclone forecasts. It's just a wait-and-see thing right now, but not at all inconsistent with what the general consensus seems to be with this storm.

Saw the MM5 posting before about the track, followed by the wind plot -- I'm not sure how much stock I'd put in the intensity forecasts right now. With the change to the convective parameterization in the model, we tried to get rid of the spurious vortex development near Central America, something that appears to be working. Unfortunately, in this change, we weaken the ability for the model to recognize and grow shallow cumulus clouds/convection; these are important in transferring energy to the large scales and in the development of a storm beyond a minimal TS. There is still such a scheme in there, it is just not as sophisticated. So, while it remains to be seen as to whether or not this is a true forecast of intensity or a conservative forecast, I would tend to think it is at least slightly the former and thus, as always, should be treated with caution.


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Ron Basso
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Re: Model's [Re: Brad in Miami]
      #47399 - Wed Aug 10 2005 10:30 PM

Quote:

Ron:

The 12Z run is 8am EST, I believe. So that model was incorporated into the NHC's 11 am forecast; it does not represent a model shift SINCE that forecast (or since 8 am).




Brad:

My point was it represented a southward shift from the previous 06Z FSUmm5 run. Since the MM5 is experimental (correct me if I mistate Clark), it is not part of the NHC's suite of models used in their forecasting. The NHC also uses the FSU super-ensemble, which is not available to the public.

--------------------
RJB


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Clark
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Re: Model's [Re: Ron Basso]
      #47403 - Wed Aug 10 2005 10:41 PM

Ron -- yes, the MM5 is an experimental model. Some forecasters from NHC & TAFB have looked at the output from time to time, but it is not incorporated in the NHC track guidance suite and they do not use it in making operational forecasts. Part of that is the experimental nature, while another part of it is when it comes out -- for instance, the 12Z run isn't finished until about 6pm ET/22z, largely because of computing power and needing the 12Z GFS analysis to start the model off of (which itself isn't available until 16z or so). We've got some big plans for it, but those are in the long term (next 5 years) moreso than anything and will require more computer power than we have right now.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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