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Gulf area up to 60% chance for weak development. A new Atlantic system is now up with a 20% chance for development, FL east coast and GA coast should watch for mid-late this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 290 (Idalia) , Major: 290 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 290 (Idalia) Major: 290 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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native
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Re: Movement [Re: MikeC]
      #49308 - Thu Aug 25 2005 02:21 AM

Hope this helps for those in the "area"

Link to what is open and what is closed (so far)
www2.wsvn.com/news/articles/extra/MIA2931/


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damejune2
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Re: Movement [Re: MikeC]
      #49310 - Thu Aug 25 2005 02:22 AM

TWC is saying it will most likely take 24-36 hours for Katrina to get from the east coast to the west coast. I understand that there could be some major flooding but what about wind? As i understand it, when a storm moves over land and for long periods of time due to slow forward speed, wouldn't it lose some of it's wind? I know there is no terrain to really impede the storm, but it still won't have the warm water feeding it. So if it takes almost two days to cross the state does that mean by the time it gets near me (Manatee County, north of Sarasota) the winds should at or below tropical storm strength? Also, TWC's path takes it pretty damn close to my area whereas the NHC and some of the models have it exiting around the FT Myers/Naples area. Any thoughts on this? You can PM if you wish....

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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JG
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Re: Movement [Re: MikeC]
      #49311 - Thu Aug 25 2005 02:22 AM

Quote:

The CDO is aligned with the circulation center, the bands are there, the elliptical elongation east to west is going away. The traces of dry air between the bands are starting to disappear. Temperatures in the water are high, shear is low. Forward movement is slowing. Tomorrow is going to be highly interesting. I'd prepare for a category 2 tomorrow, even if it doesn't make it that high. Listen to local media and stay updated if you are in Palm Beach or Broward counties.

I'm supposed to be doing work in Lee county Friday through saturday on the west coast, so believe me I'm watching this very close.




I manage a small fleet of drivers who work in Lee and Collier County, so I'm in the same boat. If you're thinking about a Cat 2 possibly at the intial landfall, should I prep for a Cat 1 on the West Coast in Lee and Collier? My concern is it stalls out or that it moves NW after the intial landfall. The models are everywhere and don't seem to be much help, or is that my scientific ignorance on this subject showing?


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jlauderdal
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Re: Movement [Re: MikeC]
      #49312 - Thu Aug 25 2005 02:24 AM

Quote:

The CDO is aligned with the circulation center, the bands are there, the elliptical elongation east to west is going away. The traces of dry air between the bands are starting to disappear. Temperatures in the water are high, shear is low. Forward movement is slowing. Tomorrow is going to be highly interesting. I'd prepare for a category 2 tomorrow, even if it doesn't make it that high. Listen to local media and stay updated if you are in Palm Beach or Broward counties.

I'm supposed to be doing work in Lee county Friday through saturday on the west coast, so believe me I'm watching this very close.




I can report from NE FLL that the only preps I have seen are lines at the gas station. If this thing goes to a two then the term rush to completion will be in full effect here tomorrow.


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Movement [Re: JG]
      #49313 - Thu Aug 25 2005 02:24 AM

TWOAT 1030PM EDT IS OUT

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...AS IT MOVES TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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weatherwatcher2
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Re: Movement [Re: damejune2]
      #49314 - Thu Aug 25 2005 02:30 AM

im just as curious as you are im also in Manatee County. I dont think it wil be too bad by the time it gets to our coast but you never know.. I still am in agreement with scottsvb that it will exit between venice and clearwater.

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Old Sailor
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Re: Movement [Re: jlauderdal]
      #49316 - Thu Aug 25 2005 02:33 AM

Just looked at latest Model runs at secure Naval Mil site which I still have access to. They show change 2 seem kind of wacked out maybe reason not updated yet other 2 now more in agreement with NHC track, Sorry can't show the Graph can' copy it or paste it.

Dave


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Big Red Machine
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Re: Movement [Re: weatherwatcher2]
      #49317 - Thu Aug 25 2005 02:34 AM

Quote:

im just as curious as you are im also in Manatee County. I dont think it wil be too bad by the time it gets to our coast but you never know.. I still am in agreement with scottsvb that it will exit between venice and clearwater.




Perhaps, but the model plots all seem to be coming into an agreement of the system sliding up the southwest coast. It may be far enough west not to cause many problems by the time it gets up to my neck of the woods in the TB area, but for ya'll from Collier-Sarasota/Manatee it looks awfully close.
Plots Here: http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png


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Steve H1
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Re: Movement [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #49318 - Thu Aug 25 2005 02:35 AM

So I take it from the now west moving storm that the worst we can expect in southern Brevard is breezy conditions? Seems as the any northward movement has ceased, and a continued west motion should prevail until it reaches the GOM?

