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Tropical Storm Warning extended north along coastal TX to San Luis Pass. Sprawling Storm 01L will likely be named Alberto within 24 hours.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 293 (Idalia) , Major: 293 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 293 (Idalia) Major: 293 (Idalia)
22.0N 92.6W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 999mb
Moving:
Nne at 6 mph
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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Rita Rita Rita [Re: jr928]
      #55562 - Wed Sep 21 2005 02:31 AM

Quote:

these latest models do show more northerly landfall than earlier today

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png




That CLP5 model scares the ... <insert 4-letter word of choice here> out of me! I don't like the BAMM models much either. BAMS looks like it's showing a WNW turn, then a WSW to SW turn, then a hard turn due north?!!? I've only see one hurricane in the Gulf do something like that (Elana in '85)... it's nerve-wracking. But that CLP5... go away CLP5!

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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stevie
Verified CFHC User


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Posts: 13
Loc: Clear Lake, Texas
Re: Rita Rita Rita [Re: jr928]
      #55563 - Wed Sep 21 2005 02:32 AM

seeing the line of cars leaving Galveston Isle reminds me alot of 1980 when Allen threatened this area. People left in droves

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Elaine H
Verified CFHC User


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Posts: 21
Re: downward spiral [Re: Random Chaos]
      #55564 - Wed Sep 21 2005 02:33 AM

where can I get a look at the latest models?

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Rita Rita Rita [Re: stevie]
      #55565 - Wed Sep 21 2005 02:34 AM

Quote:

seeing the line of cars leaving Galveston Isle reminds me alot of 1980 when Allen threatened this area. People left in droves




That's the best news I've heard all day. Hopefully they will all get out in time, if it heads that way.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
Re: downward spiral [Re: Clark]
      #55566 - Wed Sep 21 2005 02:35 AM

Clark & SH,
Thanks for posting great info. So basically Katrina almost bulls-eyed the loop current which pegs the heat content meter, but also had help from the South too. If would interesting to plot a satellite loop of Katrina over that heat content chart and watch the interaction.


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: downward spiral [Re: Random Chaos]
      #55567 - Wed Sep 21 2005 02:38 AM

SHIPS does not take land into account. The DSHIPS, or degenerate SHIPS, does and is used when storms do make landfall.

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La Nimo
Weather Watcher


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Posts: 42
Loc: st. pete beach
Re: Rita Rita Rita [Re: Hugh]
      #55568 - Wed Sep 21 2005 02:39 AM

no jog moving to the west maybe at 14mph now winds should be 110 att 11: from NHC

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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
Re: Rita Rita Rita [Re: La Nimo]
      #55569 - Wed Sep 21 2005 02:39 AM

Hurricane center located near 24.1n 83.2w at 21/0300z
position accurate within 15 nm

present movement toward the west or 275 degrees at 11 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 965 mb
eye diameter 30 nm
Max sustained winds 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt.



also, brings it up to 125kts with landfall at 120kts.

New Vortex Report on previous page with updated parameters.~danielw
measured 965mb
28nm Eye
Max FL Wind 103kt NE Quad at 00:19Z

Edited by danielw (Wed Sep 21 2005 02:49 AM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Rita Rita Rita [Re: La Nimo]
      #55571 - Wed Sep 21 2005 02:48 AM

Quote:

no jog moving to the west maybe at 14mph now winds should be 110 att 11: from NHC




Looks like the NW jog that I saw was immediately followed by a SW jog. Could have been alignment of the images. Looks like there is a small break in the SE eyewall right now, but that's probably temporary.
Forecast landfall is 140mph (120 kts).. with peak intensity at 145mph (125 kts).

I think I'll stay clear of the Louisiana coast just to be safe, even though it is forecast to level Houston.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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JoeF
Registered User


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Posts: 7
Loc: Tampa
Re: Rita Rita Rita [Re: Hugh]
      #55573 - Wed Sep 21 2005 02:57 AM

The eye should be leaving the KW Short Range shortly. Impressive site though.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kbyx.shtml


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Models [Re: Hugh]
      #55574 - Wed Sep 21 2005 02:57 AM

I checked the CLP5 average error in nautical miles against the other models.
I don't know the time of this run...it's not listed. Other than "Current Run"

Model 12 hrs 24 hrs 36 hrs 48 hrs 60 hrs 72 hrs 84 hrs 96 hrs 108 hrs 120 hrs
CLP5 _66.1_ 116.4_ 175.4_ 231.1_ 296.0_ 457.9_ 628.5_ 957.5_ N/A__ N/A

The only models with more error in the mileage are:
XTRP-straight line plot!
COCE

Strangely enough. They rank the other models against the CLP5.
http://hurricane.methaz.org/hurapak/AAL182005_perf.html

Edited by danielw (Wed Sep 21 2005 02:58 AM)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Models [Re: danielw]
      #55575 - Wed Sep 21 2005 02:58 AM

We've got a new thread btw

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ralphfl
Weather Master


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Posts: 435
Re: Rita Rita Rita [Re: JoeF]
      #55577 - Wed Sep 21 2005 03:01 AM

might as well get use to "its taking a north jog" that will happen now till landfall each time a frame goes by.

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