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Western Gulf and NW Caribbean increasingly favored for development potential over the next week or so.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 290 (Idalia) , Major: 290 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 290 (Idalia) Major: 290 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


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Re: down to ophelia [Re: Rabbit]
      #54522 - Sat Sep 10 2005 05:25 PM

It would be easier for us amateur observers to see what was going on and figure things out if the satellite would stop doing the tango.
I am getting calls from family and extended family from the Charleston area and they are not under mandatory evacuations yet but I have been advising them to evacuate now if they are going to need to in the future, because of traffic concerns.
My question is that I have been looking at the MSLP loops and I am wondering what is going to keep the center from drifting south again. It looks to me like the pressures to the north are higher than the pressures to the south, hence (big fancy word) the center should be willing to take the easier softer way. Any commentary appreciated. Ignoring it is ok too

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scottsvb
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Re: down to ophelia [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #54523 - Sat Sep 10 2005 05:37 PM

Well my offical forecast for landfall might be delayed cause the high is orientated more N-S and could drive the system more Sor SW tonight into tomorow then expected. Im not saying this will be outside the models and hit florida, but there is a slight chance this might get pushed far enough back south that it will turn w and threaten NE florida or SE Georgia. That my forecast? Not really, mine is actually further east then the global models.. I see the ridge reforming more over the western atlantic early next week pushing her NNE and possibly threaten the outerbanks and then Long Island and New England. Right now New England is more then 3 days out but landfall looks right between eastern longIsland and the cape by Weds or Thurs. Im on the farthest east of the model consensus but I wouldnt be surprised if they swing around to this. SSW-NNE position of the ridge will push this then another trough will swing into the great lakes the middle of this week ahead.
Anyways with the slight thought on Florida-Georgia thing is there is more of a NNE-SSW flow then what the models show and also the upper low should be helping induce a more SSW motion later tonight into Sunday.
Will make offical 3 day landfall later tomorrow or Monday unless the treat to the SE increases.

Edited by scottsvb (Sat Sep 10 2005 05:38 PM)


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HCW
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Re: down to ophelia [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #54524 - Sat Sep 10 2005 05:44 PM

2 PM EDT position...31.7 N... 76.2 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 3 mph. Maximum sustained winds...80 mph.
Minimum central pressure...977 mb.

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CoalCracker
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Re: down to ophelia [Re: scottsvb]
      #54525 - Sat Sep 10 2005 06:06 PM

Scott,

Don't know about your prog but the latest models at Weather Underground have all swung north and east of the NHC 11 AM forecast path. Be interesting to see the 5 PM update. Is there still a chance this lady will miss the CONUS? Hope so.


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scottsvb
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Re: down to ophelia [Re: CoalCracker]
      #54526 - Sat Sep 10 2005 07:16 PM

It defidently could miss. My forcast for landfall is 5 days out so I can change it. NHC changes every 6 hours, I usually like todo 72hr. Anything more then that is speculations. Just like the more s drift tonight and tomorrow.

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Steve H1
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Re: down to ophelia [Re: CoalCracker]
      #54527 - Sat Sep 10 2005 07:17 PM

Interesting tidbit from the HPC today:


OPHELIA REMAINS A BIG QUESTION MARK... W/TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE
POSITIVE ANOMALY ACRS QUEBEC SLIGHTLY FAVORING A NEGATIVE ANOMALY
NR THE BAHAMAS...IMPLYING THERE IS A CHANCE OPHELIA COULD CONTINUE
TO LINGER/LOOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST OR MID ATL SIMILAR TO DAWN
/1972/...DORIA /1967/...AND GINNY /1963/. THIS IDEA IS SHOWN
VIVIDLY IN THE 18Z NCEP ENSMEAN...AND TO SOME DEGREE IN THE 00Z
NCEP ENSMEAN. FOLLOWED TPC GUIDANCE...AS ALWAYS...BUT IT IS PSBL
THAT THE LANDFALL/IMPACTS UPON THE MID ATL AND SOUTHEAST COULD BE
DELAYED FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY SHOWN AND VERY POSSIBLY MUCH
FARTHER NORTH AS ALL LATEST MODELS...12Z GFS/CANADIAN/NOGAPS/UKMET
AND ECMWF TAKE AIM AT ERN NC BY DAY 4 WED WITH GFDL ALSO SHOWING A
STRONG SHIFT NWD... SEE TPC DISCUSSIONS AND WARNINGS.

And Conversely very much south as well with the height anomalies.


