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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Crossing Florida? [Re: dave foster]
      #58627 - Tue Oct 18 2005 06:29 AM

Quote:

Wilma is stuck in the doldrums yet again. If she doesn't find steering for quite a while as the NHC are suggesting then will she continue to intensify, in situ, or is there a chance that she might start to decay?




It really depends upon how long she sits and spins, and where. If she were to find a current and sit and spin over it, the intensity would go up. If she were to sit and stir the water elsewhere, ultimately the water would cool down.

Looking at the IR4 loop.... IF that is an eye developing (not confident that it is yet), the storm is beginning to move northward, it appears to me, and is a LOT stronger than 70 mph (you typically don't see an eye on a cat 1 hurricane). Looking closely, though... I think the LLC is south of the eye feature. Still, it looks like it will get pulled north sooner rather than later - going closer to the tip of Cuba than the Yucatan peninsula.

Update: "Eye" feature was short-lived. Next IR4 image showed VERY cold cloud tops (the black things again)... but still looks to me like it's moving NW or NNW (there is definately a west component, and if the LLC is under that black area, there is a north component too).

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Tue Oct 18 2005 06:43 AM)


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Cindi
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 18
Loc: Panama City, FL
Re: Crossing Florida? [Re: Hugh]
      #58628 - Tue Oct 18 2005 06:45 AM

So, is Panama City out of the woods yet? Or do we still need to keep an eye on this storm. We are having a big Youth Night/going away party for one of our YOuth on Friday night.

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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: Crossing Florida? [Re: Cindi]
      #58629 - Tue Oct 18 2005 06:50 AM

Nobody is out of the woods yet, but I'm watching the Euro, which has not budged since yesterday, taking the storm into the south central Florida coast and exiting the east coast near Indian river county near sebastian inlet, I would expect though, based on the current guidance that you should be ok up there, but things change. Just keep an eye on updates from the NHC.

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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
Re: Recon Update [Re: Multi-Decadal Signal]
      #58631 - Tue Oct 18 2005 07:19 AM

Quote:

Good evening Gents. If she lands as a cat 3...
How much category strength would be lost by Wilma if she crossed straight from Naples to Fort Lauderdale like Alligator Alley (Rt 75) does? Distance is about 110 miles and runway is 90 (dead east). Florida is 1/2 water and almost sea level all across. Not a good thing.




not much since the system will be moving at 20+ based on model guidance, there will be shear but it will be from behind the storm and not across it


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
Re: Crossing Florida? [Re: LadyStorm]
      #58632 - Tue Oct 18 2005 07:20 AM

I live in Port Orange, we are no where near being out of the woods. This can move just a little and we will get what we got last year with charlie or a little worse, so keep watching.

NEW THREAD UP

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
Cause of potential FL hit [Re: NewWatcher]
      #58633 - Tue Oct 18 2005 07:34 AM

I'm sorry everyone. This is entirely my fault. You see, this past weekend, I decided to try out for a local soccer team after wanting to get back into things over the past several years. We have a game lined up for Sunday.

Yup, all my fault here. I should just wash my car to seal the deal. Then again, I could board up today and cause the storm to inexplicably steer away...

decisions, decisions...

Seems the usual round of "should I" has already started in earnest, and that's not necessarily a bad thing. It's better to ponder now than to ignore this storm until it's closer. For now, nobody in the peninsula is necessarily safe. As the tracks get better input and the guidance is more decisive, then we'll be able to make recommendations.

As for the "stay for Cat 3 and under", that really ought to have been qualified a little better:

If you are not in a flood prone area AND you are not in a mobile home AND you are not in an early pre-fab (newer pre-fab buildings are actually very strong), AND you are more than 10-15 feet above sea level AND you are not on the coast, THEN you should be able to ride this out at Cat 3 or lower. Don't rely on neighbors who have ridden storms out before to make your decision - use storm surge maps, SLOSH models, and every other piece of data you can find. Make an informed decision and please stock up your hurricane supplies if they are diminished.

If you're going to evacuate, make your reservations early (and confirm them), and try to not run screaming from the building (as it tends to scare small children ).

I think for the sake of levity, someone should break out Dave Barry's Hurricane preparedness article.

Dave Barry's 2001 Hurricane Preparedness Guide


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Crossing Florida? [Re: Steve H1]
      #58634 - Tue Oct 18 2005 07:35 AM

Good morning, all. I see the track has shifted back east. I'm beginning to get a feeling about Wilma. She's a high-maintenance girl.

Finally the NHC 5am disc acknowledged that the high over the GOM is still not going anywhere, despite the forecast; and then what does it do, but immediately start to move the last couple of hours, LOL, with corresponding movement from Wilma. None of the data on the Navy site seems to be very current so I can't find any scans to look at the banding under the convection, and it is a little hard for me to get a handle on where her center is, but since they mentioned the convection is more symmetric, it appears she may be a little N of the track points (which, btw, look like shades of Camille; thank goodness it isn't August and there's hardly any likelyhood of a northern track once rounded Cuba).

Now I think it is possible that Wilma is going to go higher than a Cat 3 in the Caribbean. This newest track is over some of the warmest deep waters that are left. However, NHC doesn't forecast this, and they know a lot more than I do, so we'll see, but I did see the word "intense" hurricane so I think that it's possible they're laying the ground for ramping up the intensity forecast, since they have a limited set of hurricane adjectives, at the NHC, and use them sparingly. Notice how the stupid frenzy over global warming, and short collective memory, has them throwing this kind of thing into the discussion:

"WILMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBEAN SEA...TYPICAL OF THOSE HURRICANES WHICH COMMONLY OCCURRED IN OCTOBER DURING THE 30'S 40'S AND 50'S. THIS IS NOTHING NEW."

And what they say is true. I remember my parents and grandparents talking about Hazel (well, she didn't form in the same place, but there were a lot of major hurricanes in the 40s and 50s, esp along the ATL coastline).

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 100
Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
Re: Crossing Florida? [Re: NewWatcher]
      #58636 - Tue Oct 18 2005 07:37 AM

As of right now nobody is a point. The Gulf coast is a point and maybe not even that. If and when Wima starts moving North but it looks like it's starting, then maybe the NHC could have a better fix on it. Remember the models are just a guidance not a point.

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Ed G
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 77
Loc: Clermont, Fl
Re: Cause of potential FL hit [Re: tpratch]
      #58637 - Tue Oct 18 2005 07:47 AM

sorry tpratch, it's actually my fault.

Six months ago I planned and obtained wilderness permits for a five day backpacking trip beginning thursday!

Now I'm pretty sure that I should cut the trip short and drive south from Georgia into the oncoming storm in order to get those roof vent caps and storm panels installed.

Good luck all.

Ed G
Clermont, Fl


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