Thunderbird12
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The latest SHIPS model (18Z run) has up to 99 knots in 96 hours, then back down to 90 knots at 120 hours, which would be near landfall time. The initial intensity was set at 45 knots, so appears to be anticipating that has intensified from the 40 knots on the 11AM advisory.
The initial intensity was set to almost due south (190 degrees) at 3 kts. I am having a hard time making out any motion from the satellite loop myself, since the center is obscured.
Edited by Thunderbird12 (Mon Oct 17 2005 06:36 PM)
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HURRICANELONNY
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I sure didn't think I would be posting in the middle of October. I thought the season would be over but you know what they say . It ain't over till it's over. Anyways wasn't Mitch suppose to head north then it went into Honduras. I don't know if will even get into the Gulf. The Models don't do such a good job down there in picking up systems. It could easily meander then head into Mexico. Until I see a northward movement I won't believe any model. 
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WeatherNut
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Its looking to me like the center is reforming a bit east of the 2pm fix, or the midlevel circulation isn't quite coupled w/ the LLC. Interesting note...as I recall both and had the same type situation prior to their rapid deepening. They did not quite have their act together but when everything lined up...BOOM. Also noticing a flare of convection to the NW of the center fix. might be getting herself lined up and ready to go
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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gogogabby007
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The local weatherman on 107.3 in Pensacola this afternoon said that the path of would be altered by whether or not a ridge of high pressure above FL weakens. She said if it weakened, it looked like it would come across the Panhandle and if not, Central FL would get the impact. How accurate is this and what is the likelihood of the high breaking down?
Thanks.
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Thunderbird12
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If I had to pinpoint a center, I would also put it a little east (and a little south) of the official center location. We'll find out soon enough, because a plane is in the area and should be in the center of the system in the next 30 minutes or so:
000
URNT11 KNHC 171850
97779 18474 20194 84200 61000 03025 58//8 /8035
RMK AF304 0324A OB 07
Edited by Thunderbird12 (Mon Oct 17 2005 07:17 PM)
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Clark
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You'd almost expect the coldest tops in IR (the cirrus debris you mention) to move in an anticyclonic fashion, being up near the outflow layer and all with a ridge of high pressure aloft above the storm. That's nothing unexpected or detrimental to the storm. There are some nice low-level outflow boundaries on the north & northeast sides of the storm right now, evidenced on visible imagery, with some gravity waves in the midst of the convection removed to the NE of the storm. Pretty cool to see on vis, even if they are a little hard to pick out from time to time.
Do expect that the center is reforming a bit further south & southeast right now, continuing a trend I've been watching the past few hours on satellite imagery. The warm area developing on IR imagery is just south of where I'd place the center; what appears to be some mid-level dry air is becoming entrained on the west & side quadrants of the storm, somewhat separating the large mass of convection (feeder band) to the south from the main core of the system. Impacts on intensity in the short-term? To be determined...need recon down there to tell us where it's at now strength-wise.
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doug
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The last visible gives a fix on the LLC, ringed with some convection, at close to 15.9/80.0 or a little SE of the previous as indicated.
If reorganization is underway, then all this discussion of models is quite irrelevant. Today we would have had no real net movement of any significance and a whole day passing in which all the other systems effecting the landfall solution HAVE NOT remained static...all bets are off.
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doug
Edited by doug (Mon Oct 17 2005 07:50 PM)
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dave foster
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In all the scramble to track have they forgotten 16E in the EPac?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir2-loop.html
Looks more than a TD to me.
Oops! Should have checked advisory 12, sorry...
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Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com
Edited by dave foster (Mon Oct 17 2005 11:02 PM)
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typhoon_tip
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Quote:
You'd almost expect the coldest tops in IR (the cirrus debris you mention) to move in an anticyclonic fashion, being up near the outflow layer and all with a ridge of high pressure aloft above the storm. That's nothing unexpected or detrimental to the storm. There are some nice low-level outflow boundaries on the north & northeast sides of the storm right now, evidenced on visible imagery, with some gravity waves in the midst of the convection removed to the NE of the storm. Pretty cool to see on vis, even if they are a little hard to pick out from time to time.
Do expect that the center is reforming a bit further south & southeast right now, continuing a trend I've been watching the past few hours on satellite imagery. The warm area developing on IR imagery is just south of where I'd place the center; what appears to be some mid-level dry air is becoming entrained on the west & side quadrants of the storm, somewhat separating the large mass of convection (feeder band) to the south from the main core of the system. Impacts on intensity in the short-term? To be determined...need recon down there to tell us where it's at now strength-wise.
Right; I too do not really see where the anticyclonic curl, whether centered in situ or not, would really serve as detriment.. But it is odd...perhaps a little to see skewness..
I do however see that as a fascinating behavior nonetheless.. I'm also interested in the asymetry of this as a whole. Folks on here have given mention to shearing in the environment but I don't find or see a source based on either my own interprative analysis of available sat, nor based on anything mentioned from HPC. It seems to be this is entirely perturbationally driven by nuances involved with the convection it's self.; maybe dry air involvement as well.
I also took note of the dry air entrainment issue as you say; in fact, there is a large envelopment of dry air that is pretty much butted up against 's general arena of genisis - NW. It will be interesting to see how well she fends this off... As she deepens, she'll be more able to incorporate these drier values by extending her pgf outward, and I suggest that is why you see these initial incursion that you mentioned. Her presentation during the afternoon has overall improved; likely portending a deeper surface pressure and greater ingest pulling in the dry air in question... (5pm may confirm this) This could be a problem for rapid intensification enthusiasts, that she gulps dry air in intervals - but then again, HPC likes the SHIPs compromise over the dreaded anyway. Of course, passed behavior has demonstrated that sometime dry air on the perimeters fools everyone by becoming less an issue with intensity- a.k.a. . ...Though didn't she subcumb a little bit... She did seem to max out prior to bumping into dry air over the western Gulf - haven't read any follow-up steady on her intensity curve...