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Keith234
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Re: down to ophelia [Re: scottsvb]
      #54528 - Sat Sep 10 2005 07:19 PM

This is what I think too...The NOGAPS, CMC, and GFS have the anticyclonic loop with the turn norhtward and eastward. SC, NC, and NY look like the states that will be effected. I feel the NHC is relying to heavily on the GFDL, but that's just me.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
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CoalCracker
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Re: down to ophelia [Re: Steve H1]
      #54529 - Sat Sep 10 2005 07:42 PM

Steve,

For the heck of it I checked the paths of Dawn, Doria, and Ginny. If Ophelia becomes a contortionist like her three older sisters, by the time she decides where she wants to go, I'll have received my first Social Security check!! Okay by me if she wants to see the Atlantic for a while as long as she only bothers the fishes.


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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


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Re: down to ophelia [Re: CoalCracker]
      #54530 - Sat Sep 10 2005 08:57 PM

Yeah, I agree. The 12Z GFS has her back to about 30N/72W in 8/9 days after visiting near the Jersey shore

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Link to Storms From Previous Years [Re: Steve H1]
      #54531 - Sat Sep 10 2005 09:21 PM

Interesting tidbit indeed - thanks! I've added a link to the Unisys table of storms from previous years to the General Links at the bottom of the Main Page. I use this link frequently and have been meaning to add it for quite some time. Appreciate the reminder.
Cheers,
ED


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Ryan
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Re: Link to Storms From Previous Years [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #54534 - Sun Sep 11 2005 03:08 AM

can someone PM me with JB's forecast on Ohelia?

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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Re: Link to Storms From Previous Years [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #54535 - Sun Sep 11 2005 03:10 AM

Been a quiet night on the boards...

Ophelia's just sitting there spinning again - stalled. NHC 11pm says is now nearly stationary. Their forcast takes her into the NC coast, but looking at the model graphs they seem to be losing their convergence, with now almost a 180 degree spread in path again...from South Carolina to due eastward. The bulk of the models show Ophelia heading north or northeast now.

I think Steve's post (quote of HPC) is very accurate...we have (a) no clue what Ophelia will really do and (b) she's gone loop and stall happy!


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Ryan
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Re: Link to Storms From Previous Years [Re: Random Chaos]
      #54536 - Sun Sep 11 2005 03:14 AM

just looked at NOGAPS models...that kind ofscares me they have it hitting coastal NC going up the coast and making a 2nd landfall where...on the island...should i been worried because someone before said that NHC has been really dependent on NOGAPS lately.

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Link to Storms From Previous Years [Re: Ryan]
      #54537 - Sun Sep 11 2005 04:00 AM

I believe it was GuppieGrouper who made reference to Ophelia in Shakespeare's Hamlet a day or so ago. While noodling around in my old college text (hey, I had to do something to kill time before the next model runs), I came across a line from Horatio, Hamlet's close friend, that I thought was appropriate given the way the models are flip-flopping on this storm. Also works for those of us trying to guess her eventual path.
"SHE MAY STREW DANGEROUS CONJECTURES IN ILL-BREEDING MINDS."


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traceyd
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Re: Link to Storms From Previous Years [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #54538 - Sun Sep 11 2005 04:11 AM

can someone explain why the experts don't think that this ridge, which looks very strong from north to south, will not push "O" to the south with it? Looking at the water vapor images, it looks like the convection to the north of it which is heading south may push "O" to the south also. Looking at the water vapor images what is making them forecast a turn to the west then northwest? I am sooooooooo confused.

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Jekyhe904
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Re: Link to Storms From Previous Years [Re: traceyd]
      #54542 - Sun Sep 11 2005 05:21 AM

Here is a link for ya to the latest synopsis! http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm3.html I agree, why wont it go south, only thing I can figure is that the High to the east will be the dominant steer

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Re: Link to Storms From Previous Years [Re: traceyd]
      #54543 - Sun Sep 11 2005 12:44 PM

The latest recon actually shows it south of the previous position, so that's a good question. Why are no models and no experts mentioning a possible southern move?

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html


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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru


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Re: Link to Storms From Previous Years [Re: Random Chaos]
      #54544 - Sun Sep 11 2005 12:49 PM

I just heard on TWC it may miss the US but may brush the Outer Banks.

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WisconsinWill
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Re: Link to Storms From Previous Years [Re: Random Chaos]
      #54549 - Sun Sep 11 2005 02:48 PM

Quote:

The latest recon actually shows it south of the previous position, so that's a good question. Why are no models and no experts mentioning a possible southern move?

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html




Actually the NAM shows a looping track to the south and west, eventually making landfall south of Savannah in about 36 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/index_m.shtml

I think we can discard this solution since the NAM unrealistically weakens the ridge to the southeast of Ophelia (probably because the NAM is a regional model and this ridge is right on the edge of the model domain). The NAM
is also quicker in building a slightly stronger 500mb ridge north of Ophelia, and if that part of the forecast verifies, we could start seeing at least some westward component of motion in 18 to 24 hours.


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