OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Posts: 456
Loc: Longwood, FL
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What in the world going on with this storm. Deep conection has formed but what has happened to the eye?
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hawg92
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 14
Loc: Flagstaff, AZ
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The eye of the hurricane is a good 160-170 miles from my location as the crow flies. However we are still experiencing some serious wind gusts and rain squalls over here. I thought the storm's wind field would be reduced as it weakened, approaching land fall, but that does not appear to be the case. Amazing!
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We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence then, is not an act but a habit - Aristotle
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Posts: 456
Loc: Longwood, FL
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I would not place a lot of faith on radar in detecting the nature of the eye. Radar sometimes experiences difficulties in seeing the far side of the eye in storms like these.
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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to LisaMarie65 -- SW parts of Lafayette, close to water such as the Vermillion River, may have some flooding even though we are talking about 30 mi inland; The Pearl River flooded well inland of Bay St Louis, affecting towns and areas 10 mi upriver in MS with a surge that completely submerged the first floor of homes, trapping people in attics. The topography of southern LA coast is such that the surge could have effects pretty far inland. Even at this late hour, is there any safe evacuation route/destination that you would consider leaving for, right now? If evac is not possible now, and if you are in a vulnerable area, please take some precautions for possible flooding.
Flooding from storm surge is especially going to be a concern for any areas that are closer to bays and inlets such as from Crowley westward, even if they pretty far north from the coast.
to jmk818 -- actually a large portion of the central "finger" of Plaquemines Parish -- that is, of just the part of that parish that juts out into the Gulf -- was almost certainly completely underwater during a great deal of the time passed over. I believe waves were able to travel without obstruction across the inundated marsh and bayou, to batter the flooded towns bordering the MS River, in addition to the storm surge.
Here is a NOAA image of the type of havoc that storm surge and possibly waves on top of the surge did in one of these towns:
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24729709.jpg
Zoom in to see the detailed image by holding your cursor over the image, and then clicking on the box with arrows that appears in the lower RH corner.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 237
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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time for some comic tension relief:
http://americablog.blogspot.com/2005/09/is-that-hurricane-in-your-pocket.html
Cnn is saying that they're expecting up to 24 inches of rain in some areas inland in texas. That coupled with storm surge that MIGHT make it up the rivers by up to 20 miles. Wow, this is the sort of stuff that reversed the flow of the mississippi so many years ago huh?
I cannot beleive these morons on CNN who sit there in 125mph winds reporting what could be their own deaths if a piece of debris comes by and hits them. It reminds me of the main weather guy talking on his cellphone in LA during the movie, "The Day After Tomorrow" when the house runs him over. It makes me so mad that these guys might encourage people to stay during the next hurricane. If i'm Joe Q Public and i see someone STANDING in the middle of a vortex, i might say "hell, he can stand up in it, I might as well sit in my house instead of leaving next time".
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Posts: 435
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Hurricane Advisory Number 26
Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on September 23, 2005
...Eye of major Hurricane just a few hours from landfall near
the Texas/Louisiana border...
...Strong winds and heavy rains battering southern Louisiana and
southeastern Texas...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Sargent Texas to Morgan
City Louisiana. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane
conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should have
already been completed.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the southeastern
coast of Louisiana east of Morgan City to the mouth of the Pearl
River... including metropolitan New Orleans and Lake
Pontchartrain... and from south of Sargent Texas to Port Aransas
Texas. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24
hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane was located near
latitude 29.1 north... longitude 93.2 west or about 55 miles... 90
km... southeast of Sabine Pass along the Gulf Coast at the
Texas/Louisiana border.
Rita is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph... 19 km/hr. This
general motion is expected to continue until landfall. A gradual
turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph...195 km/hr...with higher
gusts. is a dangerous category three hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson scale. Little change in strength is expected prior
to landfall. Gradual weakening is expected after moves
inland.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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While I am seeing the "open eye" like everyone else. I used a site that has 4 levels of tilt on the Base Reflectivity.
The 3rd level up. indicated a 'bat wing' open area on the southern half of the Eye. Looping this level. The very heavy echoes are still rotating around the northern side of the eye.
Something that I think couldn't happen if the eye was open.
I'm wondering if the heavy rain on the northern Eye Wall is causing the radar to attenuate the echoes on the southern eyewall.
In other words...it's raining so hard that the radar can't see through it.
Just my thoughts...on the 'open eye' signature.
( I haven't looked at any satellite pics...so I'm blind in that respect)
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patrickbyers
Registered User
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Posts: 8
Loc: West Palm Beach Florida
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It has elongated because of the dry air from the south west and the cooler water as it aproaches the cost line. This storm will still maintain sustained wind of at least 120 miles per hour with gusts to 140.
I don't call 84 degrees being cooler water~danielw
Edited by danielw (Fri Sep 23 2005 10:58 PM)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
Radar is clearly showing a very open eye, but IR is showing deep convection fully wraping the core now, with some very cold cloudtops embedded. This thing's trying to reestablish it's core
I know! Especially evident on the IR. It really is amazing...but maybe not so surprising considering the pressure is still solidly in the Cat 4 range, never left it, and the temp diff at the eyewall is very strong, and outflow is still very strong.
From the 11pm discussion:
"The eyewall remains intact and intense... especially in the northern semicircle... with a radius of maximum winds of about 20 N mi... surrounded by dense and well-developed spiral banding. Velocities from the radar suggest that the surface winds have not fallen off much "
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Fri Sep 23 2005 11:09 PM)
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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Daniel, good call about the radar not seeing....i thought the same thing as the doppler adn satellite weren't corresponding.
Satellite Link
although, here's the Houston radar showing something similar.....
Houston
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Mike has posted a new thread
Please post there. Thanks
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Pressure falls the last hour: Beaumont 1.8 mb (to 988.3 mb), Lake Charles 0.3 mb (to 989.5 mb).
Three radars (Houston, Lake Charles, New Orleans) all indicate that the eye is open to the south, which is consistent with what the last plane was reporting (will there be another recon flight?... they are running out of time if there is). The feature I had been following as the partial eyewall seems to have accelerated to the WNW and merged with another rainband. I'm not exactly sure where I would put the center of circulation based on the radar at the moment. Regardless, the intense convective bands to the north of the system will be capable of producing very strong winds for anyone in their path. The stronger the convection, the more you get the higher winds aloft mixed down to the surface.
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jmk818
Registered User
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Posts: 8
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thanks for all your responses to my hypothetical question. I will post more when i look at the new data i missed when i went out to eat.
Justin
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nate77
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 80
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khou.com radar shows total eye wall collapse.
50 miles off coastline
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