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WXMAN RICHIE
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Preparations [Re: MikeC]
      #49319 - Thu Aug 25 2005 02:40 AM

I know that absolutely no one is preparing for a cat 2 hurricane here. They aren't even preparing for a cat 1. Of course this even includes me, because my shutters are still in the garage. I have not seen a single home putting up shutters. The weather won't be the best tomorrow for doing it either. Schools here are actually open until early afternoon, that is crazy. There might be some time early in the morning, but most people will be at work or school. My pressure has slowly risen from 6:30 pm until now from 29.86" to 29.91". I think this is in reference to the high building in somewhat from the north. Therefore, the storm took that sharp left earlier this evening.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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crpeavley
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Re: Katrina Forms... Hurricane Watches up for East Coast of Florida Vero South *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: MikeC]
      #49320 - Thu Aug 25 2005 02:40 AM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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susieq
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Re: Preparations [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #49323 - Thu Aug 25 2005 02:41 AM

The 11:00 is out: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200512_5day.html

--------------------
Gulf Breeze girl still not over Ivan


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native
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Re: Katrina Forms... Hurricane Watches up for East Coast of Florida Vero South [Re: crpeavley]
      #49324 - Thu Aug 25 2005 02:41 AM

11pm update is in

WTNT32 KNHC 250237
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM Katrina ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

...KATRINA HEADING WESTWARD FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...HURRICANE WARNINGS
IN EFFECT...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA
CITY...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Preparations [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #49325 - Thu Aug 25 2005 02:44 AM

KATRINA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
MOTION WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF Katrina INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. Katrina IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY BEFORE
REACHING THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA EAST COAST. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE IS EXPECTED TO REACH Katrina IN A FEW HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER. SETTLEMENT POINT ON GRAN BAHAMA ISLAND JUST
REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 43 MPH...69 KM/HR.

full Advisory here:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/250237.shtml

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.


Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 25 2005 02:55 AM)


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scottsvb
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Re: Preparations [Re: danielw]
      #49326 - Thu Aug 25 2005 02:46 AM

Yeah I posted a couple days back it will exit around Venice or just south of there.2nd landfall will be from just N of clearwater- Cross city.. big area but still 4 days out.....Cat 3.

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HanKFranK
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Re: Movement [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #49327 - Thu Aug 25 2005 02:47 AM

a vigorous tropical wave with a closed low and deep convection, mind you.
gonna keep the Katrina idea at cat 1, 980-984mb, boca raton area. it still looks good so far.. i see the potential for more strengthening but seems more likely to do less as of now.
the second hit at al/ms is out to lunch based on the model shifts.. still more than 3 days out so i don't feel too bad relocating. i'll just go with 'what clark said'. i'm thinking it will be stronger, is the only difference. earlier idea, with more open ocean around was a cat 3. will just keep it there for now, but adjust based on the initial landfall intensity.. when that happens.
97L has kept its center ahead of the convection, extended out into the big pool of saharan air in the eastern/central atlantic. there's a band of zonal westerlies at and just north of the low that is keeping the deep convection peeled back.. and less impressive than earlier. even though it's been a closed nonfrontal low over the tropics generating winds near or at gale force, it may never be classified. i don't see the shear profile changing that much in the coming days.
HF 0247z25august


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Model Runs [Re: HanKFranK]
      #49328 - Thu Aug 25 2005 02:54 AM

This forecast is rather difficult since one of the more
reliable models...the GFS...shows that the cyclone barely touches
the East Coast of Florida before moving northward....while the
outstanding GFDL moves Katrina south of due west across extreme
South Florida and the Keys as a very intense hurricane. The GFDL
scenario would be very dangerous for South Florida. This appears to
be unrealistic at this time but because of the good past
performance of this model...we must pay close attention to future
model runs.


From the discussion.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/250243.shtml? ~danielw

Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 25 2005 02:57 AM)


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ralphfl
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Re: Movement [Re: HanKFranK]
      #49329 - Thu Aug 25 2005 02:56 AM

The latest NOGAPS takes it close to ala LA so they are not going to use that one at all? has done good so far this year.

It is going west already which is in line with the Gdfl and NOGAPS so im not sold on this going out above venice.I would prefer it but don't see it.


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Ryan
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Katrina [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #49332 - Thu Aug 25 2005 02:59 AM

according to TWC and www.wunderground.com i am going to say West Palm Beach Area should prepare for a cat 1-minimal cat 2 storm.

good luck MTV VMA's in Miami..bumer..

and hope for the best floridians.

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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LI Phil
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NEW THREAD [Re: Ryan]
      #49334 - Thu Aug 25 2005 03:01 AM

Mike has posted a new thread...

please place all replies there...thanks!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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