Clark
Meteorologist
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Early thinking is for a pretty climatological path for this one -- initially west for a few days at a relatively slow rate of speed before a turn toward the north and, ultimately, northeast. Everyone in the entire Gulf needs to watch this one, sure, but I would put the most likely region of impact from Cedar Key, FL southward...most likely between Sarasota and Key West. It's too early to have a lot of confidence in that, but that's what I'm looking at right now. We're getting pretty late in the season to see a monster storm, but there is precedence (Mitch 1998) for a very intense storm. I don't buy the 's solution quite yet, but with a favorable upper-level pattern, upper lows well to the E & NE providing potential outflow channels, and underlying water temperatures & heat content that are still well up there, the potential is certainly there to see a major hurricane out of the last name on the list. Would bank on slow but steady intensification over the next day or two followed by the potential for some more rapid intensification thereafter. Landfall, if the above holds, is looking to be around this time next week, give or take a day or so.
Complications could arise if this one heads west faster than anticipated...it'd likely end up in the Bay of Campeche region if it did so, with all bets off from there.
Stay tuned...this is certainly one a lot of people are going to need to watch and potentially need to make preparations for this week.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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from TAE afternoon discussion......
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LITTLE
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AS SAID ALL THIS
WEEK...THE VERY ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO SEND A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US. THANKS TO RIDGING
SURFACE AND ALOFT...NOT MUCH CHANCE OF ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS DIRECTLY
IMPACTING US HERE IN THE SOUTHEAST. ON TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT WILL LIKELY WASHOUT
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AS THE MAIN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ALIGNS TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY CAUSING FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE LEVELS. AT THE SAME TIME... THE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST US WILL EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SPAWN A RATHER
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THIS
TIME...AS STATED EARLIER IN THE WEEK...MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN US.
WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST US BY FRIDAY... A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
VERY LITTLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT. HAVE CONTINUED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS...BUT DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF ANY LARGE SCALE FORCING AND
INSTABILITY...HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SHOWERS AND NO MENTION OF THUNDER.
so looks like what someone wrote earlier..... the ohio valley will have a strong low up there.... if this sytem in carrib.. gets a going.... then it looks like late next week as clark said will be very busy for the eastern GOM..... just don't think we would have a strong cane that far up... maybe in western carrib... were the heat content is very warm... the gulf of mexico and the loop current is down some in heat
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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another monster looms in the western caribbean. we've seen this before. also seen a tendency in recent years for the big ones that form down there to go either left (mitch '98, keith '00) or right (lili '96, michelle '01) of florida. the only storm in recent years to hit florida from the south late in the season was irene in '99. like all the active years prior to this last couple we've had to contend with, there has been a persistent trend of tracks left and right of florida for the late season storms, while long-term climatology shows florida being the target more often (florida got hit by a whole lot of late season major hurricanes from the southwest and south in the first half of the 20th century). so anyhow, here we are again... situation with models showing erratic movment in the short term, and some long terms tracks suggesting a u.s. impact. from here it all depends on whether the trend reversal of storms favoring u.s. landfall tracks as opposed to staying out to sea or going into central america.. now applies to the october systems that frequent the caribbean.
preliminary judgment says that a westward drift with gradual and then rapid intensification, and a turn to the north, are what is in the cards. i'm thinking it will reach t.s. status tomorrow and hurricane around tuesday.. then jump categories rather quickly. best bet is that a hurricane will peak around mid week and then weaken as it curves up into florida. it could wash up the coast if that shortwave out over the plains gets it well enough... the threat for more heavy rains in the northeast will have to be watched beyond whatever hurricane impacts may befall florida around friday.
rabbit's idea that it may get stuck in the caribbean isn't out to lunch, either. there have been enough cases where these things confine themselves to the caribbean that i wouldn't discredit a continued westward motion. it'll have to do it rather quickly, though, as ridging will build to the east by midweek and heights will begin falling to the northwest. if there isn't a quick exit, the pattern is setting up for a classic october recurvature.
we're at the end of what is traditionally the dangerous part of the hurricane season. upcoming is likely to be the last big shot. of course, we have no idea what greek letter names will do to hurricanes....
