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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
spring cleaning [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #65163 - Sat May 13 2006 07:39 PM

Jeepers I'm doing the laundry and Ed's cleaning house at CFHC. Just a typical weekend.

Ed this was for the ATL:

"I think the first tropical wave of the season deserves a new thread, don't you?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html "

Look at the ITCZ between 40-45W.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Posting Protocol [Re: Margie]
      #65165 - Sat May 13 2006 08:04 PM

Margie et al:
When you respond to a previous post (or series of posts) that were not posted in the proper Forum and that previous post is later moved to the correct Forum, all responses to that post are moved with it - even if your particular post was made in the proper Forum. The best way to avoid this is not to respond to a post that appears to have been made in the wrong Forum.

Instead, simply respond to the Main News Article (and change the title to fit your post if you wish). Its simply just the way that the system works, but this is certainly the better time of the 'season' to emphasize this system posting protocol.
ED


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Aye aye mon capitan :-) [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #65173 - Sun May 14 2006 10:17 AM

Looked at the central ATL sat this morning, and where oh where has that tropical wave gone? Where oh where can it be? With it's low level circulation too far to the SW (from this morning's TWD) and it's convection -- poof! -- gone, oh where oh where can it be. Where oh where will that tropical wave go, oh where oh where will it go? With the jet stream and ridge shifting, will it just squeak into the Caribbean, oh where oh where will it go?

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: What is this??? [Re: Margie]
      #65190 - Sun May 14 2006 10:43 PM Attachment (450 downloads)

I am watching the westpac cyclone with great interest. However...I am very perplexed with what I am seeing along th atlantic ITCZ...and frankly, I don't like it for later on. My attachment is of a current satellite image, and granted, this looked better earlier today, but this is only at 4-5 degrees north, its May, and it's healthy with a mid level rotation at best. We're not supposed to be observing that activity at this time of year or that far south at any time of year, right? I was under the influence the 8 North was about the extent of it....

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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
Re: What is this??? [Re: dem05]
      #65192 - Sun May 14 2006 10:51 PM

Its just the ITCZ beginning to reawaken. I wouldn't worry about it.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: What is this??? [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #65198 - Mon May 15 2006 01:53 AM

I agree to disagree...To quote the dearly depararted John Hope of the Weather Channel, "We typically don't look past the Carribean until late July, everything beyond there is quiet til then due to cooler waters." It used to be that way, and I grew up watching it that way every day in the summer. I've been watching the tropics since I was 8 (I'm 29 now), I haven't known of anything to look like that during this time of year. Anomolous or not, someone is getting quite the boat ride within the duldrums of the deep central Atlantic today. While it very well may not become full fledged, it held it's own for quite some time since departing Africa (About a quarter of the way across). I still think its highly bizzare to see the oragnization I've seen in that system I attatched (for any time of year) since its between 4-5 degrees north, but I'd like to see/know of an example of it from the past if someone has seen it before. I know I've never seen one make it that far (or that far south) at this time of year for sure...so after watching for so many years...this may be an educational opportunity.

Edited by dem05 (Mon May 15 2006 01:55 AM)


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 459
Loc: Georgia Tech
Re: What is this??? [Re: dem05]
      #65200 - Mon May 15 2006 06:54 AM

Quote:

I agree to disagree...To quote the dearly depararted John Hope of the Weather Channel, "We typically don't look past the Carribean until late July, everything beyond there is quiet til then due to cooler waters." It used to be that way, and I grew up watching it that way every day in the summer. I've been watching the tropics since I was 8 (I'm 29 now), I haven't known of anything to look like that during this time of year. Anomolous or not, someone is getting quite the boat ride within the duldrums of the deep central Atlantic today. While it very well may not become full fledged, it held it's own for quite some time since departing Africa (About a quarter of the way across). I still think its highly bizzare to see the oragnization I've seen in that system I attatched (for any time of year) since its between 4-5 degrees north, but I'd like to see/know of an example of it from the past if someone has seen it before. I know I've never seen one make it that far (or that far south) at this time of year for sure...so after watching for so many years...this may be an educational opportunity.




Meh. While I tend to look for anything unusual that may crop up. Keep in mind that Transient features occur all the time in the tropics. The most important key to any sort of tropical activity is presistence.

Mind you, there's a lot of interesting things going on in the atlantic, (Water temps have cooled down, but for a while were running at least 1 degree centigrade above average for most of the basin) So certainly keeping an eye on things is always good.

The way I look at it, if i see an interesting feature, I go back, 6 hours, if the feature was there at that point, I'll go back another 6 just to make sure. From there, who knows what may happen, but if a feature is there for 12 hours, then perhaps it'll stick around long enough to pick up steam and become something more significant.

Here's hoping for a season with 0 storms.
-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
U. Arizona PhD program starting August 2022


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: What is this??? [Re: Bloodstar]
      #65203 - Mon May 15 2006 10:04 AM

I am noticing the energy coming off the Texas/Mexican Coast. A good soaking rain for Florida or just a tease? These are the things that make the early season make lumps in one's throat. We have not had our hurricane Tax free week yet.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: National Hurricane Conference [Re: MikeC]
      #65205 - Mon May 15 2006 12:13 PM

post deleted.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed May 17 2006 02:08 PM)


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Cat 5orBust
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 90
Re: times of change [Re: MikeC]
      #65206 - Mon May 15 2006 12:18 PM

i haven't done enough research over time when there has been an increase of activity over a period of time, but in this current time period where we have seen an increase in activity and intensity, are the reliable "trends" that we know that typically occur during the season get thrown out the window? are we in a whole new era of hurricane season where we can pretty much throw out the norms that happen in a given year? ex: will storms form in areas that you typically wouldn't see them forming at a given time in the season? will the storms get stronger even though they might be in an area where they shouldn't strengthen? or is there just so much focus spent on what happened last year and and how water temps are a bit warmer that there just seems to be a lot more talk about the upcoming season? or is it that mother nature is going to say all bets are off and go against the normal tendencies of a given season?

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: times of change [Re: Cat 5orBust]
      #65214 - Mon May 15 2006 06:40 PM

I think the big answer to your questions is: we really don't know. Everyone's got a theory, but no one's theories really mesh with everyone else's nor is there a consensus on the issue. It'll be debated for years, as it already has, and really about all we can do right now is sit back and watch. With the data in the past being of the quality that it is, modeling studies aren't going to tell us a whole lot (and even if they did, people are going to disagree on it).

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Spoken
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
Re: Aye aye mon capitan :-) [Re: Margie]
      #65238 - Tue May 16 2006 05:09 AM

It looks like your tropical wave is hugging the coast of South America, approaching the Leeward Isles and about to enter the Caribbean. It's moving more or less opposite of high level winds in that region. However, high level winds at the western end of the Caribbean appear to be moving in an anticyclonic pattern, currently allowing convection to linger relatively undisturbed (before dissipating) near the center a few degrees north of the eastern end of the Isthmus of Panama. Admittedly I have no idea if your tropical wave will continue in that direction. And even if it did I still have no idea what would happen when it got there.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html


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Spoken
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
Re: Aye aye mon capitan :-) [Re: Margie]
      #65258 - Thu May 18 2006 05:41 PM

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS COMBINING WITH THE FRONT IN THE W CARIBBEAN TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 15N W OF 73W. THE WAVE IS BEST TRACKED USING LONG-TERM SATELLITE LOOPS AND CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OVER S AMERICA.

...and so it looks like your tropical wave is moving westward through the Caribbean. And generating isolated thunderstorms, which appear to be dissipating in a ridge through which the wave seems to be passing.


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