Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995

Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)

News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | (show all)

Posts: 576
Re: hi all [Re: Margie]
      #56595 - Thu Sep 22 2005 07:05 PM

The reasoning is sound enough... Essentially, the hurricane will take the path of least resistence. Unfortunately, one can not make a snap shot of the atmosphere and assume that 10 minutes (even) from now those parameters will persist. Not to insult you, but the dynamic of the synoptics precludes that as good wisdom.

Enter, the models...

Unfotunately, and it was stated earlier today, the large scale synoptic picture between the Atlantic SW Basin extending up into central and eastern NA has, for general appeal, changed little since Katrina. We note that with Katrina, the models were persistently left of the ultimate landfall location. The defining difference in the overall synoptics between the two events is the in Rita's case, it does seem that she's rattling around between higher heights - so it is a question of amplification over placement of blocking features.

For what it is worth...that's told me all along that the differences are a wash and Rita may just cause the models to have similar biases. Whether right for the right reasons or right for the wrong reason, I think we can admit at this point that the models have also been displaying somewhat of a left bias; particularly evident when compared to the progs from 2 days ago. This in mind, it would surprise me that her north component will accelerate in time, tonight. We'll see.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | (show all)

Extra information
0 registered and 1440 anonymous users are browsing this forum.


Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 85927

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center