Big Kahuna
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 52
Loc: DeLand, Florida
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This link will help you decode the message. They are making three flights today.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml
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mikeG
Unregistered
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noaa p-3 picture from coast rica last month......HRD research plane....
picture p-3
study hurricanes.....depends on what HRD mission is planned....SFC-10,000ft or a SMRF....
G-IV is a gulfstream jet.....high alt flights....most of time around hurricanes....
here's a look at what they did with emily this year....gives you an idea..
emily 20050717N1 Aircraft 49RF
i think the gulfstream has only made one eyewall penetration in its history..
picture g-iv
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mikeG
Unregistered
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http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/jetgen.html
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Posts: 489
Loc:
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Color me ridge impaired. On this link, is the orange band the ridge? Will that keep Irene moving out to sea? It looks like it's breaking down on the eastern edge. ??
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgeir3.html
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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crpeavley
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 26
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Can you post the link where you obtain this recon info, please?
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Todd
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 30
Loc: Havelock, NC(34.89n76.92w)
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http://www.hurricanehunters.com/wxdata.htm
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john03
Unregistered
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URNT12 KNHC 122012
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/19:29:10Z
B. 28 deg 31 min N
067 deg 12 min W
C. 850 mb 1409 m
D. 65 kt
E. 41 deg 039 nm
F. 141 deg 061 kt
G. 042 deg 042 nm
H. EXTRAP 997 mb
I. 13 C/ 1526 m
J. 21 C/ 1523 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C80
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF307 0109A IRENE OB 10
MAX FL WIND 62 KT E QUAD 18:50:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
GOOD RADAR SIGNATURE
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 365
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Note that in that latest vortex message, maximum surface winds are estimated at 65 kt, which is hurricane force. The might not upgrade based on that fact, but there's a chance.
Glad to see the 80 nm measurement was an error; that just didn't make sense.
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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I believe this is why JB argued for a NC or East Coast hit- this ridge will either force Irene westward onto shore- or- it can very well ease its movement-or stop it dead in its tracks depending how strong the ridge will hold- or even force Irene to the NE- following the UKMET model.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
Edited by rmbjoe1954 (Fri Aug 12 2005 08:27 PM)
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 365
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Something interesting in the 11 am package: Jacksonville shows up on the probability table with a small (I think 2%) chance of the eye passing within 65 nm within 72 hours. However, in the experimental wind probability product, Jacksonville is not listed with regards to any winds - 34 kt or higher.
This doesn't mean much, because the 2% odds of a 65 nm "brush" might not translate into a 2% chance of getting 34 kt winds, or the two products might be based on different computer output. But I find it interesting and wonder which of those two possibilities, or if something else, accounts for that.
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margie_visiting
Unregistered
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Quote:
on outbound leg
MF28.0n M066.6w MF 064kts \ fl winds
Those are max flight level winds. Est max surface winds 60kt.
Recon data shows a small increase since the 11am advisory (about 55kt). Still not hurricane strength.
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margie_visiting
Unregistered
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Well, just to spite me for posting, I suppose, I'm just seeing latest recon msg shows 65kt...which nudges just up to hurricane strength.
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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru
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Posts: 116
Loc: Mobile,Alabama
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Quote:
Well, just to spite me for posting, I suppose, I'm just seeing latest recon msg shows 65kt...which nudges just up to hurricane strength.
Here are the latest Recon info i have
URNT12 KNHC 122012
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/19:29:10Z
B. 28 DEG 31 MIN N
067 DEG 12 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1409 M
D. 65 KT
E. 41 DEG 039 NM
F. 141 DEG 061 KT
G. 042 DEG 042 NM
H. EXTRAP 997 MB
I. 13 C/ 1526 M
J. 21 C/ 1523 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C80
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 NM
P. AF307 0109A IRENE OB 10
MAX FL WIND 62 KT E QUAD 18:50:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
GOOD RADAR SIGNATURE
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mikeG
Unregistered
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URNT12 KNHC 122039
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/20:23:10Z
B. 28 deg 32 min N
067 deg 15 min W
C. 850 mb 1405 m
D. 65 kt
E. 140 deg 029 nm
F. 231 deg 075 kt
G. 140 deg 034 nm
H. 997 mb
I. 16 C/ 1523 m
J. 20 C/ 1525 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. E09/80/60
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF307 0109A IRENE OB 15
MAX FL WIND 75 KT SE QUAD 20:12:20 Z
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Todd
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 30
Loc: Havelock, NC(34.89n76.92w)
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Well ... has just updated to #33 .. movement 310 at 9 for the last 6 hours ..
What's funny is the time of 1800z and obs based on satellite and still classified as TS. Don't know if it's official
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DavidP
Unregistered
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So its moved West .3 degrees in the last 5 hours
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NONAME
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
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1012 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY
ALONG 39W. THE BROAD CENTER OF THE LOW IS NEAR 11N41W AND IS
MOVING WNW 10-15. THIS IS A COMPLEX DISTURBANCE WITH A LOW/MID-
LEVEL CENTER SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE NEAR 12N42W WITH ANOTHER
LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE E SIDE NEAR 12N39W. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A LARGE CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH BUOYS
REPORTING WINDS OF 20-25 KT. THE LOW HAS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM WATER NEAR 83F... LIGHT
SHEAR... AND IT SEEMS TO BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO AVOID
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE
OF BANDING THOUGH CONVECTION HAS FADED A BIT THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 40W-45W.
That is really intresting got any ideals one it mets.
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mikeG
Unregistered
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jim cantore will be in punta gorda sat.
one year after
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mikeG
Unregistered
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recon reports an eye now
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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so what do poeple think Irene is out fot he picture, if your in "the cone" should you still watch her, is there any evidence that would show the turn out to sea changing to the turn into land?
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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