HF 2235z15october
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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URNT12 KNHC 152159
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 15/21:43:30Z
B. 17 deg 58 min N
079 deg 11 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 216 deg 008 kt
G. 163 deg 043 nm
H. EXTRAP 1004 mb
I. 24 C/ 367 m
J. 24 C/ 361 m
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 15 nm
P. AF309 01IIA INVEST OB 16
MAX FL WIND 27 KT SE QUAD 20:23:20 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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sara33
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
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Hi,
The link to Col. State spaghetti models was on the front page and I can't seem to find it. Could someone please post the link? Thanks a million!
Christine
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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If this storm does come at Florida, what would cause it to weaken before hitting the state? Did you mean weaken after it makes landfall which further means that we may be facing a cat 3 or higher? Please speculate about the intensity you think it might be. Here i was thinking we were pretty much done with this season and the way you guys are talking we may be getting a or type storm on the central west coast of florida.
The water temp is barely 84 degrees around here and not much better a little south...not sure what it is in the Caribbean though. I also thought with the cold fronts pushing their way into the Gulf and Fla that that would push any storms more easterly and away from the state. I don't know...not an expert. This is why i am asking you all.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Posts: 576
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Quote:
Hi,
The link to Col. State spaghetti models was on the front page and I can't seem to find it. Could someone please post the link? Thanks a million!
Christine
Try: http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
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sara33
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
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(messages to thank someone should be sent via the PM capability - not posted. One line posts tend to consume bandwidth).
ED
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Oct 16 2005 04:32 PM)
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 318
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Wouldn't wish a or on anyone else. Enough for the season. Looks like we will get a out of this one.
Think there will be an Alpha before the season is over? Wouldn't that be the first time in recorded history? This will be an interesting
storm to follow, just hopefully not a major cane. was only a 3 and the damage here is overwhelming.
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Posts: 576
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Quote:
Quote:
Hi,
The link to Col. State spaghetti models was on the front page and I can't seem to find it. Could someone please post the link? Thanks a million!
Christine
Try: http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
...i'd suggest the impetus is in that header on the url, "early-track guidance", and is what is paramount there...
one thing that can be assumed from these early guess machine tracks is that the leeward islands are probably safe 
Edited by typhoon_tip (Sun Oct 16 2005 12:16 AM)
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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thanks... looked forward to going on tonight and hearing your thoughts
thanks for posting.. kept seeing it take a path similar to what you spoke of (cedar key..south of there, give or take)
speed right now determines a lot, the slower she goes... the less and less of a chance that she stays west
because... it's only a matter of time that something will lift her northward somewhere
thanks hank frank, everyone
appreciate your discussion more than words can express
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Posts: 576
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Quote:
Wouldn't wish a or on anyone else. Enough for the season. Looks like we will get a out of this one.
Think there will be an Alpha before the season is over? Wouldn't that be the first time in recorded history? This will be an interesting
storm to follow, just hopefully not a major cane. was only a 3 and the damage here is overwhelming.
Yeah know...i think right away of how really only fringed the NO area with outer bands/squalls and there was in immediate exacerbation of the levee failures/flooding. So, so fragile is that area - or at least was... I wonder how make-shift the plugs really are, or if a even a category 2 storm running up against that area of the Gulf wouldn't almost have to have a profoundly disasterous result... The fragility of the area that lays in the wake, wouldn't that augment the heck out of a category 2, maximizing it's distructive potential? Intuitively yes... It's really is a horrible, horrible prospect.. Just think what goes through the minds if they saw another psyclops out there with it's eye peering at them...
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Posts: 576
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Quote:
If this storm does come at Florida, what would cause it to weaken before hitting the state? Did you mean weaken after it makes landfall which further means that we may be facing a cat 3 or higher? Please speculate about the intensity you think it might be. Here i was thinking we were pretty much done with this season and the way you guys are talking we may be getting a or type storm on the central west coast of florida.
The water temp is barely 84 degrees around here and not much better a little south...not sure what it is in the Caribbean though. I also thought with the cold fronts pushing their way into the Gulf and Fla that that would push any storms more easterly and away from the state. I don't know...not an expert. This is why i am asking you all.
