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Alberto moving into Mexico, but large windfield causing surge flooding along Texas Coast. Also Invest 92L now being tracked east of the Bahamas.
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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Brown Brown
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Re: Severe Weather Possible [Re: jlauderdal]
      #57777 - Wed Oct 05 2005 11:30 AM

They underestimated Katrina and Rita. Both were supposed to be 3 maybe 4 before they hit the Gulf. They were 5's. They just underestimated Stan too, but couldn't be too far off since it hit land.

It's now officially Tropical Storm Tammy. Last night, the NHC didn't know if it was worth sending an airplane into. Mercifully, it's close to land and won't hit category 5 to embarrass them further.


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Beach
Weather Guru


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Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
Re: Severe Weather Possible [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #57778 - Wed Oct 05 2005 11:33 AM

Here are some good local links to view:
Local Radar: http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kmlb.shtml

Bouy 20 NM off shore:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41009


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Lsr1166
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Re: Severe Weather Possible [Re: Beach]
      #57779 - Wed Oct 05 2005 11:38 AM

WTNT31 KNHC 051121
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
730 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2005

...TROPICAL STORM FORMS JUST OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...

RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
CYCLONE HAS FORMED WITHIN THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER NORTH
OF THE BAHAMAS.

AT 730 AM EDT...1130Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


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craigm
Storm Tracker


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Re: Severe Weather Possible [Re: emackl]
      #57780 - Wed Oct 05 2005 11:42 AM

What an interesting pattern we're in! I know the attention is on T.S. Tammy right now, but let me throw this in the mix. Remember how the models had something spinning off of Stan a few days ago and heading NE. Take a look at the convective energy moving away, to the NE, from the remnants of Stan. All of the models are still developing something in the GOM in a couple days.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-ir4-loop.html

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist

Edited by craigm (Wed Oct 05 2005 11:44 AM)


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Hugh
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Re: Severe Weather Possible [Re: Brown Brown]
      #57784 - Wed Oct 05 2005 11:54 AM

Quote:

It's now officially Tropical Storm Tammy. Last night, the NHC didn't know if it was worth sending an airplane into. Mercifully, it's close to land and won't hit category 5 to embarrass them further.




Unless (until?) it crosses the coast and gets into the GOM, that is... which of course it's not forecast to do because they say it's moving NNW. I guess the people looking at the radar are blind.

The NHC has done a remarkable job this year in forecasting the tracks of hurricanes, though, so maybe the computer models which are showing a NNW movement will be right again. Of course, very few of them were showing the NNW movement 24 hours ago, but that was before there was a closed circulation. Time will tell.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Brown Brown
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Re: Severe Weather Possible [Re: Hugh]
      #57786 - Wed Oct 05 2005 12:02 PM

It's already close enough to land to limit it. And yes, the NHC has predicted the paths better than last year, but they keep saying a 5 will be a 3. Underestimated Stan, underestimated Tammy, something new is going on that they don't understand.

Part of the reason it was such a tragedy in New Orleans is that the NHC so badly underestimated Katrina, until it actually hit a category 5. Yeah, after it hit 5, they paniced, but it was no big deal as it entered the Gulf.

Considering how one would expect them to err on the side of caution, they are totally clueless about what's making the hurricanes so strong.


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Wxwatcher2
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Re: Severe Weather Possible [Re: Brown Brown]
      #57789 - Wed Oct 05 2005 12:09 PM



Tammy is simply a small tropical storm. I really doubt it will ever make it to hurricane status.

I know it's been a busy season with lots of damage in the Gulf Coast.
The NHC has done an excellent job. they've been watching this current disturbance for days and sent planes in at the right time and upgraded to Tropical Storm Tammy.
Last night around 9pm I could see a center of circulation on radar over Grand Bahama Island.
But to give the NHC grief over this is silly.


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craigm
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Re: Severe Weather Possible [Re: Brown Brown]
      #57790 - Wed Oct 05 2005 12:15 PM

Quote:

It's already close enough to land to limit it. And yes, the NHC has predicted the paths better than last year, but they keep saying a 5 will be a 3. Underestimated Stan, underestimated Tammy, something new is going on that they don't understand.

Part of the reason it was such a tragedy in New Orleans is that the NHC so badly underestimated Katrina, until it actually hit a category 5. Yeah, after it hit 5, they paniced, but it was no big deal as it entered the Gulf.

Considering how one would expect them to err on the side of caution, they are totally clueless about what's making the hurricanes so strong.




