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NHC advisories to begin shortly on Storm 01L (Potential Tropical Cyclone 01L) in the Western Gulf. Elsewhere, low east of Bahamas being tracked.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)
20.3N 93.2W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1001mb
Nnw at 7 mph
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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Weather Watcher

Posts: 46
Re: not confident [Re: danielw]
      #60552 - Fri Oct 21 2005 11:29 AM

It seems like we're pretty much hearing "The whole FL peninsula is going to get hit by a hurricane." I mean, I've made sure the family and friends are prepared, but even in the short term things seem very very nebulous... seems like every time I look at a loop the storm's going in a different direction. I don't think there will be a whole lot of certainty until the day of landfall. Looks like this will be pretty bad for whoever it hits.

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Registered User

Posts: 4
Re: not confident [Re: danielw]
      #60553 - Fri Oct 21 2005 11:36 AM

thanks for the reply.i will keep posted to local stations and this site.that would be great if we had more info this afternoon you can bet the NHC are hoping this is the last one this season.i was thinking of visiting some poeple out of state so i will keep posted.traffic should be fine tonight.stay safe

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Weather Hobbyist

Posts: 50
Loc: Tampa, FL
Re: 5 a.m. [Re: Hugh]
      #60554 - Fri Oct 21 2005 11:38 AM

There seems to be a lot of discussion about how slow Wilma is moving and that the models have it almost stalling out. It appears to me to be moving fairly steadily (albeit not that fast) based on the radar loop and satellite loops. If you look at the position as of 4:00CDT and the position at 10:00PM CDT just taking into consideration the northward component (too early for real math) it has moved around 40 Nautical miles in 6 hours, or between 6 and 7 MPH; which confirms NOAA's 6 MPH.

Personally, it appears from the angle and speed from the loops that the eye may be just off Cozumel by this evening; which appears different than the models or the 3 day TPC Graphic.

As a Newbie poster (longtime lurker) I was wondering what indications people see that it reallly is slowing down/stalling out as the models and others are saying; and for that matter where are the indications that it will start to head into the tip of the Yucatan.


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Registered User

Posts: 4
Re: not confident [Re: BullitNutz]
      #60558 - Fri Oct 21 2005 11:44 AM

yeah its a wide storm .hard to say.i was just thinking how nice the wheather was and this thing just blew up into a monster lets hope something changes for the better its been some hurricane season

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Storm Tracker

Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
Re: 5 a.m. [Re: Geoff]
      #60560 - Fri Oct 21 2005 11:48 AM

The 06 GFDL has her at 20.5 N in 30 hours. She better stop on a dime if that's going to hold true!

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Weather Guru

Posts: 132
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
Re: not confident [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #60561 - Fri Oct 21 2005 11:48 AM

[quote Friday afternoons in Lakeland are excruciating and a 4 mile drive under normal conditions can take 20 minutes if the traffic lights are out of sequence or there is a slow moving vehicle ahead. The anxiety level from an evacuation is multiplied 2x the IQ of a turkey divided by the lack of enough evacuation routes ten to the one billionth power.


ROFL! You must be a cracker. I nearly fell out of my chair laughing at your post. Florida traffic has indeed gone from bad to worse with the mass influx of those escaping the snow. I live in Cortez, just a few miles from I-75, but a full 40 minute drive on a good day. I truly cannot imagine the nightmare of evacuation traffic from Anna Maria Island and Longboat Key added to our "normal" bumper to bumper life. It might make US-1 in the keys look like a turnpike.

Thanks for the humor and the evacuation reminder: Leave early and often. :-)


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Weather Guru

Posts: 132
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
Meandering storms [Re: emackl]
      #60562 - Fri Oct 21 2005 11:52 AM

I know there has been a lot of discussion about how a hurricane cannot or won't "turn on a dime". Having watched storms avidly for ten years, I know they can, do, and will change and even reverse directions given the right conditions.

I was wondering if someone with a better memory or more time for research could come up with a list of 5 or so storms with impressive meanderin and/or /reversal paths?

Betsy comes to mind immediately but I couldn't think of others.


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst

Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Meandering storms [Re: Bev]
      #60563 - Fri Oct 21 2005 11:53 AM

** DING!

New thread people

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Ed G
Weather Hobbyist

Posts: 77
Loc: Clermont, Fl
Re: 5 a.m. [Re: jlauderdal]
      #60567 - Fri Oct 21 2005 11:59 AM

have to agree jlauderdal,

I have zero confidence in the BAMM or BAMD models (at least this year).

This season my confidence goes with the NHC and GFDL models.

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Storm Tracker

Posts: 337
Re: not confident [Re: Bev]
      #60569 - Fri Oct 21 2005 12:06 PM

Talking about evacuation and Florida traffic.
As a long time (lifelong) resident, I've of course seen phenominal growth in Florida. When I ocassionally express to newcomers that the paradise they see today is a horror to me, they look at me as if I'm out of my mind. Florida is no longer the paradise it once was.
As a result of the enormous population growth that continues to take place in Florida, our roads or "lack" of them continues to be one of our biggest problems. As stated in a previous post, on a good day, normal commutes now take an hour when 10 years ago they took 20 minutes.
Multiply that by the fact that there are only a handfull of N/S and E/W roads on which to dump out evacuation traffic and you have a logistical nighmare on your hands. This is why so many choose to simply stay home and ride it out.

With all that said, I would still choose to leave than stay if I lived along the coast in direct path of Hurricane Wilma. I would hope that the lessons learned from Katrina would not be wasted on the citizens of the Florida coast. Please listen to the advise of your local governmental authorities and prepare.
If nothing else, Wilma has given us more than ample time to be prepared for her pass over our state.

The fact that you have come to this board and are taking the time to read other peoples posts and opinions means that you are far ahead of most of the population that simply depends on the "news media" to give them their hurricane news. I could and sometimes do turn off the media in favor of sites such as this.
Believe me, we are as up to date and informed as any of the talking heads on your Television set.

Stay safe everyone and be prepared. Once Wilma is past, I hope we can put this season to bed but now is not the time to let your guard down anywhere along the Florida Penninsula from Cedar Key to the Keys.

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