Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Frank...glad to see that you are ok. I am very sorry about your house. I can't imagine what you are going through right now. I have thought about your predicament during this whole time and am glad to see that you are ok. We've talked about these things for the past couple of years and I never thought we would see such a nasty event such as so soon. I wish only the best for you and your family. Just think, when you rebuild you will have an even better view of the Gulf since you will probably have to elevate up one more story now. Unbelieveable mother nature is.
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Lysis
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Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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Yes, I suppose, if a scenario as unlikley as that were to happen, it would just add insult to injury, hamper recovery efforts, etc... but, as you said, there is really nothing left to destroy. People will probably never want to live in the area ever again though, if something like that were to come to pass.
I may be able to give a rudimentary answer to an earlier question about the central pressure: there is a lot of variance with pressure versus wind speed to begin with, and you really have to look at the surrounding barometric pressure and see how the storm makes a difference in contrast.
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cheers
Edited by Lysis (Mon Sep 19 2005 12:56 AM)
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k___g
Weather Guru
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Posts: 110
Loc: Leesburg, FL
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glad you are still here to speak about it. I can't even imagine...
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Wow...just wow.
I don't know you that much as I just started posting here this summer, Frank P, but I'm glad you're ok.
--RC
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bigpapi
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 31
Loc: Myrtle Beach, SC
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Looks like two rapidly deepening systems. may be more than expected for the Keys and South Florida. Those waters are unpredictable and rapid intensification is possible. Also Philippe's latest pressure by recon is down to 988. Looks like an interesting few days. I lived on Big Pine Key for a few years, I hope the many evacs over the past two years with no hits doesn't create a chicken little mentality down there.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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URNT12 KNHC 190111
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/00:23:40Z
B. 16 deg 17 min N
055 deg 52 min W
C. 850 mb 1367 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 299 deg 060 kt
G. 198 deg 007 nm
H. 988 mb
I. 16 C/ 1516 m
J. 23 C/ 1515 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. E12/20/15
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 0317A PHILIPPE OB 04
MAX FL WIND 60 KT SW QUAD 00:21:40 Z
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, OCCASIONAL MODERATE TURBULENCE
bumpy night for the AF guys!
pretty good drop in pressure for phil.... since estimated 5pm adv.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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bigpapi
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 31
Loc: Myrtle Beach, SC
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Looking at the big blow up in convection for . I'll tell you the area that storm is in bothers me a bit. If anyone is interested look at the track of the 35 Labor Day Hurricane. It formed in the same general area and was not a long tracker. I believe people are going to wake up tomorrow with little time to prepare for this. It also looks to be reforming a bit more north still.
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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Frank,
My sincerest sympathy to you and your entire family.
This is not spposed to make you feel any better, but this type of storm, as we all know from years of assumptions, analytics, research, and discussion, was inevetable.
It is only a matter of time until other major cities are completely destroyed - from Tampa Bay, to Miamia, to NYC. It is not a matter of "if", but "when". It might take 800 years or 4. We just don't know.
I wish you the most faith and toughness throughout this period. We all look to you for guidance and hope in this unforgetably arduos period.
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Looking at the big blow up in convection for . I'll tell you the area that storm is in bothers me a bit. If anyone is interested look at the track of the 35 Labor Day Hurricane. It formed in the same general area and was not a long tracker. I believe people are going to wake up tomorrow with little time to prepare for this. It also looks to be reforming a bit more north still.
I'm not familiar with the 35 Labor Day Hurricane but I'll take your word for it. has me very concerned, coming so soon on the heels of such devastation. It looks like the models are trending in a very bad way. The big blowout of cloud tops has calmed just a tad on the latest IR I've seen, but it's still alot better organized than it was a little over 2 hours ago.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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lawgator
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: E C Fla.
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Outflow to the south looking a lot better now on water vapor loop. Seems like the shear on that side of the storm must be relaxing. It will be interesting to see what happens when the outflow on the north side starts to run into that mass of dry air running SW to NE across the GOM and central Florida.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
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on the link you provided is the orange mist that runs horizontally across the state fron just south of ft myers to just north of cedar key dry air? or outflow? and is this what will keep the storm substantially south of ft. myers? Thanks!
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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phil....may be a hurricane or near 75mph... recon reported 83kts flight level winds...
not positive, but think there flying at 10000ft.... not sure of formula they use to est. surface winds.
URNT14 KNHC 190112
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
INBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01147 10575 12523 11616 25013
02149 20574 22526 21616 99005
03151 30572 32528 31716 99005
04152 40570 42525 41616 99005
05154 50568 52527 51715 27012
06156 60566 62524 61714 29013
07158 70564 72515 71812 26017
08159 80562 82506 81717 30018
09161 90560 92473 91916 30030
MF162 M0559 MF060
OBS 01 AT 23:50:40Z
OBS 09 AT 00:19:10Z
OBS 01 SFC WND /////
OUTBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01165 10557 12460 11515 12073
02167 20555 22507 21515 12045
03168 30553 32522 31616 13035
04170 40551 42526 41615 13047
05172 50550 52533 51514 14040
06174 60548 62537 61615 12032
MF164 M0557 MF083
OBS 01 AT 00:29:20Z
OBS 06 AT 00:53:30Z
OBS 06 SFC WND /////
AF309 0317A PHILIPPE OB 07
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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The orange air is a sign of very dry air in the mid-levels. It is moving from the east-northeast to the west-southwest over the state along the SE side of a very strong ridge of high pressure; this will keep moving more or less to the west and likely keep it south of peninsular Florida. By how much, however, is another question entirely. It could hit Cuba, or it could lash the Keys, or even go somewhere in between; we don't know quite yet.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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lawgator
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: E C Fla.
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Quote:
on the link you provided is the orange mist that runs horizontally across the state fron just south of ft myers to just north of cedar key dry air? or outflow? and is this what will keep the storm substantially south of ft. myers? Thanks!
The orange on water vapor indicates very dry air. Or at least that's my understanding. Will leave it to the much more informed mets on here to say whether that is what the thinks would keep it on a more westerly track, but yes, I think that is at least part of it. As long as that is there, I think it shoves the storm to the west. Again, listen to the mets on here more than us amateurs. We get it right sometimes. But usually by accident.
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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Parrish florida
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Thank you Clark! Just a novice here..
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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
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If you look at a larger sat image covering more of the U.S. it appears that the VERY dry air is going to have a break in it. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
If you look at a larger sat image covering more of the U.S. it appears that the VERY dry air is going to have a break in it. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html
I was just looking at the WV loops and it appears that the air over the peninsula is already getting "less dry" if you will.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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none of these systems should affect me right, not even the rain of the remnants?.....jk and whats this i hear about poss. tropical cyclone developement in the next 36 hours on the 1-2-3 Mariners Map?..has thta wave been names an invest yet and do people think it wil be our next TD-TS-HUR after ?
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Here you go, Hugh --
1935 Labor Day: http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/createstorm.asp?stormnum=620&year=1935
Rita: http://www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/Tropical/Gif/atl.latest.gif
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Ryan, it's Invest 97L and looks to be heading into the gulf:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_97.gif
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Also, look at the SST's that 's heading towards - wow - HOT: https://web1.navo.navy.mil/products/K10/moweryk10.gif
Here's an animated version with system position overlays: http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/movie.pl?sat+gif+10tttt+441+784+aor+sst
RC -- not so sure I'd say 97L is going into the Gulf...if it gets there, it's 10 days away. Perhaps you meant the Caribbean? --Clark
Edited by Clark (Mon Sep 19 2005 02:28 AM)
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