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#93L now a small better defined circulation with deep convection set to come ashore N of Tampico, MX. Recon investigating. Still 40% odds.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 298 (Idalia) , Major: 298 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 298 (Idalia) Major: 298 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


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Re: O 95 96 [Re: HanKFranK]
      #54817 - Fri Sep 16 2005 10:54 PM

If something were to make it into the Gulf are we still looking at a possible landfall in Texas? I forgot what the reason was you said
that might could be a possibility.

the newer models are showing the ridge getting stronger and staying anchored more around texas, so that raises the possibility that it'd just run due west into mexico. still a few days out so the models can change. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Sep 17 2005 12:58 AM)


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Bloodstar
Moderator


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Loc: Tucson, AZ
should have a TD at 5am [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #54819 - Sat Sep 17 2005 03:15 AM

really.... the first sat images after the eclipse just look too good not to give it an upgrade at this point. if it's not upgraded at 5... I'll... I dunno... be very confused I suppose.

But whatever develops would have to take a *really* hard right turn to avoid the islands at this point. Hopefully they're paying attention down there....

-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student


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Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru


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Loc: BROWARD
Re: should have a TD at 5am [Re: Bloodstar]
      #54820 - Sat Sep 17 2005 06:53 AM

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion is out an hour early...
And you are almost 100% correct in your read.

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE...1008 MB LOW...IS CENTERED ABOUT 320 NM
E OF BARBADOS NEAR 12N54W MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE SURFACE LOW
HAS INTENSIFIED AND IS ABOUT TO BE UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION.


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


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Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: should have a TD at 5am [Re: Multi-Decadal Signal]
      #54821 - Sat Sep 17 2005 07:28 AM

95's outflow pattern is looking more impressive, especially in the southeast quadrant:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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ChessieStorm
Weather Watcher


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Loc: Spring Hill, Fla. (Hernando C...
We now have our 17th Depression [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #54822 - Sat Sep 17 2005 08:40 AM

NHC just released a special message around 8:30 a.m. indicating that the wave near the Windwards has become a tropical depression.

Any advisories and warnings could be issued at the 11 a.m. advisory.

Quote:

DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
820 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005

...SEVENTEENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMING EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL
WAVE ABOUT 370 MILES EAST OF BARBADOS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
AND THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORMING. THE FIRST ADVISORY ON
THE SYSTEM...POSSIBLY INCLUDING WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES...WILL BE ISSUED AT 11 AM AST...1500Z.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECASTER BEVEN




Edited by John C (Sat Sep 17 2005 09:04 AM)


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emackl
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Loc: Indianapolis
Re: We now have our 17th Depression [Re: ChessieStorm]
      #54823 - Sat Sep 17 2005 09:07 AM

So far all the models are tracking both systems away from Florida. Do you guys agree that that's the most likely scenerio? It's getting too active out there.

Thanks!


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


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Re: We now have our 17th Depression [Re: emackl]
      #54825 - Sat Sep 17 2005 09:12 AM

From my read none of the models show Florida having a problem. But, they have not passed us yet.....

The only reason I think we're OK is because they installed my new electric shutter yestaerday on my big window. Since I paid $6000 we'll never have a storm


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emackl
Storm Tracker


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Loc: Indianapolis
Re: We now have our 17th Depression [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #54826 - Sat Sep 17 2005 09:15 AM

Quote:

The only reason I think we're OK is because they installed my new electric shutter yestaerday on my big window. Since I paid $6000 we'll never have a storm




ROFL! That would make me feel much better if you were my next door neighbor!


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: We now have our 17th Depression [Re: emackl]
      #54828 - Sat Sep 17 2005 09:41 AM

Quote:

So far all the models are tracking both systems away from Florida. Do you guys agree that that's the most likely scenerio? It's getting too active out there.

Thanks!




uh.... at least one - and possibly 2 - of the models are tracking 96L into or just south of the Keys and then turning it northward. Long term that could indicate an impact in the Panhandle (where I am!).

The soon-to-be TD 17/Phillippe (Lyons on the weather channel was indicating that winds at the surface are already T.S. strength and his prediction was that the system would bypass T.D. status and go directly to T.S.) appears to be an island problem and then a fish spinner, hopefully. Although the models longer term I think turn it back to the west from what I have heard.

i'm wondering which models you're looking at. i haven't checked the dynamical ones, but the globals all pretty much show it zipping out into the gulf wsw towards mexico. i'll go take a look, but think you're mistaken. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Sep 17 2005 09:50 AM)


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emackl
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
Re: We now have our 17th Depression [Re: Hugh]
      #54831 - Sat Sep 17 2005 09:53 AM

What has me worried is most the models I see, (may be looking at the wrong ones) don't develop 95l till later and show it going well east of the islands. I can't see at this point how it won't be west of where they all have it gaining strength.

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: We now have our 17th Depression [Re: emackl]
      #54832 - Sat Sep 17 2005 10:00 AM

Quote:

What has me worried is most the models I see, (may be looking at the wrong ones) don't develop 95l till later and show it going well east of the islands. I can't see at this point how it won't be west of where they all have it gaining strength.




Well since it is already developing... you may be right... although the weather channel is still pointing out that the models have it moving north well east of the islands (which it is already nearing?).... and I don't see much northward movement of the clouds on visible imagery. I think the models are wrong on this one right now, which wouldn't be shocking since it's not yet fully developed.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Loc: Maryland
Re: We now have our 17th Depression [Re: Hugh]
      #54837 - Sat Sep 17 2005 10:38 AM

** NEW THREAD ***

[edited...old post moved to new thread...--RC]

Edited by Random Chaos (Sat Sep 17 2005 10:39 AM)


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