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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Re: NWS Miami [Re: sprghill]
      #49650 - Thu Aug 25 2005 07:42 PM

Quote:

why are most of the models moving more west now after it leaves florida




Models take into account current conditions throughout many layers of the atmosphere on both a global and local scale. These conditions change, and when a previous model run's +6 hour prediction doesn't match what happens 6 hours after the run, then the run 6 hours later will be different. What you are seeing is the models continually updating themselves, and thus pushing the storm further west, based on differences between actual conditions and what they had prediction the conditions would be.

If you want to read up on how the various tropical models work, take a look here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutmodels.shtml

Frankly, hurricanes are very erratic systems, and very difficult for models to predict. Think of them as a spinning top that doesn't always go where you think it should.

A lot of this comes back to the action principle (also known as the Lagrangian). Any system will take the path of least action. Action includes energy and momentum. The problem is understanding what the conditions that effect the energy and momentum of a hurricane are, and accurately detecting them in the atmosphere. While dynamical models are good on normal systems, hurricanes just cause problems sometimes .


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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up Vero South to Florida City [Re: MikeC]
      #49651 - Thu Aug 25 2005 07:44 PM

Dont expect this system to go that far west there is a high pressure building off the coast of texas so i think the computer models are going to far west. I agree with the NHC model which takes it more to the east then the other ones.

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: NWS Miami [Re: Random Chaos]
      #49652 - Thu Aug 25 2005 07:44 PM

some models have shifted quite west with three now aiming at the MS/AL line... this is quite a change from just 12 hours ago.. I wonder what they are seeing that would cause such a change.... I would imagine that the 5 day forecast would also reflect a minor shift to the left at 5:00 pm.... if IF IFIFIFIF this comes to fruition this could be setting up for a significant tropical cyclone for the northern gulf coast due to the extended time over the GOM and high SSTs... interesting development to say the least... but you all know that its probably going to change over time.... not quite ready to test out them brand new storm shutters I just built...

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ralphfl
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up Vero South to Florida City [Re: hurricane expert]
      #49653 - Thu Aug 25 2005 07:47 PM

Quote:

Dont expect this system to go that far west there is a high pressure building off the coast of texas so i think the computer models are going to far west. I agree with the NHC model which takes it more to the east then the other ones.





the 5PM is not out yet wait till it comes out and see if they move it west more or keep it the same util then you just don't know.


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Rabbit
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up Vero South to Florida City [Re: hurricane expert]
      #49654 - Thu Aug 25 2005 07:49 PM

High pressure turns clockwise--if there is one over Texas that would push it west, not north

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Hurricane Katrina [Re: ralphfl]
      #49655 - Thu Aug 25 2005 07:50 PM

Hurricane Katrina is now official:

Full text: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT2+shtml/251940.shtml

HURRICANE Katrina TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
335 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTS AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATES
THAT TROPICAL STORM Katrina HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A HURRICANE...


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HCW
Storm Tracker


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Re: NWS Miami [Re: rhendryx]
      #49656 - Thu Aug 25 2005 07:50 PM

velocity on my level 3 radar program is showing 60KT+ winds in the southern eyewall.

http://www.hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php?p=39774#post39774


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Joe
Storm Tracker


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Re: NWS Miami [Re: HCW]
      #49659 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:00 PM

Much talk about the westward shift in the models this afternoon and for good reason. Although I doubt there is any major change in the track at 5pm as this is really the first run models have shifted to the west. I would much rather wait and see some consistency in the models before jumping to far west. Also NOAA9 high altitude aircraft is out there flying around now and this data will be put into the the 0z runs this evening, and may give a better read of the steering currents.

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Big Kahuna
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Hurricane Katrina [Re: Random Chaos]
      #49661 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:01 PM

I just checked the recon vortex date message and its still stuck on 1718z. You'd think they would update it a little faster....

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OcalaKT
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Re: NWS Miami [Re: ralphfl]
      #49662 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:03 PM

Looking at the Miami radar loop, it looks to me like it is making land fall right now. If I am reading this right, and the eye is the black area in the center, looks to be hitting Fort Lauderdale.

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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru


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Re: HURRICANE [Re: HCW]
      #49663 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:03 PM

It's official. Hurricane Katrina is born.

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Re: NWS Miami [Re: OcalaKT]
      #49664 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:07 PM

Quote:

Looking at the Miami radar loop, it looks to me like it is making land fall right now. If I am reading this right, and the eye is the black area in the center, looks to be hitting Fort Lauderdale.




No, that black area is a dry air infusion to the east of the eye. The eye is between the A and the U in Lauderdale.

--RC


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Rabbit
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Re: HURRICANE [Re: HURRICANELONNY]
      #49666 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:09 PM

do you know where i can find the 4pm position update without it showing the 2pm one instead?

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OcalaKT
Weather Watcher


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Re: HURRICANE [Re: Rabbit]
      #49667 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:14 PM

ZCZC MIATCEAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE Katrina TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

AT 4 PM EDT...2000Z... THE CENTER OF RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE
KATRINA WAS ESTIMATED BY NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA... AS
WELL NOAA DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM MIAMI...TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 26.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST... OR ABOUT 25 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF
FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA AND ABOUT 25 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BOCA
RATON FLORIDA.

FORECASTER STEWART


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: NWS Miami [Re: rhendryx]
      #49668 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:17 PM

The spaghetti runs use easily available text output. The NOGAPS model (run by the Navy) does not do that for tropical cyclone tracking. Scripts must be run to have that output and usually, it's too much work for those creating those plots. NOGAPS has been one of the best models for tropical storms for the past few years and certainly bears credence...just because no one is really talking about it doesn't mean that much. Trust me when I say that the NHC is very much using it.

Creating a new thread shortly. Let's all move on over there.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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ralphfl
Weather Master


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Re: HURRICANE [Re: OcalaKT]
      #49669 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:17 PM

for the guy who wanted the new NOGAPS it is on this new 12Z run and it also is taking it more west.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/late2.png


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rhendryx
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Re: HURRICANE [Re: ralphfl]
      #49671 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:21 PM

Many thanks to clark, ralphfl and scott! Bob

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ralphfl
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Re: HURRICANE [Re: rhendryx]
      #49673 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:22 PM

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png

New 18Z runs are out


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Re: NWS Miami [Re: Clark]
      #49674 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:23 PM

And off to the New Thread

Edited by Random Chaos (Thu Aug 25 2005 08:23 PM)


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


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FSU [Re: ralphfl]
      #49680 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:34 PM

EDIT:moved this post to new thread.

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back

Edited by Ryan (Thu Aug 25 2005 08:36 PM)


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