I cannot speak for HankFrank (and wouldn't quite frankly) but I can tell you that there are 3 conceivable reasons and forth that is more conceptual why "Wilma" may be weakened prior to a direct Florida strike.
a) Interaction with Cuba... I had a discussion with a person on here earlier where we were in a dissagreement about the amount Cuba can adversely affect hurricanes. The fact of the matter is, climatology suggest only "some" reduction in strength would be incurred should stray across.. The western aspect of the landmass has very low elevation - or not sufficiently tall enough to impede the large circumvellate of . Nevertheless, "any" interaction with Cuba would certainly punch a category 5 storm in the belly because at the envelope of intensity such as that, they ironically become prone to weakening at least excuse to do so.
b) Cooler water... and have processed the Gulf loop-current and Gulf waters in general considerably. Should cross from those warm tuck waters that are between Cuba and the Cayman Islands, she will likely get a big, big shot of octane... But then, the waters on the N side of the Islands drops by as much as 4.5C by the time you get to the latitude of the Florida Keys... You simply cannot maintain even a category 4 storm under such conditions, considering that the U/A is also not cold enough to compensate for less potential instability (cold upper atmosphere relative to SST can sometimes offset for SSTs of only 79F, a.k.a, Vince).
c) Shear... If goes ahead and evolves into a category 4/5 system and then starts interacting with veering steering field, those winds initially will be a hostile impactor. If she's moving smartly N before those winds are excited by the approaching s/w from the Nation's Heartland, then it is conceivable that she would not really be as adversely affected by them; moving along with the wind field means relative to the flow she is thus encountering limited shear vs. fighting those wind vectors off..
...The forth and conceptual notion was touched on, and that is that Category 5 intensity is seldom held for too long because it takes nearly perfect parametrics to maintain such intensities. Losing any one is bad. It seems that she will have a window to reach intensity, but then that window closes once the influence of said s/w NW begins to assert and influence over the Gulf as a whole.
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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"We have no idea what Greek names do to Hurricanes"
Well, if we are not being strictly scientific here, we can look at the names and syllables of names of media fetching sound bytes with An-drew, Bet-sy, Don-na, Op-al, Iv-an, of course the simple 2 syllable philosophy breaks down eventually into reality of the conditions and ebb and flow of the water, air pressures, and temperatures. I also want to remind those who are simply relying on water temperatures for protection, that sub tropical systems do not seem to have to rely on hot SSTs, nor any other particular hurricane rule to tear up the land,.and drown the fishes. So, here is to a weak thunderstorm over Cuba.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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The latest run has 24L peaking at 112 MPH..
Dave
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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New model out taking it to a Cat 3. Given the track record on the intensity forcasts for the last major storms this year, the running average of intensity is generally a fairly good average:
00Z predicted a weak Cat 5
06Z predicted a strong Cat 3
12Z predicted a strong Cat 5
18Z predicts a weak Cat 3
Based on the average of these model runs, I'd expect a Cat 4 out of this system right now. Even more amazing, none of the model runs are trying to disipate the system, so it might be that the Cat 5 runs aren't so far fetched.
The runs now take her into western Cuba heading north. The Gulf coast and all of Florida needs to watch this system. I don't think the SSTs in the Gulf will support yet another Cat 5 system, but we said the same thing when went through and look at what it did. If (yeah...it's almost certain she will be by morning...) heads toward the pan handle of FL, she will be heading over the worst oceanic conditions (in terms of SSTs). If she heads east, she'll hit land before having a chance to weaken much. If she heads west she will go up strait over the hot loop current. The track in the 5+ day period will be the determining factor for this storm's strength at landfall.
--RC
GFDL model runs: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
Hurricane Heat Potential: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/hh3.watl.20051015.gif
SSTs: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/sst2.watl.20051015.gif
(NRL SST/HHC Index for the above two links: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/all_watl.html)
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Posts: 576
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yep, though that looks little too weak considering what she will have to work with for the first 72 hours anyway.. where as the former runs looked too strong for climatology as well as her margin for success was razor thin in the - anywhere outside that spatial-temporal arrangement wouldn't do it.
Also, there is some question in my mind whether said weakness in the n gulf, associated with approaching trough from nw, will even be amplified enough to really get actively "moving" n.. she may just get tugged, then abandoned - i believed that was mentioned on this forum recently, anyway.
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Wow - I wonder how the values in http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/hh3.watl.20051015.gif
are derived and reduced, because if you look at
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/FS_km14nat00.gif
anything beneath ~37N in off the East Coast (for example) has average SST's of ~27C, where as the site that illustrates the "hurricane heat" has this same area at 0 content. Ummm....
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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When entering information for the models, like the , what do you enter? Vorticity? Sea Surface Pressure? What do i put in the fields??
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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If you want to know what the track is for the sea pressure it will show the various isobars of pressure at the time entered, say 00Z.
If you want to know about vorticity you have to be able to understand what the symbols mean but it lays out the wind fields in the area that is described by 98L or whatever storm.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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