That's exactly what the NHC does on intensity they estimate. The science is not available to predict intensity accurately yet and they are the first to admit that fact. They do remarkably well with the track forecast however.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist


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Brown Brown
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Re: Severe Weather Possible [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #57791 - Wed Oct 05 2005 12:18 PM

Well, yeah, giving them grief over this, considering how they botched Katrina, is pretty thin soup. Not likely this one will kill a lot of people.

Last night I guaranteed it would be a tropical storm today, if not a hurricane. Unless it heads inland, it will be a hurricane by 5pm. Really ramping up in the last hour.

Last night, the NHC didn't know if it was worth sending out an airplane.

It's easy making an accurate prediction about strength. Just add two levels to whatever the NHC predicts.

it didn't exist last night. the NHC has done a better job forecast this year than anyone else. none of your comments are qualified, you're just randomly throwing mud at people. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Oct 05 2005 02:01 PM)


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Brown Brown
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Re: Severe Weather Possible [Re: Brown Brown]
      #57792 - Wed Oct 05 2005 12:20 PM

"That's exactly what the NHC does on intensity they estimate."

Underestimate. Almost every time. The absolute last thing you would want to do.

Before they always used to overestimate. Something new is going on that they don't understand. This is clear.
well, you'd better call them and tell them what to set the intensity at, and quit complaining to us. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Oct 05 2005 02:03 PM)


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Ed in Va
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Re: Severe Weather Possible [Re: Brown Brown]
      #57793 - Wed Oct 05 2005 12:23 PM

Tammy's discussion is up:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200521.disc.html

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Re: Severe Weather Possible [Re: Brown Brown]
      #57798 - Wed Oct 05 2005 12:37 PM

Quote:

Well, yeah, giving them grief over this, considering how they botched Katrina, is pretty thin soup. Not likely this one will kill a lot of people.

Last night I guaranteed it would be a tropical storm today, if not a hurricane. Unless it heads inland, it will be a hurricane by 5pm. Really ramping up in the last hour.

Last night, the NHC didn't know if it was worth sending out an airplane.

It's easy making an accurate prediction about strength. Just add two levels to whatever the NHC predicts.




Let me point something out: NHC does not predict Cat 4 and 5 generally. Why? Becuase the SHIPS model is a statistical model based from a decade long survey, and there were so few Cat 4 and 5 storms during that time that, simply speaking, they don't know what makes a system go from Cat 3 to Cat 4 or Cat 4 to Cat 5, or retain Cat 5 strength. Generally, if you see any prediction of Cat 3 or Cat 4 from NHC, you should immediately say "It's a major hurricane that could be anything from Cat 3 through Cat 5, depending on exact conditions."

GFDL model does a better job predicting strong storms, but it isn't consistant - one run makes a TS a Cat 5 in 24 hours and the next run dissipates it. How can you make an educated guess as to what a system is going to do when the models are so erratic?

The time averaged GFDL intensity is generally about the same as the SHIPS intensity, and both poorly predict anything over Category 3 or weak Category 4 storms.

You can't blame the NHC - they only work with the best models out there. Storms have always had a mind of their own - the intensity is purely a guess. Ever taken a look at the intensity charts NHC puts out? You'll notice that most systems that reach Cat 2 have a chance of hitting the Cat 4+ range, though generally fairly low. It's just like track: don't just follow the centerline.

--RC


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


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Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Severe Weather Possible [Re: Random Chaos]
      #57801 - Wed Oct 05 2005 01:03 PM

Good morning all. Uh oh, the large area of convection remaining over the Yucatan from Stan's strong feeder band that had reached into the Carribean, was not pulled into Mexico, and has quickly moved back into the warm waters of the Carribean south of Cozumel, as Stan dissipated and the remnants moved into the Pacific, and it looks like that low in the GOM could pull it up that direction, if it does not get sheared off into the Carribean south of Cuba -- or in general looks like some of Stan's remnents, or the large amt of energy still in the area, whatever you call it, could move that dir. Ick.

The other area of Stan that had been producing strong convection off Mex SW Pacific coast (fed by the energy of the remnants as they move offshore?) is still going strong.

Tammy is what she is, but it looks like, again, potential for something in the GOM, doesn't it? So many people along MS Gulf Coast still living under a tarp that they're holding up with debris they nailed tog...even the FEMA trailer city that will be complete 8-12 months from now, if it was there today, wouldn't be much shelter from another hurricane.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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