Anywho...awesome to see those details in the vis. This has been a great day for observing g-wave phenom, as well as the the outflow, surface and aloft, as well as differentiating cloud structures.... totally cool!
I also agree with the center jump hypothesis.. I mentioned this earlier this morning I believed; the concern at the time being that with such limited convection in the N sector (pretty much as a whole) the circulation field would almost have to repond to where the persistent ascending air was distributed... No trouble believing that, being that it is consistent with understanding.
Lastly...tough to say for sure but I'm suspecting that the diurnal min is about at its vertex for the day.. I'm wondering if the last 3 hours denegration of activity is related to that?
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Lysis
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This is sort of off topic, but I didn’t want to make a whole new thread about it.
‘Gravity waves’… that sounds interesting. I am assuming you are referring to those little radial pulses I keep seeing from the center (?). I just did a search but what I got was a bit over my head, and generally in context with mesoscale systems and the sort, not tropical cyclones. I seem to remember talking about them with Keith before, but I don’t think I understood them then either.
Could you explain their mechanics and function just briefly?
Thanks. 
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cheers
Edited by Lysis (Mon Oct 17 2005 08:21 PM)
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Gerryla
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Has anyone seen or heard the latest recon.
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Bloodstar
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Recon Fix
15.83° N 79.87° W
989 Mb on pressure???
that's... a little suprising
ok, so 50Kt winds or will the winds take time to build up?
interesting
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Thunderbird12
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989 mb is lower than expected, though the system does appear to be well organized on satellite, even as the cloud tops have generally warmed (a new burst of convection near the center in the last couple of frames, though). The plane hasn't been it what figures to be the windiest part of the storm, so it will be interesting to see what it finds with time.
The center was probably a little further south than what they thought late last night and early this morning, which would have put it closer to the very deep convection that was around earlier, possibly accounting for the greater deepening than expected.
Edited by Thunderbird12 (Mon Oct 17 2005 08:34 PM)
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doug
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Looks like the vortex message suggests presure at 989, but no significant increase in estimated surface winds. The vortex fix was at 15.9/79.9
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doug
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typhoon_tip
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Quote:
This is sort of off topic, but I didn’t want to make a whole new thread about it.
‘Gravity waves’… that sounds interesting. I am assuming you are referring to those little radial pulses I keep seeing from the center (?). I just did a search but what I got was a bit over my head, and generally in context with mesoscale systems and the sort, not tropical cyclones. I seem to remember talking about them with Keith before, but I don’t think I understood them then either.
Could you explain their mechanics and function just briefly?
Thanks.
"Functionality" may be too complex for this forum. The short and skinny way of saying them, they are oscillations caused by the displacement of an air parcel which is restored to its initial position by gravity. This restoring force is dependent on native conditions to the parcel of air, such as lapse rate and moist adiabatic process for gravity waves born of convective processes, or dry adiabatic for clear are restoring momentum - which I think we all can agree is what takes place in is convective.
Gravity waves are not just restricted to mesoscale phenomena...though they do tend to exist at the mesoscale. Mid latitude bombogenisis and deep isentropic lift events also have been noted to produce these...and they can a beta-mesoscale, which is darn close to a regional synopsis. That is rarer, however... Mostly they are interesting organized band on clear days, sometimes seen in macro alto-cumulous sheets... Beautiful!! They are often characterized radial configuration emminating outward from the point of origin, which is vertically displaced air. Lee side mountain waves are gravity waves... Actually, so is the wake wave behind a boat in the ocean for that matter...
Is this helpful?
Edited by typhoon_tip (Mon Oct 17 2005 08:46 PM)
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Colleen A.
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The winds could take a while to catch up with the drop in pressure..how many times have we seen that? 
Looks like the is starting to believe more and more in those models....take a look at the 5pm track. Hard hook to the right.
Of course, this is all subject to change once RECON gets in there and gets more info to .
I hope.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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dave foster
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Wilma's still bucking the trend and going south..
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Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com
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Bloodstar
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newest recon indicates a ragged eyewall has formed:
October 17, 2005 21:32:50 Zulu
L. OPEN W
M. E05/18/8
RAGGED EYE WALL
15.77° N 79.88°
winds still aren't very high... but it's getting it's act together.
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Thunderbird12
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18Z has shifted back to the right again through 84 hours, with the center of passing over the western tip of Cuba. After that, the track is similar to the previous run, taking the storm NE over the Keys and south FL.
Exactly how this storm approaches the Gulf (if it does at all) and how quickly it makes a possible turn to the NE will have an impact on its intensity when it potentially threatens Florida. First of all, if it brushes the Yucutan or Cuba, it is more likely to weaken somewhat than if it shoots through the Yucutan channel. If it makes more of a gradual bend to the NE, it will track farther north, spending more time over increasingly cool water in an environment of increasing wind shear. If it makes a sharp turn to the E, it will impact sooner and further south, where the shear will be somewhat less. Occasionally, you will see storms undergo a baroclinically enhanced intensification as they are captured by a mid-level system. Such intensification is usually temporary, but if it makes a quick southern landfall after turning to the NE, that may be a factor as well. Obviously, other factors will have an impact on intensity as well, such as any eyewall-replacement cycles that may occur if the system becomes very strong over the NW Carribbean.
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sara33
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Where can I find the most recent 18Z . I can only find the 12Z which I found through the link on the front page.
Thanks!
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